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Predictions graded

Holger Rune #1442Iliyan Radulov #6220

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Fri 18 Sept 2026, 16:55 Predictions graded

Predictions9–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHolger Rune · 478 places

Holger Rune

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 4 in August 2023. Achilles rehabilitation delayed his planned 2026 return.

Current ranking: #144
Peak ranking: #4 · 2023
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Iliyan Radulov

ATP lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 432, reached in June 2025. Reliable public sources from the targeted search did not establish a preferred surface or an active injury context.

Current ranking: #622
Peak ranking: #432 · 2025
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 187 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 09:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Rune is a clear class and serve/return favourite over Radulov, with the strongest angles being Rune match winner, Rune -3.5, Rune 2-0 and under 2.5 sets.

Radulov at 3.50 is poor value, but Rune’s reported Achilles issue and long layoff keep confidence at medium rather than high.

Context

Rune is the 144th-ranked right-hander in this tie, coached by Lars Christensen and Kenneth Carlsen, with a 65.2% career win rate from 440 matches. His supplied 15-match log covers only hard and indoor hard courts between late August and 18 October 2025.
If he is healthy and match-tight, the gap to a No. 596 opponent is wide. If he is still working back from whatever ended his October match, this rubber becomes far less predictable, because the feed offers no update on his condition or on his current serving numbers.
- 18 October 2025: 4-6 2-2 ret. against world No. 33 Ugo Humbert indoors, the last entry in Rune's supplied 15-match log.
- That log runs from 25 August to 18 October 2025 only; no Rune match is recorded between then and the 18 September 2026 kickoff.
- The retirement is the only physical interruption inside the window, so there is no recent match data on how he is serving or moving now.
Rune, the No. 144, is the home player in this Davis Cup tie and the stronger-ranked side of the two. He withdrew from the 2026 US Open on 22 August, less than four weeks before this match, because he was not sufficiently recovered from the Achilles injury he first picked up in Stockholm in October 2025.
That withdrawal so close to the tie leaves his current serving and movement load unverified, so the ranking and quality gap that favours him cannot simply be taken as settled. The open question is how he copes across a best-of-three match, especially in longer rallies and on second serve, and whether his level holds through the later stages.
- Rune’s August 2026 withdrawal followed a prolonged rehabilitation period after the Achilles injury sustained in Stockholm in October 2025.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2025-10-18T00:00:00.000Z against Ugo Humbert ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ReportedSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 09:14 · Europe/BucharestHolger Rune withdraws from the US Openwww.lequipe.fr · 22 Aug 2026Rune withdraws from Hamburg and Roland Garroswww.atptour.com · 11 May 2026
Rune's window is a hard-court block, 6-3 on outdoor hard and 2-2 indoors. Radulov's same 15-match window splits into 10 hard matches (4-6) and five on clay (1-4).
The record and ranking gap point one way, but Rune's numbers describe a roughly year-old season, so they say more about his level when he last played than about now. Radulov's sample is current and thin: five wins in 15, none against a top-250 opponent.
- Rune's last-15 record is 9-6 (60%) with 24 of 37 sets won; his wins include Humbert (No. 33), Etcheverry (No. 31), Van de Zandschulp (No. 40), Baez (No. 51) and Quinn (No. 57).
- Radulov's last-15 record is 5-10 (33.3%) with 12 of 35 sets won; his wins came against Monday (298), Stewart (371), Callejon Hernando (486), Pedrico Kravtsov (868) and an unranked opponent.
- The two windows barely overlap in time: Rune's entries run 25 August to 18 October 2025, Radulov's run through 6 September 2026.
- Current rankings: Rune 144, Radulov 596.
Radulov, ranked 596, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand coached by Hristo Boyanov. He has played 194 tour matches with a 61.9% career win rate, and almost all of that work has come on clay.
If the tie is on clay, his heavy clay schedule is a real counterweight to the ranking gap, since that is where he has played nearly all his tennis and where he won 23 matches in 2026. On a hard court, his 4-6 record this year and 2.5 aces per match point to much less resistance. The surface is not in the feed, so this stays a condition.
- Career surface wins: 96 on clay, 21 on hard, 3 on indoor hard, so roughly 80% of his 120 tour wins came on clay.
- 2026 surface record: 23-12 on clay, 4-6 on hard, 0-1 indoors.
- Inside the last-15 window he is 1-4 on clay with 27.3% of sets won, and 4-6 on hard with 2.5 aces per match.
- The tournament entry in the feed lists Davis Cup with no surface for this tie.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Serve/return structural edge plus a large quality-of-opposition gap favour Rune, but the <30-day-old reported Achilles withdrawal keeps confidence at MEDIUM rather than HIGH (signals 2 and 3, offset by signal 4).
- Rune career: 65.2% win rate (287-440), 71% points won on first serve, 61% tiebreak win rate vs Radulov's 61.9% (120-194) and 64% first-serve points won — a clear class gap at No. 144 vs No. 596.
- Rune last-15 window (15 tracked): 9-6 (60%), 74.9% first-serve points won and 62.1% break points saved across the 13 matches with serve data.
