United StatesSan Diego - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Timo Legout #535France2Darian King #7660

Sets 6-2 · 6-0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 23:20 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions9–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimo Legout · 231 places

Timo Legout

France

French right-hander who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 406 on 29 May 2023. The supplied structured data lists him at No. 535; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #535
Peak ranking: #406 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Darian King

King, 34, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ATP singles ranking was No. 106 in May 2017.

Current ranking: #766
Peak ranking: #106 · 2017
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 15:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Legout is a strong favorite over King on hard courts, with superior recent form, serve-return numbers, and a 444 vs 766 ranking edge.

The match-winner price at 1.10 offers no value, so the better angles are Legout -3.5 games, under 21.5 total games, and under 2.5 sets. King at 5.75 is an avoid given his weak recent hard-court return profile.

Context

Legout, 24, is a French right-hander ranked No. 444 who has played almost exclusively on hard courts in 2026, going 26-9 at that level. King, 33, is a Barbadian right-hander ranked No. 766 with a long hard-court history but a much lighter recent schedule.
Legout's last-15 hard-court sample covers all 15 matches and shows 12 wins, 62.1% of games won and 71.8% of first-serve points won. King's hard-court sample covers 13 matches with 6 wins and 51% of total points won. The recent results point one way, but King's career hard-court record of 293 wins shows he is not a routine qualifying opponent.
- Legout last 15 on hard: 12-3, 62.1% games won, 71.8% first-serve points won (15 matches tracked).
- King last 15 on hard: 6-7, 52.8% games won, 68% first-serve points won (13 matches tracked).
- Legout's 2026 hard-court record is 26-9; King's is 1-1.
King, 33, has a career spanning more than 15 years and 665 matches, but his 2026 schedule has been sparse. Legout, 24, is in the middle of a busy hard-court swing in the United States.
King's recent form log shows only two matches since January 2026, both in July, and no competitive matches in the two months before this event. Legout played four matches at a hard-court event the week before, winning three. A long layoff can mean fresher legs but also less match sharpness, while Legout's quick turnaround could be a factor if the match goes long.
- King's last recorded match was a 7-5 6-1 loss on July 20, 2026.
- King has two matches in his recent form log since January 2026.
- Legout played four matches between September 13 and September 17, 2026, winning three.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Timo Legout

