FranceLe NeubourgFinished

Predictions graded

Anna Siskova #196Czechia2Fiona Crawley #258United States1

Sets 4-6 · 6-2 · 7-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 13:55 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnna Siskova · 62 places

Anna Siskova

Czechia

Siskova, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her No. 196 singles ranking is a career high reached in September 2026.

Current ranking: #196
Peak ranking: #196 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Fiona Crawley

United States

Crawley, 24, is the American in this matchup. Her WTA career-high singles ranking is No. 182; no verified preferred surface, height, or playing hand was identified in the reviewed profiles.

Current ranking: #258
Peak ranking: #182
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 12:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Siskova (196) is in better form and has superior serve stats than Crawley (258), though fatigue from a long semifinal is a risk.

Bet Siskova to win at 2.00 (5-point value edge) and consider the +3.5 game handicap; over 5.5 double faults is also a medium-confidence play.

Context

Siskova, the 196th-ranked Czech, is a right-hander whose 298 career wins are mostly on clay (177) but who is 10-1 on hard in 2026. Crawley, 258, is an American whose career wins are overwhelmingly on hard (78 of 109), and all 15 of her tracked recent matches were on that surface.
Both players won four matches here to reach the final, Crawley without dropping a set and Siskova after a 4-6 7-5 7-5 semi-final against 126th-ranked Veronika Podrez. Siskova's last-15 record (12-3) is better than Crawley's 11-4, but her hard-court share of that window is only six matches (5-1), while Crawley's whole sample is hard, so the surface edge is thinner than the raw records suggest.
- Siskova, ranked 196, is 12-3 in the last 15 matches (80%) with a 5-1 hard-court split drawn from a six-match hard sample in that window.
- Crawley, ranked 258, is 11-4 (73.3%) across the last 15 matches, all of them on hard, matching her career hard-court profile of 78 wins from 109.
- Crawley's four wins in Le Neubourg came in straight sets, the last one shortened when Manon Leonard retired at 6-3 2-0.
- Siskova's semi-final was the longer route: 4-6 7-5 7-5 against Veronika Podrez, the highest-ranked opponent either player beat this week.
Crawley's serve has been the more volatile part of her game in this sample: she has averaged 3.6 double faults a match and wins under half the points when her first serve misses. Siskova's serve has been the steadier of the two, and her hard-court first-serve figure (67.9% across six matches) sits close to her overall mark.
The consequence lands on second serves: Crawley's first-serve rate is about ten points below Siskova's, so more of her service points start from a position she has won only 46.7% of. The counterweight is that Crawley has returned and converted break points at slightly higher rates than Siskova, so the serving gap does not automatically translate into a cleaner break-point record.
- Siskova: 69.9% first serves in (700/1001), 50.2% of second-serve points won and 2.7 double faults per match across 15 tracked matches.
- Crawley: 59.8% first serves in (625/1045), 46.7% of second-serve points won and 3.6 double faults per match over the same 15-match window.
- Crawley has the better return numbers of the pair: 49.4% of return points won and 50.6% of break points converted (78/154), against 48.0% and 47.9% (69/144) for Siskova.
- Both samples cover the full 15 matches; Siskova's hard-court first-serve rate is 67.9% over six matches and all of Crawley's matches were on hard.
The final is best-of-three at a W75 ITF event in Le Neubourg, France, and both women have played four matches this week. Crawley, 258, is the one who did it on consecutive days, while 196th-ranked Siskova had a rest day on Sep 16.
Crawley's heavier recent load, four straight match days plus the longest average match time in the last-15 window at 115.1 minutes, is a plausible fatigue factor in a final. Her semi-final ended after only eight games when Manon Leonard retired, which cuts against a strong read, and Siskova's 93.5-minute average with an extra day off gives her the lighter week even though both arrive with four wins.
- Crawley's four Le Neubourg wins came on Sep 16, 17, 18 and 19; Siskova played on Sep 15, 17, 18 and 19, with a rest day on the 16th.
- Crawley averages 115.1 minutes per match across the last 15, against 93.5 for Siskova, including a 6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(0) win over Lexington Reed in late July.
- Her semi-final lasted eight games before Manon Leonard retired at 6-3 2-0, so the most recent data point is light rather than heavy.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Siskova's better first-serve consistency, higher second-serve points won and marginally stronger set/game control across the same 15-match hard window give her the structural edge, with the heavier semi-final workload only a minor counterweight.
- Last 15 overall: 12-3 (80% record), 71.4% sets won (25/35), 57.9% games won (184/318) — matchesTracked 15
- Last-15 hard-court split: 5-1 record with 61.7% total points won on the surface (6 matches, small sample)
- Serve structure edge: 69.9% first serves in and 50.2% second-serve points won vs Crawley 59.8% and 46.7%
