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Predictions graded

Eva Marie Desvignes #872France0Kyoka Okamura #307Japan2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Sat 19 Sept 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions2–820%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKyoka Okamura · 565 places

Eva Marie Desvignes

France

Desvignes, 18, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her No. 872 ranking is also her career best, and her recorded match volume is concentrated on hard courts.

Current ranking: #872
Peak ranking: #872 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Kyoka Okamura

Japan

Okamura, 30, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her career-best singles ranking is No. 178, reached in 2025; her recorded match volume is primarily on hard courts.

Current ranking: #307
Peak ranking: #178 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 15:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Desvignes' recent Hard-court form (11-4, 59.4% games won) dwarfs Okamura's (1-10, 38.2%), and the model favors Desvignes 2-0 with unders on games and sets.

But the market prices Desvignes at 19.00 and Okamura 2-0 at 1.01, a massive divergence that signals hidden news, so avoid matchWinner and Desvignes +4.5 despite the form edge.

Context

Desvignes, ranked No. 872, is a French player whose 2026 hard-court record is 25-19. Okamura, ranked No. 307, is a 30-year-old Japanese right-hander with 391 career match wins and a long hard-court history.
Desvignes has won 11 of 15 recent matches, including five straight in August, and her hard-court record in that window is 11-4. Okamura has lost 11 of 15, with her only hard-court win in that span coming in June. The ranking gap favors Okamura, but recent results point the other way, making this a matchup where current form and long-term level disagree.
- Desvignes last 15 matches: 11-4 overall, all on hard courts, with 24 of 34 sets won.
- Okamura last 15 matches: 4-11 overall, 1-10 on hard courts, with only 5 of 26 hard-court sets won.
- Desvignes won five consecutive matches in August 2026 before a three-set loss to Hiromi Abe on September 8.
- Okamura has lost her last five matches, all on hard courts, dating back to July 13.
Okamura has a career first-serve percentage of 63% and wins 61% of first-serve points across her career. Desvignes has a career first-serve percentage of 60% and wins 58% of first-serve points.
In the last 15 matches, Okamura has won 55.4% of first-serve points and 43% of second-serve points, while Desvignes has won 61.6% and 55.5% respectively. Okamura's 2.9 double faults per match, compared to 1.7 for Desvignes, give opponents more free points. If Okamura cannot improve her serve efficiency, Desvignes will have more chances to apply pressure on return.
- Okamura last 15 matches: 55.4% first-serve points won, 43% second-serve points won, 2.9 double faults per match.
- Desvignes last 15 matches: 61.6% first-serve points won, 55.5% second-serve points won, 1.7 double faults per match.
- Okamura's hard-court serve numbers in that window are lower: 54.4% first-serve points won and 41.6% second-serve points won.
- Desvignes has saved 55.7% of break points in her last 15 matches, while Okamura has saved 45.9%.
Desvignes has played 15 matches since August 4, with an average duration of 105.5 minutes. Okamura has played four matches since July 28, with her last match on September 9 lasting 1 hour 47 minutes.
Desvignes has been on court regularly, including a 6-7(2) 6-1 6-0 loss on September 8 and a retirement win on August 20. Okamura has had a lighter schedule, which may mean fresher legs but also less recent match rhythm. The workload gap is a factor, though it is unclear whether it helps or hurts either player in a first-round qualifying match.
- Desvignes has played 15 matches since August 4, including two three-set matches and one retirement win.
- Okamura has played four matches since July 28, with her most recent on September 9.
- Desvignes average match duration in her last 15 matches is 105.5 minutes; Okamura's is 107.4 minutes.
- Okamura's last match was a 6-2 7-5 loss to Daria Khomutsianskaya on September 9.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form and quality-of-opposition trend strongly favor Desvignes: she is 11-4 over her last 15 Hard matches while Okamura is 1-10 on Hard in the same window, and Okamura's serve/return structure (43% second-serve points won, 44.3% return points) is well below Desvignes' level.
- Desvignes last-15 record 11-4 (73.3%) with 70.6% sets won and 59.4% games won, all on Hard (matchesTracked 15)
- Okamura last-15 record 4-11 (26.7%); on Hard specifically 1-10 (9.1%) with only 38.2% games won (matchesTracked 11)
- Okamura has lost 8 of her last 9 matches (Jul-Sep 2026), including straight-set defeats to opponents ranked 61-409
- Desvignes won 8 of her last 10 Hard matches in Aug-Sep 2026, though her most recent outing was a 3-set loss to Hiromi Abe
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEva Marie DesvignesEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
The large gap in games-won percentage (59.4% vs 38.2% on Hard) points to a one-sided match that should finish under the 21.5-game line.
- Okamura's last 8 Hard losses were all straight sets, averaging roughly 12-13 games lost per match
- Desvignes' last-15 average match duration 105.5 minutes with 59.4% games won, suggesting short matches when she controls
