ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Dali Blanch #334United States2Sandro Kopp #305Austria0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Mon 21 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSandro Kopp · 29 places

Dali Blanch

United States

Blanch, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup and lists clay as his preferred surface. A career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 284 came in June 2026, and his 2026 record is concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #334
Peak ranking: #284 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Sandro Kopp

Austria

Kopp, 26, is the right-hander in this matchup, and his available 2026 record sits entirely on clay. A reliably dated career-high ranking was not confirmed against his current No. 305.

Current ranking: #305
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 10:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Kopp has the better clay numbers and won their most recent meeting in straight sets, but he has lost his last three on the surface, so this first-round tie is not a mismatch — Kopp is the likelier winner.

The 1.65 on a Kopp win asks more than the clay record justifies. The one reviewed price with room is Kopp to win 2-0 at 2.4.

Context

Their two 2026 meetings both ended in straight sets and are split between them: Blanch won 6-3, 6-2 at Košice, then Kopp won 6-3, 6-3 at Plovdiv, both on clay. Because the wins cancel out, neither result settles the matchup on its own, and the later June meeting is the stronger reference point. Their recent records differ, five wins in Blanch's last 15 matches against eight for Kopp, which adds weight to the June outcome.
- Blanch won 6-3, 6-2 at Košice .
- Kopp won 6-3, 6-3 at Plovdiv .
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 10:48 · Europe/BucharestATP Tour — Košice match archivewww.atptour.com · 28 May 2026ATP Tour — Plovdiv resultswww.atptour.com · 25 Jun 2026
On 27 August Kopp removed No. 2 seed Martin Krumich 6-2, 6-4 to reach the semi-finals at Augsburg, where Cezar Crețu then ended the run 6-3, 7-5. Beating a seeded opponent in a Challenger quarter-final is the strongest recent marker in Kopp's record going into this Italian event. The reference has a limit: his next two recorded appearances in early September both ended in straight-set defeats.
- Kopp defeated Martin Krumich 6-2, 6-4 in the quarter-finals.
- Cezar Crețu defeated Kopp 6-3, 7-5 in the semi-finals.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 10:48 · Europe/BucharestATP Tour — Augsburg resultswww.atptour.com · 28 Aug 2026
Kopp arrives at Genoa with a clay record whose results have been settled in straight sets in 13 of his last 15 matches on the surface.
Kopp's clay record reads 8-7, but the shape of it matters more than the win-loss split: his matches average 2.13 sets and 19.3 games, and only two of the 15 went the distance. Four of the 15 contained a tiebreak. The sample is small, and the pattern cuts both ways — it says his clay results are decided quickly, not which way they fall.
- Kopp's 15 clay matches from 19 July to 7 September average 2.13 sets and 19.3 games.
- Thirteen of the 15 finished in straight sets, seven wins and six defeats.
- Four of the 15 matches contained a tiebreak.
Blanch's recent clay work has been longer and lower-scoring than his opponent's, with more sets and games per match.
Blanch is 4-9 in that clay window and has won 41.9% of sets (13/31) and 48.4% of games (139/287). His opening sets average 9.7 games and his second sets 8.8, with four of the 13 matches containing a tiebreak. Eight of the 13 finished in straight sets and five went to a third. The samples are small and recent, but they point to longer matches on his side of the net than Kopp's record suggests.
- Blanch's 13 clay matches from 12 June to 15 September average 22.1 games and 2.38 sets.
- Five of the 13 went to a third set and eight finished in straight sets.
- Blanch has won 41.9% of sets (13/31) and 48.4% of games (139/287) on clay in that window.
- Four of the 13 matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Sandro Kopp

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

−2.6ppshort

Kopp has served and returned better than Blanch over a similar clay sample and won their most recent meeting.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sandro Kopp

