FranceSaint-Tropez - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Yanis Ghazouani Durand #547France0Karl Poling #457United States2

Sets 2-6 · 1-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 13:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions1–713%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKarl Poling · 90 places

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

Ghazouani Durand, 26, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand. His No. 547 ranking on 14 September 2026 was a career high.

Current ranking: #547
Peak ranking: #547 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Karl Poling

United States

Poling, 27, is a left-hander. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 452 on 24 August 2026.

Current ranking: #457
Peak ranking: #452 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 12:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Durand has the better recent serve/return and form profile, but Poling's hard-court competitiveness and both players' deciding-set history make this a tight match.

Best angles are Over 21.5 games, Over 5.5 double faults, tiebreak Yes, and Poling +3.5 games; avoid Durand at 1.50 and the 2-0 straight-sets price.

Context

Ghazouani Durand, 547, is a right-hander who has built his career indoors, with 72 of 124 wins on indoor hard. Poling, 457, is a left-hander who plays most of his tennis on outdoor hard.
Ghazouani Durand's 10-5 record and 54.3% of games won sit against Poling's 8-7, but the serve numbers pull the other way: Poling lands 68.8% of first serves, wins 52.9% of second-serve points and double-faults 2.6 times a match, against 60.3%, 46.8% and 5.2. Ghazouani Durand leads on return points won (44.6% to 39.5%) and first-serve points won (67.4% to 62.7%), so the match turns on whether Poling's accuracy outweighs his weaker return.
- Last-15 window, all 15 matches tracked: Ghazouani Durand 10-5 with 54.3% of games won; Poling 8-7 with 50.0% of games won.
- Same window serve split: Poling 68.8% first serves in, 52.9% second-serve points won and 2.6 double faults a match; Ghazouani Durand 60.3%, 46.8% and 5.2.
- Return points won: Ghazouani Durand 44.6% against Poling's 39.5%; first-serve points won 67.4% to 62.7%.
- Twelve of Ghazouani Durand's 15 recent opponents were ranked outside the top 600 or unranked, and his two most recent defeats came to Maestrelli (169) and Budkov Kjaer (147).
Ghazouani Durand and Poling both come through qualifying at Saint-Tropez, meeting in the first round on 20 September with hard courts listed as the event surface.
Because this is qualifying, the loser has no second match here, so both players start under the same single-elimination condition rather than one holding a scheduling advantage. On the shared hard court, the recent serve and return numbers point toward Ghazouani Durand, although Poling's small ranking advantage is the counterweight.
- The event schedule places their pairing under Qualifying 1st Round and lists hard as the surface.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 12:15 · Europe/BucharestSaint-Tropez Open 2026 Men's Singles Scoreswww.mykhel.com · 20 Sep 2026
Ghazouani Durand, 547, has 72 of his 124 career wins on indoor hard and 37 on outdoor hard. Poling, 457, has 58 of 111 wins on outdoor hard and 21 indoors, and played 35 outdoor hard matches during 2026.
In 2026 Ghazouani Durand has 26 indoor hard matches (17-9) against nine outdoors (6-3), while Poling has 35 outdoor hard matches (19-16) and only eight indoors (2-6). Four of Ghazouani Durand's last 15 matches were on hard courts and he won three, so the surface reads slightly against him on a small sample. Poling's heavier outdoor schedule is the clearer side of the split, though his 19-16 outdoor record shows it has not produced a strong winning edge.
- 2026 surface records: Ghazouani Durand 17-9 indoor hard, 6-3 outdoor hard, 11-8 clay; Poling 19-16 outdoor hard, 2-6 indoor hard, 3-3 clay.
- Career wins: Ghazouani Durand 72 indoor hard, 37 outdoor hard, 15 clay; Poling 58 outdoor hard, 32 clay, 21 indoor hard.
- Ghazouani Durand's last-15 hard-court split is 3-1 from only four tracked matches, so it is a small sample.
Ghazouani Durand, 547, had just completed a five-day run at his previous tournament before travelling to St-Tropez. Poling, 457, has had a much lighter competitive schedule in the weeks before this event.
Ghazouani Durand lost his last match 4-6 7-6(3) 6-3 to Maestrelli on 17 September, three days before this qualifying round, and his 15-match average duration is 113.9 minutes. Poling's only match since 25 August was a three-tiebreak defeat to Slavic on 13 September that ran about three hours, so he is rested but short of recent match play. Neither side shows a heavy fatigue flag, so the effect is limited.
- Ghazouani Durand's recent log shows matches on 13, 14, 15 and 17 September, ending with a three-set defeat.
- Poling's recent log shows a single match between 25 August and this qualifying round: a 7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(5) loss to Nikola Slavic (878) on 13 September.
- Poling's one indoor-hard match in the last-15 window lasted 186 minutes; Ghazouani Durand's 15-match average is 113.9 minutes.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Structured last-15 serve/return and points-won numbers favor the home player on hard court, outweighing Poling's small ranking edge and confirming the surface-fit and recent-form signals.
- Last 15 matches: 10-5 (66.7%) and 51.9% total points won, vs Poling 8-7 (53.3%) and 49.7%
- Recent-window serve/return edge: 1st-serve points won 67.4% and return points won 44.6% vs Poling 62.7% / 39.5% (15 matches each)
- Career baseline: 60.8% match win rate vs Poling 51.9%; 2026 hard-court record 6-3 vs Poling 19-16
- H2H: no prior meetings; Poling ranked 457, home 547, so ranking edge is marginal
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent windows show high 3-set volume and long matches, and Poling's games-per-match profile strongly pushes the combined total above a standard line.
- Poling's last 15 averaged 27.5 total games per match (412 games / 15)
- Home's last 15 averaged 22.6 total games per match (339 games / 15)
- 9 of Poling's last 15 and 8 of home's last 15 went to a deciding set
- Average match durations: 127.6 min (Poling) and 113.9 min (home)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' last-15 profiles point to tight, long matches with small game margins, so a +3.5 cushion for Poling is well supported by the format-dynamics and recent-form signals.
- Home's last 15 record is only 10-5 with a 54.3% games-won rate, a thin margin profile
- 8 of home's last 15 matches went to a deciding set, compressing winning margins
- Poling's last 15 games-won rate is 50.0% with 9 three-setters, keeping scorelines close
- Poling's 2nd-serve points won 52.9% limits blowout risk on his own serve
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKarl Poling +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close game-winning rates and a high 3-set tendency from both recent windows suggest a competitive, extended opening set.
- Home's last 15 averaged 22.6 total games per match
- Poling's last 15 averaged 27.5 total games per match
- Both players show near-even games-won rates (54.3% vs 50.0%), implying competitive sets
- Poling's most recent match featured three tiebreak-level sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The home player's stronger recent serve numbers and marginally better first-set conversion give him a small edge to take the opener.
- Home career first-set win conversion is 86%, slightly above Poling's 85%
- Home's recent 1st-serve points won (67.4%) outpaces Poling (62.7%) over 15 matches
- Poling lost the opening set in several recent defeats (vs Fancutt, Sakellaridis, Kim)
- Hard-court setting confirmed for the qualifying round
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent 3-set rate across both players' last-15 windows sits above 50%, supporting a match that goes the distance.
- 9 of Poling's last 15 matches went to a deciding set (60%)
- 8 of home's last 15 matches went to a deciding set (53%)
- Poling's recent average set-score profile includes many 7-6 / 7-5 sets
- Both players' career deciding-set win rates are near 52-53%, indicating frequent deciders
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home's stronger return and break-point conversion give him a modest edge to take the second set if the match extends.
- Home's recent return-points-won rate (44.6%) exceeds Poling's (39.5%) over 15 matches
- Home's break-point conversion (43.6%) is above Poling's (37.9%)
- Poling's recent losses include straight-set and third-set defeats to lower-ranked opponents
- No H2H data to suggest a Poling matchup edge
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate from both players' last-15 windows sits well above the 5.5 line, driven by home's high fault volume and modest first-serve percentage.
- Home averages 5.2 double faults per match across his last 15 tracked matches
- Poling averages 2.6 double faults per match across his last 15 tracked matches
- Combined recent average is roughly 7.8 double faults per match
- Home's recent first-serve-in rate is only 60.3%, exposing more second serves
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Very close recent scorelines and a high tiebreak density in both last-15 windows make at least one tiebreak likely in a tight hard-court qualifier.
- Poling's last match alone produced three tiebreaks (7-6 6-7 7-6 vs Slavic)
- Poling has multiple 7-6 sets across his last 15 matches (e.g. vs Nefve, Fancutt, Alvarez Valdes)
- Home also recorded tiebreak sets in his last 15 (vs Maestrelli, Budkov Kjaer, Crivellaro)
- Both players' games-won rates are near 50-54%, indicating tight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's recent serve profile is ace-heavy, so the combined total is likely to stay under a mid-range line despite the small hard-court sample caveats.
- Home averages 2.7 aces per match across his last 15
- Poling averages 1.9 aces per match across his last 15
- Poling's hard-court sample shows just 1.7 aces per match (14 matches tracked)
- Home's hard-court sample shows 4.3 aces per match over only 4 tracked matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance57%

