ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Tommaso Compagnucci #364Italy0Juan Cruz Martin Manzano #405Italy2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Thu 17 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTommaso Compagnucci · 41 places

Tommaso Compagnucci

Italy

Italian player born 5 November 1999. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; his 2026 record in the retrieved official profile was predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #364
Peak ranking: #364 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

Italy

Italian left-hander, born 15 December 2004. Public profile data lists hard courts as his preferred surface and a career-best ranking of No. 437 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #405
Peak ranking: #437 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 03:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Compagnucci has a slight ranking and form edge, but Manzano's recent H2H win and strong return game make this a close contest.

No clear betting value on the match winner, but over 21.5 total games and over 5.5 double faults are moderate leans.

Context

Compagnucci, 380th, is a clay-court specialist with a 60.5% career win rate and a 92% first-set win conversion.
His 10-5 record in the last 15 matches is strong, but the five losses were against players ranked 72, 262, 282, 465, and 491. Against lower-ranked opponents, he has been dominant, winning 12 of 13 sets. This suggests he is reliable against weaker opposition but may struggle if Manzano can raise his level.
- Last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%)
- All 15 matches were on clay
- Losses came against opponents ranked 72, 262, 282, 465, 491
- Wins included opponents ranked 274, 334, 358, 482, 757, 879, 896
Manzano, 455th, is a left-handed clay-court player with a 63.3% career win rate and a 52% career break point conversion rate.
In the last 15 matches, Manzano has been more effective on return, winning 44.5% of return points compared to Compagnucci's 40.1%. He also converts break points at a higher rate (54.1% vs 47.2%). This could be decisive in a match where both players have similar serve stats, as Manzano may create more break opportunities and capitalize on them.
- Manzano last 15 return points won: 44.5%
- Compagnucci last 15 return points won: 40.1%
- Manzano break point conversion: 54.1%
- Compagnucci break point conversion: 47.2%
The two players have met three times, all on clay, with Manzano winning two of those matches.
Manzano won their most recent encounter in June 2026 in three sets, but Compagnucci had won their previous meeting in March 2026 in straight sets. The head-to-head is close, and both players have shown they can beat each other on clay. This suggests a competitive match with no clear psychological edge for either player.
- June 2026: Manzano won 6-3 6-7(7) 6-4
- March 2026: Compagnucci won 6-2 6-1
- August 2025: Manzano won 6-2 6-1

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Tommaso Compagnucci

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Compagnucci's slightly better recent record and ranking are offset by Manzano's superior return stats and recent H2H win, making the odds close to fair.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Compagnucci has slightly better recent form and ranking, but Manzano won the most recent H2H, making this a close match.
- Last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs opponent 9-6 (60%)
- Last 15 clay record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs opponent 9-6 (60%)
- H2H: Compagnucci leads 2-1, but lost most recent meeting in June 2026
- Compagnucci ranking 380 vs Manzano 455
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTommaso CompagnucciEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match averages and competitive H2H suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Compagnucci last 15 average games per match: 19.5 (292 games / 15 matches)
- Manzano last 15 average games per match: 20.9 (313 games / 15 matches)
- H2H matches: 6-3 6-7 6-4 (32 games), 6-2 6-1 (15 games), 6-2 6-1 (15 games)
- Both players have similar games won percentage around 53.4%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 9 games per set, making over 9.5 games in the first set likely.
- Compagnucci last 15 average games per set: 9.1 (292 games / 32 sets)
- Manzano last 15 average games per set: 8.9 (313 games / 35 sets)
- H2H first sets: 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 (average 8.3 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite some lopsided H2H second sets, overall set averages support over 9.5 games.
- Compagnucci last 15 average games per set: 9.1
- Manzano last 15 average games per set: 8.9
- H2H second sets: 7-6, 6-1, 6-1 (average 7.7 games)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Compagnucci's stronger first serve and break point saving in recent matches gives a slight edge in the opening set.
- Compagnucci first set win conversion career 92% vs Manzano 89%
- Compagnucci last 15 first serve points won 69.3% vs Manzano 63.8%
- Compagnucci last 15 break points saved 51.4% vs Manzano 48.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTommaso CompagnucciEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Manzano's high double fault rate drives the combined average above 5.5.
- Compagnucci last 15 double faults per match: 1.6
- Manzano last 15 double faults per match: 4.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages slightly exceed 4.5, making over 4.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Compagnucci last 15 aces per match: 2.3
- Manzano last 15 aces per match: 2.3
- Combined average aces per match: 4.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

L6-3 6-7(7) 6-4Tommaso Compagnucci#380vJuan Cruz Martin Manzano#455Jun 15, 2026

W6-2 6-1Tommaso Compagnucci#380vJuan Cruz Martin Manzano#455Mar 21, 2026

L6-2 6-1Tommaso Compagnucci#380vJuan Cruz Martin Manzano#455Aug 19, 2025

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Tommaso Compagnucci

10W 5L

6-1 6-2—Riccardo Carpano

6-2 6-2#262Dominic Stricker

6-3 6-7(1) 6-4#274Juan Manuel La Serna

6-3 6-2#482Ryan Nijboer

7-5 6-3#896Max Dahlin

6-2 6-4#282Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-3 7-5#757Aleksandr Braynin

6-4 6-2#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 7-6(3)#334Dali Blanch

6-2 6-1—Siddhant Banthia

6-2 6-4#491Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-2 7-6(3)#358Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-2—Alex Huszar

6-4 4-6 6-2#879Petros Tsitsipas

6-0 6-0#465Matthew William Donald

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

9W 6L

6-2 6-1#553Pierluigi Basile 6-2 7-5#526Gerard Campana Lee 6-1 6-1#886Michele Mecarelli

7-5 2-6 6-1#354Valerio Aboian

7-6(5) 5-7 6-2#349Duje Ajdukovic

6-3 3-6 6-0#544Fausto Tabacco

6-2 6-0#681Giovanni Oradini

6-2 6-1—Gregorio Biondolillo

6-1 6-4#186Federico Agustin Gomez

6-4 6-4#613Alexander Weis

6-4 2-6 6-4#772Daniele Rapagnetta

6-3 6-4#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-3 6-7(5) 6-1#545Martin Van Der Meerschen

5-2 ret.—Raffaele Ciurnelli

6-7(4) 6-3 6-3—Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TCTommaso CompagnucciCompagnucci

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Juan Cruz Martin ManzanoManzanoJM

Tommaso Compagnucci carries the stronger recent form — Juan Cruz Martin Manzano's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In63.1%—62.5%

1st Serve Won69.3%+5.5pp63.8%

2nd Serve Won49.7%+1.9pp47.8%

Aces / Match2.3—2.3

Double Faults / Match1.62.5 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.1%+4.4pp44.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.2%+6.9pp54.1%

Break Pts Saved51.4%+2.9pp48.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.0%—51.2%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

63.1%1st Serve In—62.5%

69.3%1st Serve Won+5.5pp63.8%

49.7%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp47.8%

2.3Aces / Match—2.3

1.6Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

40.1%Return Pts Won+4.4pp44.5%

Pressure · 1–1

47.2%Break Pts Converted+6.9pp54.1%

51.4%Break Pts Saved+2.9pp48.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won—51.2%