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Predictions graded

Filip Misolic #474Austria1Sebastian Gima #590Romania2

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 3-6Mon 21 Sept 2026, 08:05 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFilip Misolic · 116 places

Filip Misolic

Austria

Misolic, 25, lists clay as his favourite surface and reached a career-high No. 76 in February 2026. He returned to tour on 31 August after a six-month plantar-fascia injury absence.

Current ranking: #474
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Sebastian Gima

Romania

Gima, 24, is a left-hander with a listed career-best singles ranking of No. 436. No reliable current preferred-surface designation was located.

Current ranking: #590
Peak ranking: #436
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 09:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Gima's longer, steadier clay season meets Misolic's sharper recent clay results in this Plovdiv qualifying match, with Misolic's first month back from a six-month foot absence the unknown in the middle.

Misolic is the slightly likelier winner, but the 1.12 quoted on him asks for far more than his 3-11 recent record justifies. The reviewed price with something in it is Gima at 6.

Context

The absence began when Misolic retired in Lille in February with a right plantar-fascia rupture, and his return date was . This match comes three weeks into his resumed schedule, which gives necessary context to both his ranking and his current tournament route. His 20 September qualifying win in Plovdiv confirms that he has resumed match play. No current report identifies a restriction for this match.
- Misolic's return followed a six-month absence caused by a right plantar-fascia injury.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 09:19 · Europe/BucharestMisolic feiert Comeback bei US Opensport.orf.at · 31 Aug 2026
Those 14 matches averaged 19.1 total games with no set tiebreak, so the sets have generally been decided by a break rather than a shoot-out. Gima's first-set return is the softest part of his record — 4.0 games won against 4.8 lost — yet he is above water in second sets, which is why the opening set matters more than usual here. Only three of the 14 matches went to a third set, so falling behind has usually been decisive rather than recoverable.
- Gima's clay set evidence covers 14 completed best-of-three matches from 30 June to 20 September 2026.
- First sets: 5 wins, 9 losses, averaging 4.0 games won and 4.79 lost; second sets: 8 wins, 6 losses, averaging 4.57 won and 3.93 lost.
- The 14 matches averaged 19.1 total games, with three three-set finishes and no set tiebreak.
The sample is small enough that his 2-2 surface record and 23.75 average games per match work better as a recent snapshot than as a settled level. He won the opening set in three of those four matches and both wins came in straight sets, which is the clearest support for him starting well here. The excluded retirement is a reminder of how thin his post-return clay evidence is; it says nothing about his availability for this match.
- Misolic's clay set evidence covers four completed matches from 8 to 20 September 2026: two 2-0 wins and two 1-2 losses.
- He won the opening set three times in four, averaging 5.0 games won and 4.75 lost; total games averaged 23.75 per match.
- One further clay match in the same window was excluded as a retirement.
The appointment came during the return-to-play programme after Misolic had been sidelined from February. It provides background on the support structure around him in his first tournament weeks back. The information predates Plovdiv by more than three months. No current account identifies a coaching-led technical or physical change relevant to Gima.
- Misolic added Luka Kutanjac to his team while rehabilitating a right plantar-fascia injury.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 09:19 · Europe/BucharestMisolic arbeitet mit neuem Trainer an Comebacksport.orf.at · 15 Jun 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic has the better recent clay wins against stronger opponents and a clear opening-set advantage, giving him a narrow edge in a close match.
- Misolic is 2-2 on clay in his last four completed matches, beating opponents ranked 238 and 665.
- Gima is 8-7 on clay over 15 matches, winning 52.5% of games and 51.8% of points.
- Gima has lost the first set in 9 of his 14 clay matches, while Misolic has won it in 3 of 4.
- Misolic returned in late August after six months out with a right plantar-fascia injury.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFilip MisolicEstimated chance52%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined second-set games trail this line, and neither player reaches tiebreak territory often on clay.
- Gima's clay second sets average 8.5 games.
- Gima has no set tiebreak in 14 clay matches.
- The two players' combined clay second-set average is about 8.7 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set games average sits below this line, so short opening sets are the more likely outcome.
- Gima's clay first sets average 8.8 total games.
- Misolic's clay first sets average 9.8 games but only across four matches.
- Combined, the two players' clay first sets average about 9.0 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches have often ended in short straight sets, which keeps the match total below this line more often than not.
- Gima's 14 clay matches average 19.1 total games.
- Eleven of those 14 matches were settled in straight sets.
- Misolic's recent two-set win over Lopez Morillo ended 7-5 6-1.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent clay results, so two sets is the more likely match length.
- Gima's 14 clay matches produced only three three-set outcomes.
- Gima averages 2.21 sets per completed clay match.
- Misolic's two clay wins were both straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gima's habit of starting slowly on clay gives Misolic the better chance of taking the opening set.
- Misolic has won the opening set in 3 of his 4 recent clay matches.
- Gima's clay first-set record is 5 wins and 9 losses.
- Gima averages 4.0 games won and 4.8 lost in first sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFilip MisolicEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been Gima's stronger set on clay, so Misolic holds only a marginal advantage there.
- Misolic has won the second set in 3 of 4 recent clay matches, averaging 6.0 games won in that set.
- Gima is 8-6 in second sets on clay.
- Only one tiebreak appears across the combined 18 clay matches in the set evidence.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFilip MisolicEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sets in these players' recent clay matches usually break before 6-6, making a tiebreak unlikely.
- Gima's 14 clay matches contain no set tiebreak.
- Gima's clay sets average 8.8 and 8.5 games, well short of 6-6.
- Only 1 of 18 combined clay matches in the set evidence featured a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Filip Misolic