1.10fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Legout's well-covered recent Hard window shows a clear serve/return structural edge over King, but the quoted 1.10 price already overstates that edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Legout's well-covered recent Hard window shows a clear serve/return structural edge (71.8% first-serve points won, 45.7% return points won) plus a 12-3 form run, while King's 7-8 recent record and weak second-serve/return numbers give no counterweight.
- Legout last-15 (all Hard, 15 matches tracked): 12-3 record, 79.3% sets won, 62.1% games won
- Legout last-15 serve/return: 71.8% first-serve points won, 54% second-serve points won, 45.7% return points won, 64.5% break points saved
- King last-15 (13 Hard of 15 tracked): 7-8 record, 52.8% games won on Hard, 40.5% return points won, 46.8% second-serve points won
- Ranking gap: Legout 444 vs King 766; King's most recent match was a 7-5 6-1 loss on 2026-07-20
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance82%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's recent Hard matches have mostly finished in straight sets with few games, and King's low return-point yield (40.5%) reduces the likelihood of long, break-heavy sets.
- Legout last-15 average match duration 93 minutes with 62.1% games won, indicating lopsided scorelines
- Legout's last 4 completed San Diego matches: 6-1 6-4, 6-3 6-4, 6-1 6-4, 7-6(6) 6-2 — three under 21 games
- King last-15 Hard average duration 86.1 minutes, 52.8% games won
- No H2H meetings on record, so no history of extended sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's game-winning rate and recent margins of 5-7 games per match support covering a -3.5 handicap against a King side with a weak recent return profile.
- Legout last-15 Hard: 62.1% games won vs King's 52.8% on Hard
- Legout's recent San Diego margins: +7, +5, +7, +3 games
- King last-15 Hard: 40.5% return points won, 46.8% second-serve points won
- King's 2026 Hard record 1-1 with limited recent match volume
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTimo Legout -3.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's pattern of fast opening sets in this event and King's weak return numbers favor a short first set, though the 7-6 outlier keeps confidence low.
- Legout's recent San Diego opening sets: 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, 6-7(6) — three of four under 9.5 games
- Legout last-15 Hard: 62.1% games won, indicating early dominance
- King last-15 Hard: 52.8% games won, 40.5% return points won
- King's last match opening set was a 5-7 loss
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's dominant set-level and game-level recent Hard numbers plus a 90% career first-set conversion rate make him the stronger opening-set side against a King who splits sets near 50% recently.
- Legout last-15: 79.3% of sets won (23/29) and 62.1% of games won across 15 Hard matches
- Legout career firstSetWinConversion 90%, supporting front-running profile
- King last-15 Hard: 51.7% sets won (15/29), 52.8% games won
- King's last completed match (2026-07-20) was a straight-sets loss, dropping the opening set 7-5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's break-point resilience and superior game-winning rate on Hard project a second-set edge, though King's 67% first-serve-in rate keeps this at medium confidence.
- Legout last-15 Hard: 62.1% games won (159/256) with 64.5% break points saved
- Legout recent form: straight-sets wins in 4 of his last 5 completed matches at this San Diego event
- King last-15 Hard: 40.5% return points won, limiting his ability to break back in a set
- King's 2026 Hard record is 1-1 with a 0-1 Clay mark, thin recent sample
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's set dominance (79.3% sets won) and King's sub-50% recent win rate point to a straight-sets finish, though King's occasional three-set grinders keep this at medium confidence.
- Legout last-15: 23 sets won vs 6 lost (79.3%), with 12 of 15 matches won
- Legout's four most recent San Diego wins were all straight sets
- King last-15: 18 sets won vs 16 lost (52.9%), but 7-8 record overall
- King's last match was a 0-2 sets loss on 2026-07-20
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's straight-sets pattern in this event and superior set-win rate favor a 2-0 scoreline, with King's weak return game limiting his chances of stealing a set.
- Legout last-15 Hard: 12-3 record with 79.3% sets won
- Legout's last four San Diego matches were all straight-sets wins
- King last-15: 7-8 record, 52.9% sets won, 40.5% return points won on Hard
- King's most recent outing was a 7-5 6-1 straight-sets loss
BetBugs · Set BettingwonTimo Legout 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' tracked ace rates are very low (1.3 and 1.5 per match), making an Under 8.5 ace line strongly supported by the serve-profile data.
- Legout last-15: 1.3 aces per match (19 aces in 15 matches tracked)
- King last-15: 1.5 aces per match (20 aces in 13 matches tracked)
- Combined recent ace rate projects roughly 3 aces per match
- Both players are 178-188cm with two-handed backhands and modest serve profiles
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent windows show very few tiebreaks, and Legout's lopsided game-winning rate reduces the chance of a 6-6 set.
- Legout last-15: only 1 tiebreak in his last 15 matches (7-6(6) loss to Nakashima)
- Legout's other recent San Diego wins were decided without tiebreaks
- King last-15: 2 tiebreaks across 15 matches
- Legout's 62.1% games won rate suggests decisive rather than tight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's 2.7 double faults per match combined with King's 1.6 projects above the 3.5 line, though the low confidence reflects match-length variance.
- Legout last-15: 2.7 double faults per match (40 in 15 matches tracked)
- King last-15: 1.6 double faults per match (21 in 13 matches tracked)
- Combined recent rate projects roughly 4.3 double faults per match
- Legout career double faults 633 in 215 matches, a persistent pattern
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Timo Legout

12W 3L

7-6(6) 6-2#711Bryce Nakashima

6-1 6-4#226Henry Searle

6-3 6-4#554Daniil Ostapenkov

6-1 6-4#743Evan Bynoe

3-6 6-4 6-1#437Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3#362Aidan Mayo

6-2 6-4#522Evan Zhu

3-4 ret.#191Clement Chidekh

6-2 6-2#782Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-4#1243Spencer Papa

7-5 ret.#339Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-1#859Oliver Bonding

6-1 6-3—Donald Nikolas Stoot

Darian King

7W 8L

7-5 6-1#411Masamichi Imamura

6-1 7-5#762Noah Zamora

6-3 4-6 6-1#709Dragos Nicolae Cazacu

6-4 3-6 7-5—Mathis Bondaz

6-3 6-1#314Daniel Milavsky

6-3 6-2—Gus Grumet

6-2 6-3#181Andre Ilagan

6-7(4) 6-4 6-2#600Erik Arutiunian

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#697Tristan Mccormick

7-5 6-3#36Arthur Fery

6-4 6-4#241August Holmgren

4-6 4-5 ret.#888Victor Lilov

6-2 6-1#1818Wulfrano Martinez Mora Esdras

6-1 6-1—Angel Josue Maleno Rosario

6-3 6-4#121Nicolas Mejia

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TLTimo LegoutLegout

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Darian KingKingDK

Timo Legout carries the stronger recent form — Darian King's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1561.3%+6.0pp67.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1571.8%+5.3pp66.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1554.0%+7.2pp46.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/151.3—1.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.71.1 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1545.7%+5.2pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1547.0%+5.1pp52.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1564.5%+9.5pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1554.9%+4.7pp50.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+6.0pp67.3%

71.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+5.3pp66.5%

54.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+7.2pp46.8%

1.3Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15—1.5

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/151.1 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

45.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+5.2pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

47.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+5.1pp52.1%

64.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+9.5pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

54.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+4.7pp50.2%