- Okamura Hard-window games won only 38.2% (91/238), indicating lopsided scorelines
- Desvignes won 8 of her last 10 Hard matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The games-won gap and Okamura's serve issues make a 4+ game Desvignes margin a reasonable expectation.
- Desvignes Hard-window games won 59.4% vs Okamura 38.2%
- Okamura's recent Hard losses averaged roughly a 6-game margin
- Desvignes return points won 49.8% on Hard vs Okamura 41.1%
- Okamura double faults 3.8 per match on Hard, inflating opponent margins
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostEva Marie Desvignes -3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Okamura's weak opening-set record and low break-point save rate on Hard suggest Desvignes can break early and close the first set quickly.
- Okamura has lost the opening set by a 6-2 or wider margin in 5 of her last 8 matches
- Desvignes Hard-window break points converted 49.5% (47/95), supporting early breaks
- Okamura Hard-window break points saved only 47.3% (53/112)
- Desvignes' recent straight-set wins frequently ended 6-2, 6-1, 6-0
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Desvignes takes control, Okamura's serve fragility (41.6% second-serve points won, 3.8 DF/match) should keep the second set short.
- Okamura's second-set games won in recent Hard losses averaged under 3 per set
- Desvignes Hard-window second-serve points won 55.5% vs Okamura 41.6%
- Okamura double faults 3.8 per match on Hard, extending return-game pressure
- Desvignes last-15 games won 59.4% overall
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Desvignes' superior early-set serve/return numbers and Okamura's pattern of slow starts (opening-set losses in 7 of last 8) make the French player the stronger set-1 side.
- Desvignes career firstSetWinConversion 89% (127 matches), indicating she converts strong opening sets
- Okamura has lost the opening set in 7 of her last 8 matches (Jul-Sep 2026)
- Okamura Hard-window first-serve points won only 54.4% and second-serve points won 41.6% (11 matches tracked)
- Desvignes Hard-window first-serve points won 61.6% and break points converted 49.5% (11 matches tracked)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEva Marie DesvignesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Even accounting for possible set-1 variance, Desvignes' set-level dominance and Okamura's high double-fault rate on Hard support the French player in set 2.
- Desvignes last-15 sets won 70.6% (24/34) vs Okamura 32.4% (11/34)
- Okamura has dropped the second set in 6 of her last 8 completed matches
- Desvignes Hard-window return points won 49.8% vs Okamura 41.1% (11 matches tracked each)
- Okamura double faults 3.8 per match on Hard, giving free points in return games
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostEva Marie DesvignesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Okamura's inability to win sets on Hard (19.2% set win rate) makes a straight-set Desvignes win the most likely match shape.
- Okamura has lost 8 of her last 9 matches, 7 of them in straight sets
- Okamura Hard-window sets won only 19.2% (5/26) over 11 matches
- Desvignes last-15 sets won 70.6% (24/34)
- Desvignes won 8 of her last 10 Hard matches without dropping a set
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Okamura's straight-set loss pattern and Desvignes' set-level dominance supports a 2-0 scoreline, though Desvignes' own recent 3-set loss adds some risk.
- Okamura straight-set losses in 7 of her last 9 matches (Jul-Sep 2026)
- Desvignes last-15 sets won 70.6% with 8 of last 10 Hard wins in straight sets
- Okamura Hard-window record 1-10 with 38.2% games won
- Desvignes Hard-window break points converted 49.5%
BetBugs · Set BettinglostEva Marie Desvignes 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' low ace rates in the last-15 window make the under on 6.5 total aces the safer serve-profile angle.
- Desvignes last-15 aces per match 1.1 (12 aces in 11 tracked matches)
- Okamura last-15 aces per match 1.7 (25 in 15 matches), 1.5 on Hard
- Combined ace rate projects roughly 3 aces per match
- Neither player has a high first-serve ace profile in the tracked window
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Okamura's elevated double-fault rate on Hard plus Desvignes' modest 1.7 per match pushes the combined total above 3.5.
- Okamura last-15 double faults per match 2.9 overall, 3.8 on Hard (11 matches tracked)
- Desvignes last-15 double faults per match 1.7 (19 in 11 matches)
- Combined recent DF rate projects roughly 4.6 per match
- Okamura's career double faults 1781 across 737 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The expected lopsided nature of the match reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak, though Desvignes' recent 7-6 opening set shows some risk.
- Okamura's recent Hard losses were mostly decided by 2-3 game margins per set, not tiebreaks
- Desvignes won 8 of last 10 Hard matches in straight sets without tiebreaks
- Okamura Hard-window games won 38.2%, indicating lopsided sets
- Desvignes last-15 average match duration 105.5 minutes
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The model favors Desvignes at 68%, but the quoted 19.00 price implies only ~5%, a massive disagreement that signals the market has information (likely fitness/withdrawal or a mispriced line) the recent-form window does not capture.

