United StatesSan Diego - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Andrew Fenty #394United States2Kaylan Bigun #548United States0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Sun 20 Sept 2026, 18:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrew Fenty · 154 places

Andrew Fenty

United States

Fenty reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 382 on 8 June 2026. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #394
Peak ranking: #382 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Kaylan Bigun

United States

American left-hander born on 23 May 2006. Public player records list a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 507 in June 2026; no reliable source in this search established a stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #548
Peak ranking: #507 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Fenty is the higher-ranked, more accomplished hard-courter and a deserving favorite, but the recent 15-match windows are essentially even (both 8-7, ~52.5% games won), and the 1.60 price offers no value.

The best angles are the totals — Over 21.5 games and Over 2.5 sets — while backing Bigun at 2.20 is a clear avoid given his 5-7 0-6 loss to world No. 711 and inferior serve/return metrics.

Context

Fenty, 424 in the world, is a 193cm right-hander whose 2026 hard-court record is 23-15. Bigun, ranked 582, is a 183cm left-hander with a 16-11 hard-court record this year.
Their last-15 hard-court records are level at 8-7, and their games-won rates are nearly identical at 52.8% and 52.4%. The main separation comes on serve: Bigun has won 74.4% of first-serve points in that window against Fenty's 67.8%, while Fenty has saved break points slightly better at 63.7% versus 59.3%. Those serve numbers point in different directions, so the match looks close rather than clearly tilted.
- Fenty last 15 hard-court matches: 8-7, 52.8% games won, 67.8% first-serve points won, 63.7% break points saved.
- Bigun last 15 hard-court matches: 8-7, 52.4% games won, 74.4% first-serve points won, 59.3% break points saved.
- Both samples cover all 15 matches, so the comparison is not limited by thin coverage.
Fenty, 424 in the world, has played 15 matches in the recent window with an average duration of 106 minutes, and his two retirements came within roughly three months of this event.
The retirements are the only concrete fitness flags in the supplied data, and they sit inside the recent window rather than in older history. They do not prove a current problem, but they are the clearest physical caveat on either side and could matter if this qualifying match extends.
- Fenty retired at 6-7(11) 4-1 against Jeff Wolf on 2026-07-13.
- Fenty retired at 3-0 against Edward Winter on 2026-06-30.
- Both retirements occurred on hard courts within the last 15-match window.
Bigun, 582 in the world, is a left-handed two-hander whose career first-serve percentage is 57%. His recent window covers 14 matches for serve metrics.
The 74.4% first-serve points won is the strongest single serve number in this matchup, but it comes with a lower first-serve-in rate of 61% and a second-serve points won mark of just 48.5%. If Bigun's first serve lands, he has a clear point-winning edge; if it does not, his second serve is the more vulnerable side of the comparison.
- Bigun has won 74.4% of first-serve points across 14 tracked matches in the last-15 window.
- Bigun's first-serve-in rate in that window is 61%, and his second-serve points won is 48.5%.
- Fenty's corresponding first-serve points won figure is 67.8% across 15 tracked matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Andrew Fenty

