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Predictions graded

Gustavo Heide #133Brazil2Stan Wawrinka #125Switzerland1

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 6-4Fri 18 Sept 2026, 20:42 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStan Wawrinka · 8 places

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

Reliable current profile details beyond the supplied ranking, playing hand and height were not confirmed. Use the structured form and match statistics as the main context.

Current ranking: #133
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Stan Wawrinka

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 3, reached in January 2014; 2026 is his announced final professional season.

Current ranking: #125
Peak ranking: #3 · 2014
Current age: 41
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 20:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Gustavo Heide at 2.60 is the standout value: his clay form and surface fit outweigh Wawrinka’s fading recent results, while Wawrinka at 1.50 is a clear avoid.

Expect a competitive, hold-heavy match with over games, Wawrinka +3.5, and tiebreak/ace/double-fault overs as secondary angles.

Context

Heide, ranked No. 123, is a Brazilian right-hander with a two-handed backhand whose 2026 season is clay-heavy: 30-14 on clay against 1-5 on hard courts. Wawrinka, No. 134, has 721 career wins in 1,170 matches, and his current 15-match window shows only three wins.
Heide's clay sample covers just 12 matches and includes a 6-2 6-1 loss to No. 257 Brunold on 11 September, so the 7-5 mark is not a settled platform. Wawrinka's last five defeats came to Berrettini (43), Burruchaga (56), Faria (70) and Safiullin (107), with his only win over Svrcina (117) via two tiebreaks, so the quality of opposition is the main reason the win-loss figures point in opposite directions.
- Heide last 15: 7-15 overall, 7-5 on clay across 12 tracked matches, 0-3 on hard.
- Wawrinka last 15: 3-15 overall, 2-8 on clay across 10 tracked matches, 1-3 on hard, 0-1 on grass.
- Wawrinka's last five opponents: Berrettini (43), Safiullin (107), Svrcina (117), Burruchaga (56), Faria (70).
- Heide's recent clay results include wins over Dedura (188), Cuenin (307) and Monteiro (282), plus a 6-2 6-1 loss to Brunold (257).
Wawrinka, No. 134, serves with a one-handed backhand and has 7,142 career aces; the serve remains the strongest part of his current game. Heide, No. 123, is a two-handed right-hander whose own serve is more vulnerable, at 2.9 aces and 4.0 double faults per match in the same window.
Heide converted 38.6% of break points and saved 64.2% in his last 15, against Wawrinka's 29.4% converted and 54.7% saved, so the return exchanges lean Heide's way even though Wawrinka's first serve is the bigger shot. Heide's 57.4% first-serve rate and four double faults a match hand Wawrinka return chances, but his 33% return-point rate shows how rarely he has taken them.
- Wawrinka last 15 (15 matches tracked): 7.1 aces per match, 72.3% first-serve points won, 54.7% break points saved.
- Wawrinka last 15: 33% return points won and 29.4% break points converted, his weakest measured areas.
- Heide last 15 (15 matches tracked): 38.6% break points converted, 36.8% return points won, 64.2% break points saved.
- Heide's serve in the same window: 2.9 aces and 4.0 double faults per match, with 57.4% first serves in.
Wawrinka, No. 134, plays with a one-handed backhand and has averaged 139.3 minutes per match across his last 15, well above Heide's 109.5. His only win in the last five, over Svrcina, also came through two tiebreaks.
Heide has won 48.5% of his sets in the same window and decided his clay sets by wider margins, so a close-set pattern points to the player who has been closing them. Wawrinka's last match was on 31 August, an 18-day gap, which removes accumulated fatigue as the explanation for the 6-0 third set he lost to Berrettini.
- Wawrinka last 15: 29.3% sets won (12 of 41), average match duration 139.3 minutes.
- US Open, 31 August: lost to Berrettini 7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-0 after two tiebreak sets.
- Wimbledon, 30 June: lost to Berrettini 6-7(7) 7-6(16) 7-6(7) 7-6(5), with three tiebreak sets lost.
- Heide last 15: 48.5% sets won, average match duration 109.5 minutes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Surface-fit and recent-form signals both favor Heide: he is a dedicated clay-courter in positive current shape while Wawrinka's last-15 window is 3-12 with a 2-8 clay split, so the strong Core 5 surface/form signals outweigh Wawrinka's residual serve quality.
- Heide last-15 clay record 7-5 (58.3%, 12 matches tracked) vs Wawrinka last-15 clay 2-8 (20%, 10 tracked)
- Heide 2026 season clay 30-14, his clear best surface; Wawrinka 2026 clay 2-8
- Wawrinka last-15 overall only 3-12 and 41 years old; last clay win over an opponent inside the top 200 came May 2026
- Heide clay break points converted 38.2% (29/76) vs Wawrinka clay 30.4% (24/79) — edge in converting chances
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGustavo HeideEstimated chance57%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wawrinka's game-level competitiveness and strong serve numbers suggest a margin under 4 games is the more likely outcome, even if Heide is favored to win.
