Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Moise Kouame #213France2Florent Bax #247France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Fri 18 Sept 2026, 05:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMoise Kouame · 34 places

Moise Kouame

France

French right-hander born in March 2009. The ITF lists a 25-13 professional record in 2026, with his stronger recorded win rate on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #213
Peak ranking: #211 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Florent Bax

France

Bax, 27, is a right-handed French player listed at 185 cm. Ranking sources list No. 247 as both his current and career-high singles ranking in late July 2026; no reliable source in the requested search set states a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #247
Peak ranking: #247 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Florent Bax is the value side at 4.25 despite Kouame's higher ranking, backed by a 9-6 recent record, superior hard-court serve numbers (75.5% first-serve points won, 64.9% break points saved) and far fewer double faults (2.4 vs 5.7 per match).

Bax's short recent match profile also supports Under 22.5 games and Under 2.5 sets, with a 2-0 Bax scoreline the most likely result.

Context

Bax, 30, is a French right-hander ranked No. 308 with a career built mostly on clay and hard courts. Kouame, 19, is a French right-hander ranked No. 199 and is earlier in his professional development.
Bax's 60% hard-court win rate over the last 15 matches is supported by a 75.5% first-serve points won mark and only 2.4 double faults per match. Kouame's 50% hard-court record in the same window comes with a lower 71.3% first-serve points won and 5.7 double faults per match. The gap in serve reliability gives Bax a clearer path to holding, though Kouame's overall ranking is higher.
- Bax last-15 hard-court record: 9-6 (60%), first-serve points won 75.5%, double faults 2.4 per match.
- Kouame last-15 hard-court record: 4-4 (50%), first-serve points won 71.3%, double faults 5.7 per match.
- Both samples cover 14-15 matches, so the serve splits are reasonably reliable.
Kouame is 19 and ranked No. 199, but his recent match log shows a clear split between results against top-200 players and results against lower-ranked opposition.
Kouame beat Filip Peliwo (No. 648) and Ryuki Matsuda (No. 701) in straight sets this week, but lost his previous three completed matches to Nishesh Basavareddy (No. 151), Moez Echargui (No. 215) and Kenta Miyoshi (No. 452). Bax at No. 308 sits between those levels, so Kouame's ability to handle a mid-ranked opponent is the open question.
- Kouame's last two wins: vs Peliwo (No. 648) and Matsuda (No. 701), both straight sets.
- Kouame's last three completed losses: vs Basavareddy (No. 151), Echargui (No. 215), Miyoshi (No. 452).
- Bax is ranked No. 308, between Kouame's recent winning and losing opponent levels.
Bax, 30, has a long career with 467 matches played and a 62.3% win rate. Kouame, 19, has played 85 career matches.
Bax's recent log includes a retirement loss to Moerani Bouzige on September 5 and a three-set loss to Maximus Jones on September 8, both on hard courts. Kouame's most recent match ended with Filip Peliwo retiring after Kouame led 6-1 4-2. Bax's heavier recent workload and the mid-match retirement are worth monitoring, though he has won both matches in Phan Thiet this week in straight sets.
- Bax retired in his September 5 match against Bouzige after losing the first set and trailing 3-4 in the second.
- Bax has played 15 hard-court matches in the last-15 window, with an average duration of 113.9 minutes.
- Kouame's September 17 match ended with opponent Peliwo retiring, so Kouame has less recent court time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 4.25
The read
Bax holds the serve-structure and error-discipline edge (first-serve points won, break points saved, double faults) plus a better recent win rate on the same hard courts, outweighing Kouame's higher ranking (199 vs 308).
- Bax last-15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Kouame 6-9 (40%), both windows fully tracked (15 matches).
- Bax last-15 hard-court serve: 75.5% first-serve points won and 64.9% break points saved vs Kouame 71.3% and 52.8% on hard.
- Bax double faults 2.4/match vs Kouame 5.7/match over the last 14 tracked matches — a large free-point gap.
- Kouame's two Phan Thiet wins came vs ranked 648 and 701; his last-15 losses include Miyoshi (452) and Echargui (215), while Bax beat Borisiouk and leads the same event 2-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFlorent BaxEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bax's short recent match profile and efficient serving on hard courts point to a compact Bo3, supporting an under on total games.
- Bax last-15 average match duration 113.9 minutes across 14 tracked matches, notably short.
- Bax's last 5 matches produced game totals of 22, 19, 28, 20, 18 — four of five at or under 22.
- Kouame's Phan Thiet wins were 6-1 6-3 and 6-1 4-2 ret. (short), and his hard-court last-15 games won is 55.7%.
- Bax's 2.4 double faults/match and 64.9% break-point save rate limit long, dragged-out sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bax's better break-point defense and lower double-fault rate give him a narrow game-margin edge, but the near-identical hard-court games-won rates keep confidence low.
- Bax last-15 games won 53.4% vs Kouame 50.9% overall.
- On hard courts Bax is 55.7% games won vs Kouame 55.7% — essentially level, so the edge is thin.
- Bax's 64.9% break-point save rate vs Kouame's 52.8% on hard favors Bax in tight games.
- Bax's 44.2% break-point conversion vs Kouame's 46.3% on hard is a small counterweight.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFlorent Bax -2.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bax's superior first-serve efficiency and career first-set conversion give him a modest edge in the opening set, though the small sample keeps confidence low.
- Bax career first-set win conversion 88% vs Kouame 83%.
- Bax last-15 hard: 75.5% first-serve points won, giving him a strong early-hold platform.
- Kouame has dropped the opening set in 3 of his last 5 matches (Miyoshi, Basavareddy, Echargui).
- Both players won their Phan Thiet openers in straight sets, so both arrive with early-round rhythm.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFlorent BaxEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bax's higher sets-won rate and serve efficiency carry into the second set, though the modest sample keeps this a low-confidence lean.
- Bax last-15 sets won 62.9% (22/35) vs Kouame 47.5% (19/40).
- Bax's 75.5% first-serve points won on hard sustains pressure across both sets.
- Kouame has lost the second set in several recent matches (Miyoshi, Basavareddy, Echargui).
- Bax's 2.4 double faults/match reduces gift games in the middle of the match.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFlorent BaxEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bax's straight-set win rate and Kouame's sub-50% sets-won profile favor a two-set finish, though Kouame's three-set history keeps this only medium confidence.
- Bax last-15 sets won 62.9% (22/35) with 9 straight-set wins in 15 matches.
- Kouame last-15 sets won only 47.5% (19/40), and he has lost in straight sets in 4 of his last 15.
- Bax's last 5 matches: three straight-set wins, one straight-set loss, one retirement.
- Both players' Phan Thiet run to the quarter-final has been largely two-set tennis.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame's high double-fault rate alone nearly covers the line, and Bax's modest contribution pushes the combined expectation over 6.5.
- Kouame last-15 double faults 5.7/match across 14 tracked matches.
- Bax last-15 double faults 2.4/match across 14 tracked matches.
- Combined recent rate is roughly 8.1 per match, above the 6.5 line.
- Kouame's career double faults (323 in 85 matches) confirm a persistent serving leak.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent ace rate of both players sits well above the line, making an over the value side on serve profile.
- Bax last-15 aces 6.7/match across 14 tracked matches.
- Kouame last-15 aces 5.6/match across 14 tracked matches.
- Combined recent ace rate is roughly 12.3 per match, comfortably above the 8.5 line.
- Both are right-handed two-handed backhands with similar 59-60% first-serve-in rates, so ace counts are serve-driven and stable.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two solid hard-court servers with recent tiebreak exposure make at least one tiebreak in the match a slight-majority outcome.
- Bax's last 5 matches include two tiebreaks (7-6 vs Borisiouk, 7-6 vs Jones).
- Kouame's last 5 include tiebreaks vs Basavareddy and Echargui.
- Both players hold serve well enough (Bax 75.5%, Kouame 71.3% first-serve points won on hard) to force close sets.
- Bax career tiebreak win rate 56% and Kouame 52% indicate frequent tiebreak exposure.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Kouame is priced as a near-certain winner despite a losing recent window and a clear serve/error deficit against Bax.