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

10W 5L

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#169Francesco Maestrelli

6-1 6-4#663Leo Raquillet

4-6 6-3 6-2#878Nikola Slavic

6-3 2-6 6-4#830Gijs Brouwer

6-1 7-6(7)#147Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2-6 6-3 7-5#625Maxime Janvier

6-1 6-3#663Leo Raquillet

6-3 6-2—Gray Voelzke

7-5 1-6 6-3#893Szymon Kielan

2-6 6-2 6-2#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 6-1#634Gabriele Bosio

0-6 6-4 6-2#893Peter Buldorini

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-2#435Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 6-3—Arthur Bellegy

Karl Poling

8W 7L

7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#878Nikola Slavic

6-4 6-3#699Thomas Fancutt

3-6 6-3 6-2#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#759Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)—Nikita Filin

7-6(1) 6-4#866Axel Nefve

3-6 7-6(7) 6-1#699Thomas Fancutt

6-4 6-4#873Jesse Flores

6-2 6-4#629Aidan Kim

3-6 6-3 7-5#323Tyler Zink

6-3 6-4#635Kokoro Isomura

7-6(5) 5-7 7-5#452Kenta Miyoshi

4-6 6-3 6-3#755Matt Kuhar

6-3 6-4#452Kenta Miyoshi

7-5 6-7(3) 7-5—Maxime St-Hilaire

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YDYanis Ghazouani DurandDurand

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Karl PolingPolingKP

Yanis Ghazouani Durand carries the stronger recent form — Karl Poling's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.3%+8.5pp68.8%

1st Serve Won67.4%+4.7pp62.7%

2nd Serve Won46.8%+6.1pp52.9%

Aces / Match2.7+0.81.9

Double Faults / Match5.22.6 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.6%+5.1pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.6%+5.7pp37.9%

Break Pts Saved56.8%—57.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+2.2pp49.7%

Serve · 2–3

60.3%1st Serve In+8.5pp68.8%

67.4%1st Serve Won+4.7pp62.7%

46.8%2nd Serve Won+6.1pp52.9%

2.7Aces / Match+0.81.9

5.2Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

44.6%Return Pts Won+5.1pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

43.6%Break Pts Converted+5.7pp37.9%

56.8%Break Pts Saved—57.4%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+2.2pp49.7%