1.65fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 60.6%

−3.6ppshort

Kopp has started clay matches better than Blanch, which fits his stronger serving.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Kopp has served and returned better than Blanch over a similar clay sample and won their most recent meeting.
- Kopp is 8-7 on clay in this window with 51.3% of total points won (934/1819)
- Clay serve splits: Kopp 66.7% first serves in and 53.8% second-serve points won, Blanch 56.9% and 47.4%
- Kopp won the later of the two 2026 clay meetings 6-3, 6-3
- 13 of Kopp's 15 clay matches finished in straight sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSandro KoppEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average under nine games, pointing to the shorter side.
- Blanch's second clay sets average 8.8 games
- Kopp's second clay sets average 9.1 games
- One second-set tiebreak each in 13-15 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two clay averages sit either side of the line, with Kopp's shorter matches slightly outweighing Blanch's longer ones.
- Blanch's clay matches average 22.1 games; Kopp's average 19.3
- Kopp's clay matches average 2.13 sets, Blanch's 2.38
- Both 2026 clay meetings finished in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopp's quicker starts slightly favour a shorter opening set.
- Kopp's opening clay sets average 9.1 games
- Blanch's opening clay sets average 9.7 games
- Kopp has won 9 of 15 opening sets on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches have mostly finished in straight sets, and their two meetings did as well.
- Kopp's 15 clay matches produced 13 straight-set results (7 wins, 6 losses)
- Blanch's 13 clay matches produced 8 straight-set results
- Both 2026 clay meetings were decided in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Kopp has started clay matches better than Blanch, which fits his stronger serving.
- Kopp has won the opening set in 9 of 15 clay matches
- His average clay opening set is 4.9 games won to 4.2 lost
- Blanch is 6-7 in opening clay sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSandro KoppEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopp has the better overall clay record and second sets often decide his matches.
- Kopp is 7-8 in second sets on clay
- Blanch is 7-6 in second sets
- 13 of Kopp's 15 clay matches were decided in straight sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSandro KoppEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's clay ace rate gets close to ten combined, so the lower side is favoured.
- Blanch averages 4.9 aces per clay match; Kopp averages 3.0
- Kopp's 45 aces across 15 clay matches is the lower rate
- Both figures come from 13-15 clay matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have appeared in only about a quarter of each player's clay matches.
- Blanch's 13 clay matches included 4 tiebreaks; Kopp's 15 included 4
- Both 2026 clay meetings finished without a tiebreak
- Combined clay break points saved sit near 58% and 60%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay double-fault rate sits below the line, helped by Kopp's low rate.
- Kopp averages 1.8 double faults per clay match (27 in 15)
- Blanch averages 3.8 per clay match (50 in 13)
- Combined average is about 5.6 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance64%

Dali Blanch

5W 10L

6-2 6-2#233Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-2 1-6 6-2#453Ivan Gakhov

6-2 6-0—Jan Chlodnicki

6-3 3-6 6-1#272Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#460Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 3-6 7-5#267Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-2#540Rudolf Molleker

6-4 7-6(3)#380Tommaso Compagnucci

6-2 6-2—Samuel Zannoni

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#166Tom Gentzsch

7-5 3-6 7-6(3)—Mickael Kaouk

6-3 6-3#305Sandro Kopp

6-2 6-3#568Lorenzo Angelini

6-4 6-2#795Dinko Dinev

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#211David Jorda Sanchis

Sandro Kopp

8W 7L

7-6(5) 6-2#237Matias Soto

6-3 6-3#353Norbert Gombos

6-3 7-5#271Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#256Martin Krumich

7-6(3) 6-4#257Mika Brunold

6-1 6-7(4) 6-1#361Eduardo Ribeiro

3-6 6-1 6-4#422Benjamin Hassan

6-4 6-1#524Luca Wiedenmann

6-1 6-1#358Sebastian Sorger

7-6(6) 6-3#358Sebastian Sorger

6-4 6-4#832Adrian Andreev

6-1 6-3#494Federico Arnaboldi

6-2 6-2—Leonardo Borrelli

6-2 6-1—Gabriel Sardo

6-0 6-4#270Kilian Feldbausch

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DBDali BlanchBlanch

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Sandro KoppKoppSK

Sandro Kopp carries the stronger recent form — Dali Blanch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1556.7%+10.0pp66.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1568.9%+1.5pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1545.1%+8.7pp53.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/156.0+3.03.0

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.32.5 fewer1.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1539.5%—38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1541.9%+2.1pp39.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.1%+4.2pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.1%+2.2pp51.3%

Serve · 1–4

56.7%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+10.0pp66.7%

68.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.5pp70.4%

45.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.7pp53.8%

6.0Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.03.0

4.3Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.5 fewer1.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

41.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.1pp39.8%

56.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+4.2pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp51.3%

Dali Blanch

Sandro Kopp

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sandro Kopp 2-0

Sandro Kopp

Sandro Kopp

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Dali Blanch

Sandro Kopp

Stat Battle