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Fenty's ranking, career hard-court record and return profile give him a modest but real edge, yet the price already fully reflects it, leaving no positive value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Fenty holds the ranking, career hard-court, and serve-structure edge (67.8% first-serve points won vs Bigun's 74.4% but on far lower first-serve volume), while Bigun's recent form includes a heavy loss to a much lower-ranked opponent; the recency window is essentially even, so the edge is modest rather than decisive.
- Fenty ranked 424 vs Bigun 582; career winPct 56% (140/250) vs Bigun 42.7% (53/124).
- Last-15 hard-court window (15 matches each): Fenty 8-7 with 52.8% games won; Bigun 8-7 with 52.4% games won — near-identical recent records.
- Fenty career hard record 102-70 across 2023-2026; Bigun 32-39 on hard career.
- Bigun's last match: 5-7 0-6 loss to world No. 711 Bryce Nakashima (Sep 13, 2026), a weak-form flag.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Two closely matched hard-court players with near-identical recent game-win rates and long average match durations point to a drawn-out, competitive scoreline rather than a quick straight-sets blowout.
- Fenty last-15 average match duration 106.4 minutes; Bigun 116.3 minutes (14 tracked).
- Fenty last-15 games won 160/303 (52.8%); Bigun 177/338 (52.4%) — both near-even game splits.
- Fenty's last match went 6-7(6) 7-5 6-2 (33 games); Bigun's Aug 25 match went three sets (26 games).
- Both players' recent hard-court sets frequently reach 7-5/7-6 scorelines.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two evenly matched hard-court players with a history of tight opening sets make an over-9.5 first set a reasonable lean, supported by recent tiebreak-heavy scorelines.
- Fenty's last match first set went to a 7-6(6) tiebreak (13 games).
- Bigun's Aug 24, 2026 first set was 6-1, but his Aug 7 first set was 7-6(5).
- Both players' recent hard-court sets frequently reach 7-5 or 7-6.
- Fenty last-15 games won 52.8%; Bigun 52.4% — near-even game splits suggest tight sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's stronger first-set conversion baseline and slightly better recent set-win rate give him a narrow edge to take the opener, though the near-even recent windows keep confidence low.
- Fenty career firstSetWinConversion 88% vs Bigun 73%.
- Fenty last-15 hard sets won 59.4% (19/32); Bigun 57.1% (20/35).
- Bigun opened his most recent match (Sep 13, 2026) by losing the first set 5-7 before a 0-6 second set.
- Fenty's last match (Sep 13, 2026) saw him take a first-set tiebreak 7-6(6) before fading.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's marginally stronger set-win rate and Bigun's recent second-set collapses give Fenty a slight edge in set two, though the thin margin warrants low confidence.
- Fenty last-15 second-set performance reflected in 59.4% overall sets won (19/32).
- Bigun lost his most recent match's second set 0-6 (Sep 13, 2026).
- Fenty career winPct 56% vs Bigun 42.7%.
- Bigun's recent three-set losses show second-set vulnerability (e.g., 3-6 vs Chopra, Aug 25, 2026).
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With near-identical recent set-win rates and both players recently going the distance, a three-set match is a reasonable lean, though the even matchup could also resolve in two tight sets.
- Fenty last-15: 19 sets won of 32 played (59.4%); Bigun 20 of 35 (57.1%) — both regularly extend matches.
- Fenty's last match (Sep 13, 2026) went the full three sets.
- Bigun's Aug 25, 2026 match went three sets (2-6 6-3 6-3 loss).
- Both players' recent records show frequent deciding-set involvement.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and their near-identical game-win rates point to tight sets, making at least one tiebreak a reasonable lean.
- Fenty's last match (Sep 13, 2026) featured a first-set tiebreak (7-6(6)).
- Bigun's Aug 24, 2026 match included a 7-6(4) set; his Aug 7 match had a 7-6(5) set.
- Fenty career tiebreakWinPct 51%; Bigun 47% — both competitive in breakers.
- Near-even recent game-win rates (52.8% vs 52.4%) suggest tight sets likely to reach tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined recent ace production sits just above the 7.5 line, and the hard-court setting supports serve, though the modest per-match rates keep confidence low.
- Fenty last-15 aces per match 5.3 (80/15); Bigun 4.5 (63/14).
- Combined recent ace rate of roughly 9.8 per match across both players.
- Fenty career 667 aces in 250 matches (2.7/match); Bigun 418 in 124 (3.4/match).
- Hard-court surface at San Diego Challenger typically aids serve.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined recent double-fault rates sit marginally above the 7.5 line, with both players showing moderate first-serve consistency, though the margin is thin.
- Fenty last-15 double faults per match 4.2 (63/15); Bigun 3.9 (55/14).
- Combined recent double-fault rate of roughly 8.1 per match.
- Fenty career 581 double faults in 250 matches; Bigun 500 in 124.
- Both players' first-serve percentages are moderate (62.5% and 61.0%).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance51%

Andrew Fenty

8W 7L

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#672Ryan Seggerman

7-5 7-5#658Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-2 6-3#690Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-4#293Alvaro Guillen Meza

7-5 6-2#522Evan Zhu

2-6 6-3 6-4#700Hunter Heck

7-6(2) 6-1#138Lloyd Harris

6-1 6-4#840Evan King

6-4 6-1—Eli Dieveney

6-7(11) 4-1 ret.#246Jeff Wolf

3-0 ret.#341Edward Winter

6-4 6-1#411Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-3#457Karl Poling

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#541Gavin Young

6-3 6-4#206Braden Shick

Kaylan Bigun

8W 7L

7-5 6-0#711Bryce Nakashima

2-6 6-3 6-3#690Keshav Chopra

6-1 7-6(4)#674Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-1 6-4#764Lucas Andrade Da Silva

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3—Maximus Dussault

6-3 6-2#656Naoya Honda

4-6 6-3 6-2—Sam Landau

6-4 7-5#314Daniel Milavsky

6-4 7-5#599Millen Hurrion

6-4 6-7(5) 6-2#699Thomas Fancutt

3-6 6-4 6-1#746Vignesh Gogineni

6-1 7-5#718Andrew Johnson

6-4 6-4—Alexander Rozin

6-3 6-4—Gus Grumet

7-6(2) 6-3—Jerry Roddick

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFAndrew FentyFenty

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Kaylan BigunBigunKB

Andrew Fenty carries the stronger recent form — Kaylan Bigun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.5%+1.5pp61.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1567.8%+6.6pp74.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.8%+5.3pp48.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.3+0.84.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.20.3 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.2%+0.8pp37.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.9%+4.1pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1563.7%+4.4pp59.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.7%—50.8%

Serve · 3–2

62.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.5pp61.0%

67.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.6pp74.4%

53.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp48.5%

5.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.84.5

4.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.3 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

38.2%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp37.4%

Pressure · 2–0

42.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.1pp38.8%

63.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp59.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—50.8%