Eva Marie Desvignes

11W 4L

6-7(2) 6-1 6-0#358Hiromi Abe

6-2 4-6 6-3#808Sunam Jeong

7-6(4) 3-0 ret.#597Natsuki Yoshimoto

6-2 6-1#867Yanan Hou

6-0 6-1#855Yui Chikaraishi

6-2 6-1—Wanbing Wang

7-6(3) 6-2—Jiyun Oh

6-2 6-3#895Shihomi Li Xuan Leong

6-3 4-6 6-2#636Cheuk Ying Shek

2-6 6-2 6-4#596Maria Kalyakina

6-0 6-2—Marianna Shikhanova

6-3 6-2—Soo Young Choi

6-1 6-2—Yuhan Chen

6-3 6-4—Yu Jun Lin

6-2 6-1—Anastasia Efremova

Kyoka Okamura

4W 11L

6-2 7-5#276Daria Khomutsianskaya

6-3 6-2#409Kristiana Sidorova

6-1 6-4#210Hayu Kinoshita

7-5 6-1#136Carol Young Suh Lee

6-2 6-1#61Lanlana Tararudee

6-3 6-1#143Susan Bandecchi

7-5 6-1#358Hiromi Abe

4-6 6-3 6-2#347Varvara Panshina

6-1 3-6 6-4#358Hiromi Abe

4-6 6-4 7-6(3)#867Yanan Hou

4-6 6-4 6-3#248Valentina Ryser

7-5 6-1#187Katie Swan

6-3 6-2#368Momoko Kobori

6-3 6-3#475Mio Mushika

6-0 6-2—Mina Miyahara

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EDEva Marie DesvignesDesvignes

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Kyoka OkamuraOkamuraKO

Eva Marie Desvignes carries the stronger recent form — Kyoka Okamura's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In11/15 · 15/1559.5%+3.8pp63.3%

1st Serve Won11/15 · 15/1561.6%+6.2pp55.4%

2nd Serve Won11/15 · 15/1555.5%+12.5pp43.0%

Aces / Match11/15 · 15/151.1+0.61.7

Double Faults / Match11/15 · 15/151.71.2 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won11/15 · 15/1549.8%+5.5pp44.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted11/15 · 15/1549.5%+3.2pp46.3%

Break Pts Saved11/15 · 15/1555.7%+9.8pp45.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won11/15 · 15/1554.2%+6.7pp47.5%

Serve · 3–2

59.5%1st Serve In11/15 · 15/15+3.8pp63.3%

61.6%1st Serve Won11/15 · 15/15+6.2pp55.4%

55.5%2nd Serve Won11/15 · 15/15+12.5pp43.0%

1.1Aces / Match11/15 · 15/15+0.61.7

1.7Double Faults / Match11/15 · 15/151.2 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

49.8%Return Pts Won11/15 · 15/15+5.5pp44.3%

Pressure · 2–0

49.5%Break Pts Converted11/15 · 15/15+3.2pp46.3%

55.7%Break Pts Saved11/15 · 15/15+9.8pp45.9%

Points · 1–0

54.2%Total Pts Won11/15 · 15/15+6.7pp47.5%

Eva Marie Desvignes

Kyoka Okamura

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 21.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Eva Marie Desvignes @ 19.00

Eva Marie Desvignes

Kyoka Okamura

Stat Battle