- Radulov last-15 window: 5-10 (33.3%), 43.8% games won, 35.2% break points converted; recent losses to opponents ranked 260, 281, 298, 459, 753 and 868 (Jun-Sep 2026).
- Rune's most recent tracked match (2025-10-18) ended 4-6 2-2 ret. vs Humbert, and no stored match appears after that date.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHolger RuneEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Serve/return structural edge implies Rune wins by a multi-game margin, tempered by the reported fitness question.
- Rune last-15 games won 54% (209/387) against top-150 opposition vs Radulov's 43.8% (145/331) against largely sub-300 opposition.
- Rune's 41.4% break points converted on hard and 40.6% overall in the last-15 window suggest multiple breaks per match.
- Radulov's 53.8% break points saved in the last 15 leaves him exposed to repeated service breaks.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHolger Rune -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rune's serve dominance plus Radulov's weak second-serve numbers favour an early break and a short first set.
- Rune's 74.9% first-serve points won and 62.1% break points saved in the last-15 window (13 tracked matches) curb long opening sets.
- Radulov's 64.1% first-serve points won and 46.9% second-serve points won in the last 15 make his opening holds fragile.
- Radulov lost opening sets 6-3, 6-1, 6-2 or 6-4 in several 2026 matches (Jun-Sep).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Structural hold/break gaps point to short sets, but Rune's long layoff and possible rust create genuine two-sided variance on the line.
- Rune last-15 average duration 126.7 minutes over 13 tracked matches with 54% games won; Radulov averages 109.7 minutes with 43.8% games won.
- Rune's 62.1% break points saved and 74.9% first-serve points won limit opponent games in short matches.
- Radulov holds only 64.1% of first-serve points in his last 15, so games against his serve tend to be short.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined career and recent-window set-winning margins point to Rune taking the opening set, with his serve-hold profile the strongest Core-5 lever.
- Rune last-15: 64.9% sets won (24/37) and 54% games won (209/387) across the full 15-match window.
- Rune career first-set conversion 88% with 71% win on first serve and a 61% career tiebreak win rate.
- Radulov last-15: only 34.3% sets won (12/35) and 1-4 on clay across 5 tracked clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHolger RuneEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Same serve/return structural edge applies in set two, though Rune's layoff and the reported Achilles issue add late-match variance.
- Rune last-15 sets won 64.9% (24/37) with 74.9% first-serve points won over 13 tracked matches.
- Radulov last-15 sets won just 34.3% (12/35) and 46.9% second-serve points won, offering limited resistance on return.
- Radulov's 2026 clay record 23-12 is his best surface, but his last-15 clay sample is 1-4.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHolger RuneEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The quality gap and Radulov's poor set-conversion rate favour a two-set finish, offset by Rune's reported fitness uncertainty.
- Radulov lost in straight sets in 7 of his last 15 tracked matches (2026 season) with only 34.3% sets won.
- Rune won 2-0 in five of his last 15 tracked matches (2025 window) and holds a 64.9% sets-won rate.
- Radulov comeback rate 19% (career) argues against him extending the tie to a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rune's straight-sets closing rate against a low-ranked opponent supports 2-0, but readiness risk after the reported withdrawal caps this at MEDIUM.
- Rune last-15: 60% match win rate with 64.9% sets won, and 25 of 37 sets lost-or-won pattern showing he usually closes in straight sets when ahead.
- Radulov last-15: 5-10 record with only 12 of 35 sets won (34.3%), losing in straight sets in 7 of 15 matches.
- Radulov career deciding-set win rate 57% but comeback rate only 19%, limiting his three-set upside.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonHolger Rune 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rune's high serve volume in a likely two-set match clears a modest combined ace line, a serve-profile signal independent of the fitness narrative.
- Rune averaged 7.5 aces per match across 13 tracked matches in the last-15 window (8.2 on hard, 5.8 on indoor hard).
- Radulov averaged only 2.1 aces per match across all 15 tracked matches, adding limited but real volume.
- Rune's 63.2% first-serve-in rate with 74.9% points won on first serve supports a steady ace count even in a short match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two players combining to roughly 6 double faults per match each in the recent window make the combined over realistic, though match length is the main risk.
- Rune averaged 3.2 double faults per match across 13 tracked matches in the last-15 window (3.1 on hard).
- Radulov averaged 3.2 double faults per match across all 15 tracked matches (3.6 on clay).
- Both players convert only 59.4-63.2% of first serves in the last-15 window, keeping second-serve exposure live.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frequent breaks of a fragile Radulov serve reduce the chance of a 6-6 set, making 'No' the marginal lean; low confidence given Rune's limited recent sample.
- Radulov's last-15 return points won is 38% and his first-serve points won only 64.1%, so his holds are frequently broken rather than taken to 6-6.
- Rune's 62.1% break points saved and 40.6% break points converted in the last-15 window point to breaks on both sides of the net.
- Radulov's career tiebreak win rate is 43%, and his 2026 matches rarely reached a 6-6 set outside a few tiebreak losses.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Holger Rune

