Plovdiv - BulgariaFinished

Predictions graded

Filip Misolic #530Austria2Imanol Lopez Morillo #590Spain0

Sets 7-5 · 6-1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions1–811%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFilip Misolic · 60 places

Filip Misolic

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 76 in February 2026. A right-foot plantar-fascia rupture interrupted his 2026 season; in mid-June he was still building toward a return.

Current ranking: #530
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Imanol Lopez Morillo

Spain

Reached a singles career-high ranking of No. 470 in February 2024. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #590
Peak ranking: #470 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Lopez Morillo's stronger recent clay form and serve/return numbers make him the model's pick over a slumping Misolic, but the 19.00 price implies hidden fitness or entry concerns, so the edge is theoretical.

Best actionable angles are Over 21.5 games, Over 2.5 sets, and a tiebreak in the match, with Lopez Morillo 2-1 the most likely scoreline.

Context

Lopez Morillo, 665th, is a Spanish clay-court specialist with 237 of his 295 career wins on the surface. Misolic, 474th, is an Austrian whose career wins also lean heavily to clay.
Lopez Morillo's 46.7% win rate over his last 15 matches, all on clay, is modest but clearly better than Misolic's 20% overall record in the same window. Misolic's three clay matches in that sample produced one win, so his recent form offers little evidence he can match Lopez Morillo's level on this surface.
- Lopez Morillo last 15 matches: 7-8 record (46.7%), all on clay, with 51.8% of games won.
- Misolic last 15 matches: 3-12 record (20%), with 43.3% of games won.
- Misolic's last-15 clay sample is only 3 matches (1-2), so his surface-specific form is thin.
Return points won is a stable indicator of how much pressure a player applies on an opponent's serve. Lopez Morillo's 42.7% return-points-won rate over 14 tracked matches reflects a player comfortable extending rallies on clay.
Misolic's 37.2% return-points-won rate over 14 tracked matches is nearly six percentage points lower, and his break-point conversion sits at 33.3% compared to Lopez Morillo's 46.2%. If those patterns hold, Misolic will need to serve efficiently because his return games may not generate enough break chances.
- Lopez Morillo return points won: 42.7% (464/1086) across 14 tracked matches, all on clay.
- Misolic return points won: 37.2% (395/1062) across 14 tracked matches.
- Lopez Morillo break points converted: 46.2% (54/117); Misolic: 33.3% (31/93).
First-serve percentage shapes how often a player can dictate the point from the baseline. Misolic's overall last-15 rate of 59.4% is already modest, and his clay sample shows a further dip.
Misolic's 53.8% first-serve-in rate across three clay matches, combined with a 44% second-serve-points-won rate overall, means he may face pressure on second serves. Lopez Morillo's 63.6% first-serve rate and 55% second-serve-points-won rate on clay suggest he is better equipped to hold serve consistently.
- Misolic clay first-serve-in: 53.8% (135/251) across 3 matches, versus 59.4% overall.
- Lopez Morillo clay first-serve-in: 63.6% (614/965) across 14 tracked matches.
- Misolic second-serve-points-won: 44% overall; Lopez Morillo: 55% on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 19.00
The read
Recent-form and quality-of-opposition trend (Core 5 #3) plus clay surface fit (#1) favor Lopez Morillo, whose last-15 clay numbers are clearly stronger than Misolic's thin 3-match clay sample.
- Last-15 overall: Lopez Morillo 7-8 (46.7% wins, 15 tracked) vs Misolic 3-12 (20%, 15 tracked)
- Last-15 clay: Lopez Morillo 51.8% games won and 42.7% return points won vs Misolic 48.7% games and 40.9% return points (3 clay matches tracked)
- Lopez Morillo 2026 clay record 19-19 with 35-21 in 2025; Misolic 2026 clay 1-2 and only 1-5 on hard
- Misolic's recent clay losses came to lower-ranked opponents (Cerny 737, Brunold 257) while Lopez Morillo pushed Pereira (338) to a 7-6 third
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostImanol Lopez MorilloEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Match-format dynamics (#5) and recent form (#3) point to long clay sets: Lopez Morillo's recent matches are consistently extended and Misolic's clay matches also run long.
- Lopez Morillo last-15 average match duration 132.8 minutes across 14 tracked matches
- Misolic last-15 average duration 110.1 minutes (14 tracked)
- Lopez Morillo's last 5 clay matches: 3 three-setters plus two 7-6 sets
- Both players' recent clay sets frequently reach 7-6 or 7-5 scorelines
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Serve/return structure (#2) and recent form (#3) suggest a tight opening set on clay, with both players holding well enough to push past 9.5 games.
- Lopez Morillo's last 5 clay opening sets: 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-7, 6-4 — several at 10+ games
- Misolic's last 3 clay opening sets: 6-4, 1-6, 6-4
- Lopez Morillo last-15 clay: 63.6% first-serve in and 55% second-serve points won, limiting early breaks
- Misolic clay break-point conversion 64.7% (11/17) supports competitive early games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form (#3) and match-format dynamics (#5) indicate a competitive second set, though the mixed scorelines keep confidence low.
- Lopez Morillo's last 5 clay second sets: 6-3, 6-7, 6-7, 3-6, 6-1 — mixed but often 9+ games
- Misolic's last 3 clay second sets: 7-5, 7-6, 6-0
- Lopez Morillo last-15 clay average duration 132.8 minutes indicates extended sets
- Misolic last-15 clay: 57.1% break points saved (16/28)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Surface fit (#1) and recent form (#3) give Lopez Morillo a slight games edge, but the narrow margin keeps this at a near-even handicap.
- Lopez Morillo last-15 clay games won 51.8% (176/340) vs Misolic 48.7% (37/76)
- Lopez Morillo last-15 clay return points won 42.7% vs Misolic 40.9%
- Misolic's 2026 clay record is 1-2 with a 1-5 hard-court record
- Lopez Morillo's 2026 clay record 19-19 shows volume and consistency
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostImanol Lopez Morillo -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form (#3) shows both players routinely splitting sets on clay, and the near-even set-win rates support a three-set match.
- Lopez Morillo's last 5 clay matches include three 3-set results (W 6-4 3-6 6-1, W 6-2 2-6 7-5, L 4-6 6-3 7-6)
- Misolic's last 3 clay matches: two 3-setters and one straight-set win
- Lopez Morillo last-15 sets won 45.7% (16/35) — near-even set splits
- Misolic last-15 sets won 28.6% (10/35) but clay sets 50% (4/8)
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Serve/return structural edge (#2) and recent form (#3) give Lopez Morillo a modest edge in the opening set, though the small clay sample keeps confidence low.
- Lopez Morillo last-15 clay: 63.6% first-serve in, 55% second-serve points won, 46.2% break points converted
- Misolic last-15 clay: 53.8% first-serve in, 48.3% second-serve points won, 57.1% break points saved
- Misolic has lost the opening set in 4 of his last 5 completed matches
- Lopez Morillo's last three clay matches all went to a deciding or tight opening set (7-6, 4-6, 6-3)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostImanol Lopez MorilloEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Serve-profile evidence (#2) shows both players average well under 4 aces per match, making a combined total under 8.5 the strong clay-typical outcome.
- Lopez Morillo last-15 aces per match: 1.8 (25/14 tracked)
- Misolic last-15 aces per match: 3.8 (53/14 tracked), clay 2.7 (8/3)
- Both players are clay-oriented returners with modest serve profiles
- Career aces: Misolic 937 in 352 matches, Lopez Morillo 1074 in 505 matches — low per-match rates
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form (#3) shows Lopez Morillo's clay matches repeatedly reaching tiebreaks, and both players' hold-friendly serve numbers support at least one tiebreak.
- Lopez Morillo's last 5 clay matches featured 5 tiebreaks (7-6, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6)
- Misolic's last 3 clay matches included one tiebreak (7-6)
- Lopez Morillo last-15 clay: 63.6% first-serve in and 55% second-serve points won — hold-heavy
- Misolic career tiebreak win pct 62%, Lopez Morillo 52%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Serve-profile evidence (#2) shows Misolic's elevated double-fault rate on clay, but Lopez Morillo's low rate keeps this near a coin flip.
- Misolic last-15 double faults per match: 3.4 (47/14 tracked), clay 3.7 (11/3)
- Lopez Morillo last-15 double faults per match: 1.4 (19/14 tracked)
- Misolic career double faults 832 in 352 matches
- Lopez Morillo's low DF rate offsets Misolic's higher rate
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Filip Misolic