Previous match context available

Moise Kouame

6W 9L

6-1 4-2 ret.#648Filip Peliwo

6-1 6-3#701Ryuki Matsuda

4-6 6-4 7-5#452Kenta Miyoshi

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#151Nishesh Basavareddy

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#215Moez Echargui

6-2 6-2#56Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-1 6-4#460Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-1 6-4#341Edward Winter

6-4 6-2#48Nuno Borges

6-4 6-4#312Max Hans Rehberg

4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(9)#28Alejandro Tabilo

6-3 7-5 3-6 2-6 7-6(8)#58Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(4) 6-2 6-1#80Marin Cilic

6-3 7-6(3)#390Jacopo Vasami

2-6 6-4 6-0#92Benjamin Bonzi

Florent Bax

9W 6L

6-3 7-6(3)#744Martin Borisiouk

6-4 6-3—Thanh Minh Truong

6-0 3-6 7-6(4)#463Maximus Jones

7-6(7) 4-3 ret.#438Moerani Bouzige

6-2 6-4#694Manish Sureshkumar

6-1 6-4—Maan Kesarwani

7-5 7-5#971Ko Suzuki

2-6 6-3 6-0#170Daniil Glinka

6-0 6-7(7) 6-4#177Ilia Simakin

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-1#554Daniil Ostapenkov

6-3 6-4#384Arthur Weber

6-4 3-6 6-2#666Gabriel Debru

7-6(3) 6-3#573Takuya Kumasaka

7-5 6-3#585Paul Inchauspe

6-2 6-1#276Dan Added

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMoise KouameKouame

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Florent BaxBaxFB

Florent Bax carries the stronger recent form — Moise Kouame's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1558.6%+1.3pp59.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1570.0%+5.5pp75.5%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1549.0%+2.1pp46.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/155.6+1.16.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/155.73.3 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1538.2%+1.5pp39.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1538.5%+5.7pp44.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1561.9%+3.0pp64.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1549.9%+1.8pp51.7%

Serve · 1–4

58.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+1.3pp59.9%

70.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+5.5pp75.5%

49.0%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+2.1pp46.9%

5.6Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+1.16.7

5.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/153.3 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

38.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.5pp39.7%

Pressure · 0–2

38.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+5.7pp44.2%

61.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+3.0pp64.9%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.8pp51.7%

Moise Kouame

Florent Bax

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Florent Bax

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Moise Kouame @ 1.18

Moise Kouame

Florent Bax

Stat Battle