- Wawrinka clay last-15 games won 47.1% (138/293) — competitive at game level despite 2-8 set record
- Wawrinka first-serve points won 72.3% last-15 (71.3% on clay) keeps him in sets
- Heide clay last-15 games won 49.8% (125/251), no evidence of dominant scorelines against top-200 clay opponents
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonStan Wawrinka +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low break-point conversion on both sides plus Wawrinka's hold-oriented serve profile points to longer, hold-dominated sets, supporting an Over games line at moderate confidence.
- Wawrinka last-15 average match duration 139.3 minutes and 41 sets played across 15 matches (2.73 sets/match)
- Both convert breaks poorly recently: Heide 38.6% (34/88), Wawrinka 29.4% (30/102)
- Wawrinka clay last-15 games won 47.1% (138/293) and Heide clay 49.8% (125/251) — near-even game-level profile
- Wawrinka serve-heavy profile (7.1 aces/match last-15) supports hold-heavy sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets have tended to be tight and serve-driven, giving a modest lean to a longer opening set.
- Wawrinka's last three hard-court matches included tiebreak sets (7-6(4) 7-6(3) vs Berrettini; 7-6(6) 7-6(3) vs Svrcina)
- Heide clay last-15 first-serve points won 68.0% and Wawrinka clay 71.3% — both hold-capable
- Heide clay break points converted 38.2%, Wawrinka clay 30.4% — moderate break rates keep sets close
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Same hold-heavy structural logic as the opening set, applied to set two, with weak conviction given the surface uncertainty.
- Wawrinka last-15 played 41 sets over 15 matches, frequently pushing sets past 9 games
- Heide clay last-15 average match duration 108.1 minutes with multiple 7-5/7-6 sets (e.g. 7-5 7-5 vs Pereira)
- Mutual low break conversion (Heide 38.6%, Wawrinka 29.4%) supports holds
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Heide's stronger opening-set conversion and better clay hold/break-save numbers give him a modest first-set edge, but the signal is thin so confidence stays low.
- Heide career first-set win conversion 89% vs Wawrinka 83%
- Heide clay last-15: first-serve points won 68.0%, break points saved 66.7% (56/84) — stable early hold profile
- Wawrinka last-15 break points converted only 29.4% (30/102), limiting early pressure
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGustavo HeideEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wawrinka's persistently long three-set profile and the near-even ranking gap make a deciding set plausible, though Heide's fast 2-0 wins cap the confidence.
- Wawrinka last-15 window: 41 sets in 15 matches (2.73 sets/match), many three-setters
- Heide last-15 window: 33 sets in 15 matches; 8 of 15 matches went to a deciding set or third set
- Both are closely ranked (Heide 123, Wawrinka 134) with no H2H history to separate them
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set-specific edge is weak but tilted by Heide's much better clay set-win rate and Wawrinka's tendency to fade after dropping a set, so this is a low-confidence lean only.
- Heide clay last-15 sets won 57.7% (15/26) vs Wawrinka clay 32.1% (9/28)
- Wawrinka's recent losses frequently come after losing the opening set (e.g. 6-3 6-4 to Safiullin, 6-2 6-3 to Medvedev)
- Heide clay return points won 38.3% vs Wawrinka 35.7% — small sustained pressure edge
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGustavo HeideEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate from both players' well-covered last-15 windows comfortably exceeds 4.5 across a best-of-three match, anchored on Heide's especially high clay double-fault volume.
- Heide last-15 4.0 double faults/match overall (60/15), 3.7/match on clay (44/12)
- Wawrinka last-15 3.1 double faults/match overall (47/15), 2.6/match on clay (26/10)
- Combined last-15 clay average of roughly 6.3 double faults per match, above the 4.5 line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wawrinka's heavy serve volume combined with Heide's modest but non-trivial ace rate gives a combined expectation above the 8.5 line across a likely 2-3 set match.
- Wawrinka last-15 overall 7.1 aces/match (106/15), 7.2/match on clay (72/10)
- Heide last-15 2.9 aces/match overall (44/15), 3.2/match on clay (38/12)
- Wawrinka recorded 18 aces in a single grass match in the last-15 window, showing high serve ceiling
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mutually low break conversion plus Wawrinka's serve-driven, tiebreak-heavy recent match pattern makes at least one tiebreak more likely than not.
- Wawrinka's last-15 window includes multiple tiebreak sets (vs Berrettini, Svrcina, Faria, Michelsen)
- Wawrinka career tiebreak win rate 53%, Heide 61% — both familiar with tiebreak situations
- Both players' break-point conversion is low recently (Heide 38.6%, Wawrinka 29.4%), favoring level sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance56%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Laying 1.50 on a 41-year-old who is 3-12 in his last 15 and 2-8 on clay offers no margin over a fair price nearer even.