3W 12L

7-5 6-1#665Imanol Lopez Morillo

4-6 7-5 6-4#737Matyas Cerny

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#257Mika Brunold

6-4 6-0#238Henri Squire

6-4 6-3 7-5#23Francisco Cerundolo

6-1 1-1 ret.#62Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#204Lorenzo Giustino

6-2 6-3 6-3#30Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-5 6-3#93Alexander Shevchenko

7-5 6-4—Daniel Jovanovski

6-3 6-3#85Rinky Hijikata

6-1 6-3#7Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-7(3) 6-1#94Alex Molcan

1-6 7-6(4) 6-4#208Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 6-4#9Alex De Minaur

Sebastian Gima

8W 7L

6-1 6-3—Aleksandar Tolev

6-1 5-7 10-4#875Denys Klok

6-3 6-2#809Kristijan Juhas

6-3 6-4—Jovan Bjelobrk

6-3 6-4—Tudor Batin

7-5 6-0—Vlad Cristian Breazu

6-2 6-4#874Anas Mazdrashki

6-1 6-4—Matteo Vavassori

6-2 6-2—Rares Andrei Golescu

6-4 4-6 7-5—Tudor Batin

3-6 6-1 6-1—Giovanni Ciocca

6-2 6-2#846Francesco Ferrari

6-1 6-3—Matei Florin Breazu

5-7 6-1 6-1—Gabriele Thomas Brancatelli

6-2 6-1#228Guido Ivan Justo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFilip MisolicMisolic

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Sebastian GimaGimaSG

Sebastian Gima carries the stronger recent form — Filip Misolic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1558.2%+3.9pp62.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.1%+1.4pp68.5%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1544.4%+5.4pp49.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.6+1.91.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.51.0 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1537.8%+5.6pp43.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1537.4%+8.1pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1558.3%—58.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.0%+3.8pp51.8%

Serve · 1–4

58.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.9pp62.1%

67.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.4pp68.5%

44.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.4pp49.8%

3.6Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.91.7

3.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.0 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

37.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.6pp43.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

37.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+8.1pp45.5%

58.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—58.3%

Points · 0–1

48.0%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.8pp51.8%