9W 6L

4-6 2-2 ret.#33Ugo Humbert

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-4 6-4#120Marton Fucsovics

2-6 7-6(4) 6-4#21Valentin Vacherot

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#106Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-4 6-4#33Ugo Humbert

7-5 6-4#51Sebastian Baez

6-3 6-3#78Jenson Brooksby

6-4 6-2#57Ethan Quinn

7-6(7) 6-1#77Hamad Medjedovic

6-3 7-6(5)#23Francisco Cerundolo

6-1 4-6 7-6(3)#132Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 6-3#71Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(5) 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5#64Jan-Lennard Struff

6-3 7-6(4) 7-6(2)#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

Iliyan Radulov

5W 10L

6-7(5) 7-6(5) 6-0#318Oriol Roca Batalla

6-7(0) 6-4 6-1#298Johannus Monday

6-1 7-6(5)—Mark Ceban

6-4 3-6 7-5#298Johannus Monday

6-2 6-1#260Michele Ribecai

6-3 6-2#459Cyril Vandermeersch

6-4 6-4#230Ilya Ivashka

6-2 6-2#486Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-4 6-4#329Yanki Erel

6-3 3-6 6-4#371Hamish Stewart

2-6 6-2 6-3#868Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

6-3 6-2#281Matteo Martineau

6-3 6-4#753Stefano D'Agostino

6-3 7-6(5)—Leonardo Malgaroli

6-4 6-3#456Luca Staeheli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HRHolger RuneRune

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Iliyan RadulovRadulovIR

Holger Rune carries the stronger recent form — Iliyan Radulov's route runs through double faults / match.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1563.2%+3.8pp59.4%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1574.9%+10.8pp64.1%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1551.3%+4.4pp46.9%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/157.5+5.42.1

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.2—3.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1539.2%+1.2pp38.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1540.6%+5.4pp35.2%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1562.1%+8.3pp53.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1552.3%+4.9pp47.4%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

63.2%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+3.8pp59.4%

74.9%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+10.8pp64.1%

51.3%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+4.4pp46.9%

7.5Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+5.42.1

3.2Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/15—3.2

Return · 1–0

39.2%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.2pp38.0%

Pressure · 2–0

40.6%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+5.4pp35.2%

62.1%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+8.3pp53.8%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+4.9pp47.4%