Prediction history

Gustavo Heide has been moderately reliable when projected to win, though recent evidence includes four losses

Gustavo Heide fulfilled 7 of 11 supplied winner projections, matching the expected 7 at an average estimated probability of 63.5. The four misses were all subject losses, and the missed projections averaged 59 versus 66.1 for the matched ones, indicating the lower-probability projections carried more risk. The historical range of 58 to 72 places the current estimate of 57 just below that band. This is a small recent sample rather than a fixed characteristic.

Recent evidence for Gustavo Heide11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#136Gustavo Heide0-2#262Kilian Feldbausch

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·58%

Missed

18 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#136Gustavo Heide0-2#262Kilian Feldbausch

Gustavo Heide to win

58%probability

Kilian Feldbausch won

Missed

9 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#272Cezar Cretu1-2#141Gustavo Heide

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·62%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#272Cezar Cretu1-2#141Gustavo Heide

Gustavo Heide to win

62%probability

Gustavo Heide won

Matched

4 Jul·Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide0-2#195Marco Cecchinato

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·58%

Missed

4 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide0-2#195Marco Cecchinato

Gustavo Heide to win

58%probability

Marco Cecchinato won

Missed

3 Jul·Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide2-0#359Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·62%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide2-0#359Enrico Dalla Valle

Gustavo Heide to win

62%probability

Gustavo Heide won

Matched

1 Jul·Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide2-0#253Alex Barrena

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·72%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide2-0#253Alex Barrena

Gustavo Heide to win

72%probability

Gustavo Heide won

Matched

Gustavo Heide

7W 8L

6-2 6-1#257Mika Brunold

6-1 7-5#188Diego Dedura

6-3 6-4#307Sean Cuenin

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#218Facundo Mena

6-4 6-3#282Thiago Moura Monteiro

7-5 7-5#338Tiago Pereira

6-4 6-3#752Goncalo Marques

2-6 6-4 6-4#179Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-2#288Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#42Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-2#270Kilian Feldbausch

6-1 6-3#89Titouan Droguet

2-6 7-5 6-3#271Cezar Cretu

6-4 7-6(4)#896David Poljak

6-1 7-5#163Marco Cecchinato

Stan Wawrinka

3W 12L

7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-0#43Matteo Berrettini

6-3 6-4#107Roman Safiullin

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#117Dalibor Svrcina

6-4 4-6 6-3#56Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#70Jaime Faria

6-7(7) 7-6(16) 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#43Matteo Berrettini

6-3 3-6 6-3 6-4#98Jesper De Jong

7-6(1) 7-6(4)#34Alex Michelsen

6-2 4-6 7-6(5)#225Raul Brancaccio

4-6 7-6(5) 6-1#158Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-4#124Sebastian Ofner

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#39Cameron Norrie

7-5 7-5#51Sebastian Baez

2-6 6-4 7-6(2)#281Matteo Martineau

6-2 6-3#6Daniil Medvedev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GHGustavo HeideHeide

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Stan WawrinkaWawrinkaSW

Gustavo Heide carries the stronger recent form — Stan Wawrinka's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.4%+2.8pp54.6%

1st Serve Won68.1%+4.2pp72.3%

2nd Serve Won52.0%—51.6%

Aces / Match2.9+4.27.1

Double Faults / Match4.00.9 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won36.8%+3.8pp33.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted38.6%+9.2pp29.4%

Break Pts Saved64.2%+9.5pp54.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.1%+1.0pp48.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

57.4%1st Serve In+2.8pp54.6%

68.1%1st Serve Won+4.2pp72.3%

52.0%2nd Serve Won—51.6%

2.9Aces / Match+4.27.1

4.0Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

36.8%Return Pts Won+3.8pp33.0%

Pressure · 2–0

38.6%Break Pts Converted+9.2pp29.4%

64.2%Break Pts Saved+9.5pp54.7%

Points · 1–0

49.1%Total Pts Won+1.0pp48.1%

Gustavo Heide

Stan Wawrinka

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gustavo Heide

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Stan Wawrinka @ 1.50

Gustavo Heide

Stan Wawrinka

Stat Battle