PortugalWTA Caldas Da RainhaFinished

Predictions graded

Mia Pohankova #247Slovakia2Matilde Jorge #261Portugal0

Sets 6-4 · 6-1Wed 16 Sept 2026, 10:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMia Pohankova · 14 places

Mia Pohankova

Slovakia

Reached a career-best WTA singles ranking of No. 243 in June 2026. Official WTA data shows a strong ranking rise during 2026; no reliable preferred-surface fact was found.

Current ranking: #247
Peak ranking: #243 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Matilde Jorge

Portugal

Jorge, 22, is a Portuguese right-hander. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 212, reached in 2025.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: #212 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Matilde Jorge is the value play at 2.40, with a 62% estimated win probability against an implied 41.7%, driven by her strong hard-court form and Pohankova's limited surface sample.

The match is likely to be competitive, supporting over 20.5 total games at 1.80. Avoid Pohankova as a favorite at 1.55, as her recent results and hard-court data suggest she is overpriced.

Context

Jorge, ranked 261, has built a 19-8 hard-court record in 2026 and is comfortable on this surface. Pohankova, ranked 233, has a 2-1 hard-court record in her last three matches but was beaten 6-1 6-1 by Katie Volynets in her most recent hard-court outing.
Jorge's recent hard-court sample is much larger and more successful, with wins over players ranked inside the top 200. Pohankova's only hard-court wins in this window came against lower-ranked opponents, and her loss to Volynets shows she can be overwhelmed by stronger opposition. This suggests Jorge is better prepared for the surface, though Pohankova's small sample leaves some uncertainty.
- Jorge's last 15 hard-court matches: 10 wins, 4 losses (71.4% win rate).
- Pohankova's last 3 hard-court matches: 2 wins, 1 loss, including a 6-1 6-1 defeat to Katie Volynets (ranked 77).
- Jorge has beaten players ranked 150, 187, and 191 on hard courts in the last month.
Matilde Jorge, 25, is the WTA No. 261 and right-handed. She arrives after winning the W50 Évora final on 13 September.
Jorge played a 2h53 final three days before this match, which adds recent workload. Her five-match winning streak suggests she has managed the load well, but the quick turnaround could affect her energy in a best-of-3 contest.
- The W50 Évora final on 13 September lasted 2h53.
- Stored recent sample: 5 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-09-11T09:35:00.000Z against Katie Swan ended by retirement; the stored result was W.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 03:02 · Europe/BucharestMatilde Jorge campeã pela terceira vezwww.cdp.pt · 13 Sep 2026
Jorge's second serve is vulnerable, winning only 43% of points behind it in her last 15 matches. Pohankova's return game has been modest, winning 43.4% of return points overall.
If Jorge continues to double fault at this rate, Pohankova will get more opportunities on second serves. However, Pohankova's return numbers are not strong enough to guarantee she converts those chances, so the impact may be limited unless Jorge's serve breaks down under pressure.
- Jorge's last 15 matches: 6.0 double faults per match.
- Jorge's second serve points won: 43.0%.
- Pohankova's return points won: 43.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Jorge's stronger recent hard-court form and higher overall win rate give her the edge, though Pohankova's small hard-court sample adds uncertainty.
- Jorge last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Pohankova 7-8 (46.7%)
- Jorge hard-court last 15 record 10-4 (71.4%), Pohankova hard-court last 15 record 2-1 (66.7%) but only 3 matches
- Jorge has won 5 straight matches on hard courts, including a 2h53 final on 13 Sep
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMatilde JorgeEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The competitive nature of the matchup and both players' tendency to play longer matches support a total above 20.5 games.
- Jorge last 15 average duration 118 minutes, Pohankova 103 minutes
- Jorge last 15 games won 54%, Pohankova 47.3%
- Both players have played several three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive first sets, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.
- Jorge's recent hard-court matches have averaged 9.8 games per set
- Pohankova's hard-court matches have averaged 9.3 games per set
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jorge's overall game-winning percentage suggests she can cover a -2.5 game handicap.
- Jorge games won 54% in last 15, Pohankova 47.3%
- Jorge hard-court games won 55%, Pohankova 56.5% but small sample
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMatilde Jorge -2.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jorge's recent momentum and higher set-win percentage suggest she is slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Jorge first-set win rate implied by 62.9% sets won in last 15
- Pohankova first-set win conversion career 95%, but recent first-set performance mixed
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatilde JorgeEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The players' recent history of three-set matches suggests a close contest, but the probability is near a coin flip.
- Jorge has played 3 three-set matches in last 15
- Pohankova has played 5 three-set matches in last 15
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jorge's high double-fault rate drives the combined total above the line.
- Jorge averages 6.0 double faults per match, Pohankova 3.7
- Combined average double faults per match 9.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages are right at the line, making over 5.5 a marginal lean.
- Pohankova averages 3.7 aces per match, Jorge 1.8
- Combined average aces per match 5.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Mia Pohankova

7W 8L

6-1 6-1#95Sinja Kraus

6-1 6-1#77Katie Volynets

6-3 6-3#341Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

6-1 4-6 6-4#251Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-3 7-5#184Mia Ristic

1-6 6-0 6-1#152Ekaterine Gorgodze

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#221Harmony Tan

6-1 6-4#177Rebeka Masarova

6-2 7-6(1)#49Tamara Korpatsch

6-2 6-2#74Magda Linette

6-4 6-4#36Clara Tauson

6-2 7-6(3)#124Noma Akugue Noha

1-6 6-4 7-6(3)#106Francesca Jones

7-6(6) 6-2#336Tessa Johanna Brockmann

3-6 7-6(8) 6-1#97Simona Waltert

Matilde Jorge

10W 5L

6-1 2-6 6-4#191Anastasia Gasanova

7-5 6-4#191Anastasia Gasanova

6-1 1-6 6-3#375Sofia Johnson

4-0 ret.#187Katie Swan

2-6 6-4 3-2 ret.#209Greetje Minnen

6-3 6-4#360Margaux Rouvroy

6-0 6-3#191Anastasia Gasanova

6-0 6-1#467Valentina Ivanov

6-7(8) 6-4 6-2#382Sonja Zhiyenbayeva

7-6(5) 6-0#150Sofia Costoulas

6-2 7-5#616Isis Louise Van Den Broek

6-2 6-3—Maria Berlanga Bandera

6-1 7-6(4)#272Mina Hodzic

4-6 6-3 7-5#529Carmen Gallardo Guevara

7-5 2-6 6-3#792Chloe Noel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMia PohankovaPohankova

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Matilde JorgeJorgeMJ

Matilde Jorge carries the stronger recent form — Mia Pohankova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In55.4%+3.8pp59.2%

1st Serve Won64.1%+4.7pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won44.6%+1.6pp43.0%

Aces / Match3.7+1.91.8

Double Faults / Match3.72.3 fewer6.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won43.4%—44.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.4%+6.0pp44.4%

Break Pts Saved56.2%+7.1pp63.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.4%+1.9pp51.3%

Serve · 3–2

55.4%1st Serve In+3.8pp59.2%

64.1%1st Serve Won+4.7pp68.8%

44.6%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp43.0%

3.7Aces / Match+1.91.8

3.7Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer6.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

43.4%Return Pts Won—44.0%

Pressure · 0–2

38.4%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp44.4%

56.2%Break Pts Saved+7.1pp63.3%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won+1.9pp51.3%

Mia Pohankova

Matilde Jorge

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Matilde Jorge

Over 20.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Mia Pohankova

Matilde Jorge

Stat Battle