- Ranking 196 vs 258; Siskova won her SF in 3 sets (34 games) on 19 Sep while Crawley's SF ended 6-3 2-0 ret. after only 11 games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnna SiskovaEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Siskova's high recent win rate and Crawley's inability to win comfortably (straight-set, small-margin defeats and narrow wins) make a 3.5-game cushion a well-supported structural play.
- Siskova has won 12 of her last 15 matches (80%) and needs only to stay within 3 games
- Her three recent defeats were mostly heavy (6-4 6-2 vs Hibino = -6; 4-6 6-2 5-7 = -4), so handicap protection covers the narrow-loss scenario
- Crawley has lost 4 of 15 recently, all in straight sets (6-4 6-3, 6-4 6-4, 6-3 6-3, 6-4 6-7 6-1), i.e. rarely blowing opponents out
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAnna Siskova +3.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two similarly matched hard-court players averaging over 21 games per match, with a final between near-equal rankings, nudges the total just above the line; LOW confidence because it sits close to their own mean.
- Siskova's last 15 matches total 318 games = 21.2 games/match; hard-only subset 131 games over 6 matches = 21.8/match
- Crawley's last 15 (all hard) total 321 games = 21.4 games/match at an average 115.1 minutes per match
- Combined recent three-set rate 13/30 (43%) plus a close ranking gap (196 vs 258) points to a competitive final
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Averaging the two players' first-set game counts (8.9 + 10.4 = 9.6 mean) puts the line marginally on the Over side, with LOW confidence given the narrow margin.
- Siskova's last 15 opening sets total 133 games = 8.9 games per first set
- Crawley's last 15 opening sets total 156 games = 10.4 games per first set (all hard)
- Combined first-set mean 9.6 games; Crawley's tight openers (7-6, 7-6, 6-7 recent) raise the upper tail
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Siskova's stronger recent opening-set conversion rate (73% vs 60%) plus the same first-serve efficiency band makes her a narrow first-set favourite, kept LOW because one set is high variance.
- Siskova won the opening set in 11 of her last 15 matches (73%), including 4 of 4 in this Le Neubourg hard event (6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 4-6 comeback)
- Crawley won the first set in 9 of her last 15 (60%) but lost it in three of her four recent defeats
- Both players' first-serve points won are near-identical (Siskova 61.7%, Crawley 61.9%), so the edge is modest
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAnna SiskovaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Siskova's broader set-win dominance in the recent window (71.4%) outweighs Crawley's occasional second-set lapses, but format variance keeps this at LOW confidence.
- Siskova's last 15 matches: 25 of 35 sets won (71.4%), with only 10 sets lost across 15 matches
- On hard in the last 15 she has taken 10 of 14 sets (71.4%) — 6 matches tracked
- Crawley has lost the second set in several recent wins (e.g. 6-4 6-7 6-1 vs Yuki Naito, 5-7 6-1 6-1 vs Sakatsume), showing second-set slippage
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAnna SiskovaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A near coin-flip ranking matchup with 43% of the combined last-15 windows reaching a third set pushes this marginally Over 2.5, but the edge is thin and therefore LOW confidence.
- Siskova's last 15: 7 matches went to a deciding set (6 wins 2-1, 1 loss 1-2) = 47%
- Crawley's last 15: 6 matches went the distance (5 wins 2-1, 1 loss 1-2) = 40%
- Both carry strong deciding-set records (Siskova 56% career, Crawley 68% career) and a 196 vs 258 ranking gap
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' well-tracked recent double-fault rates (3.6 and 2.7-3.2 per match) sum comfortably above 5.5, driven by serve/return structure rather than narrative.
- Crawley last 15: 3.6 double faults/match (54 in 15 matches, all hard)
- Siskova last 15: 2.7 DF/match overall and 3.2 DF/match on hard (19 in 6 matches)
- Combined hard-court rate of roughly 6.8 double faults per match across well-covered 15- and 6-match samples
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player serves big, but the combined hard-court ace rate (2.2 + 1.1) sits above the 2.5 line, giving a modest Over lean with LOW confidence.
- Siskova last 15: 1.4 aces/match overall, rising to 2.2 aces/match in her 6-match hard split
- Crawley last 15 (all hard): 1.1 aces/match (16 aces in 15 matches)
- Combined hard-court expectation of roughly 3.3 aces per match, both players low-ace servers
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The very low recent tiebreak frequency across both players' 15-match windows (7/69 sets) makes at least one tiebreak unlikely, though competitive-final conditions keep this at LOW confidence.
- Only 1 tiebreak set in Siskova's last 35 sets (vs Rasheeda Mcadoo, 7-6(6))
- Crawley has 6 tiebreak sets in her last 34 sets but 5 came in a single stretch of lower-ranked opposition
- Combined last-15 window: 7 tiebreak sets across 69 sets (~10% per set), implying roughly a one-in-three chance of a tiebreak in a 2-3 set match
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance58%