3W 12L

4-6 7-5 6-4#737Matyas Cerny

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#257Mika Brunold

6-4 6-0#238Henri Squire

6-4 6-3 7-5#23Francisco Cerundolo

6-1 1-1 ret.#62Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#204Lorenzo Giustino

6-2 6-3 6-3#30Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-5 6-3#93Alexander Shevchenko

7-5 6-4—Daniel Jovanovski

6-3 6-3#85Rinky Hijikata

6-1 6-3#7Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-7(3) 6-1#94Alex Molcan

1-6 7-6(4) 6-4#208Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 6-4#9Alex De Minaur

7-5 7-6(6)#76Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Imanol Lopez Morillo

7W 8L

4-6 6-3 7-6(4)#338Tiago Pereira

6-3 7-5#476Pedro Vives Marcos

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#697Tristan Mccormick

7-6(3) 6-3#336Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-4 3-6 6-1#710Carles Hernandez

6-3 6-3—Nathan Walters

7-5 6-3—Oliver Majdandzic

7-6(5) 3-6 6-2#470Oleg Prihodko

6-2 2-6 7-5#854Pawel Juszczak

6-1 6-1—Jakub Januchowski

6-1 7-6(5)#234Max Houkes

3-6 6-1 6-3#668Tim Handel

6-3 7-6(5)#843Linus Lagerbohm

6-2 6-1—Lorenzo Balducci

7-5 6-2—Marcel Kamrowski

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFilip MisolicMisolic

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Imanol Lopez MorilloMorilloIM

Imanol Lopez Morillo carries the stronger recent form — Filip Misolic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1559.4%+4.2pp63.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1567.2%+3.5pp63.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1544.0%+11.0pp55.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/153.8+2.01.8

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/153.42.0 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1537.2%+5.5pp42.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1533.3%+12.9pp46.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1558.7%+3.1pp55.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1547.8%+3.3pp51.1%

Serve · 2–3

59.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+4.2pp63.6%

67.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+3.5pp63.7%

44.0%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+11.0pp55.0%

3.8Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+2.01.8

3.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.0 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

37.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+5.5pp42.7%

Pressure · 1–1

33.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+12.9pp46.2%

58.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+3.1pp55.6%

Points · 0–1

47.8%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.3pp51.1%