Anna Siskova

12W 3L

4-6 7-5 7-5#126Veronika Podrez

6-2 6-4#424Diana Martynov

6-1 6-3#692Demi Tran

6-0 6-4—Seda Baslilar

6-4 6-2#199Nao Hibino

1-6 6-4 7-5#124Noma Akugue Noha

4-6 6-2 7-5#355Yelyzaveta Kotliar

6-3 6-0#829Laetitia Pulchartova

7-6(6) 1-6 6-3#443Rasheeda Mcadoo

6-0 6-3#561Ruth Roura Llaverias

7-5 1-6 6-2#646Merel Hoedt

6-2 6-1#859Sonja Zhenikhova

6-3 6-2#487Maria Martinez Vaquero

6-4 7-5#305Berfu Cengiz

6-2 6-3#111Julia Grabher

Fiona Crawley

11W 4L

6-3 2-0 ret.#346Manon Leonard

6-4 6-1#195Julia Avdeeva

7-6(4) 6-3#384Naiktha Bains

6-2 6-1#349Sahaja Yamalapalli

6-4 6-3#111Julia Grabher

6-4 6-3#552Ekaterina Ovcharenko

7-5 6-3#97Simona Waltert

6-4 6-4#109Anastasia Zakharova

6-1 7-6(2)#295Lizette Cabrera

6-3 6-3#284Ayana Akli

7-6(1) 6-3#371Eunhye Lee

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(0)#855Lexington Reed

4-6 6-3 6-2#898Carolina Gomez

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1#287Yuki Naito

5-7 6-1 6-1#115Himeno Sakatsume

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ASAnna SiskovaSiskova

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Fiona CrawleyCrawleyFC

Anna Siskova carries the stronger recent form — Fiona Crawley's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In69.9%+10.1pp59.8%

1st Serve Won61.7%—61.9%

2nd Serve Won50.2%+3.5pp46.7%

Aces / Match1.4+0.31.1

Double Faults / Match2.70.9 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won48.0%+1.4pp49.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.9%+2.7pp50.6%

Break Pts Saved56.9%+0.8pp56.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won53.1%—52.5%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

69.9%1st Serve In+10.1pp59.8%

61.7%1st Serve Won—61.9%

50.2%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp46.7%

1.4Aces / Match+0.31.1

2.7Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

48.0%Return Pts Won+1.4pp49.4%

Pressure · 1–1

47.9%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp50.6%

56.9%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp56.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.1%Total Pts Won—52.5%