PortugalWTA Caldas Da RainhaFinished

Predictions graded

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson #228Sweden1Lisa Pigato #135Italy2

Sets 2-6 · 6-2 · 4-6Wed 16 Sept 2026, 15:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLisa Pigato · 93 places

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Sweden

A Swedish tennis report identifies her as 28 and describes the 2026 US Open qualifying event as her Grand Slam debut. No verified current injury issue was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #228
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Lisa Pigato

Italy

Pigato is a right-handed Italian player, born in June 2003. Available public profile material did not provide a reliable declared preferred surface or current fitness update.

Current ranking: #135
Peak ranking: #128 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Lisa Pigato is favored over Kajsa Rinaldo Persson based on ranking and hard-court record, but the odds (1.45) offer no value.

Best bets are over 20.5 total games and under 5.5 total aces, both with medium confidence.

Context

Pigato, ranked 137, is a clay-court specialist with 173 career clay wins but only 32 on hard courts.
Her last-15 hard-court stats show a 50% win rate and 58.1% games won, but that comes from just two matches. The sample is too small to suggest she will carry that level into this match, especially against an opponent who has also played limited hard-court tennis recently.
- Pigato's last-15 bySurface Hard record: 1 win, 1 loss in 2 matches.
- Her career hard-court record is 32 wins and 13 losses, far behind her 173 clay wins.
Persson, ranked 252, has a career win rate of 60% but has spent most of her recent schedule on clay.
In her last 15 matches, she is 8-7 overall, but her wins have come mostly against players ranked outside the top 200. Against top-200 opponents she has lost five of six, which suggests she may struggle against Pigato, who is ranked 137.
- Persson's last-15 record: 8 wins, 7 losses.
- She lost to Lola Radivojevic (158), Darya Astakhova (200), Kaitlin Quevedo (105), Fiona Ferro (107), and Elina Avanesyan (155).
- Her only top-200 win in that span was against Dalma Galfi (148).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Lisa Pigato

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Pigato's stronger 2026 hard-court record and higher ranking give her a slight edge, but the odds imply a much higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Pigato's stronger hard-court record and higher ranking give her a slight edge, though recent form is mixed for both.
- Lisa Pigato has a 2026 hard-court record of 10-3, while Kajsa Rinaldo Persson is 3-3 on hard in 2026.
- Pigato's last-15 overall record is 46.7% (7-8) but she won her most recent match 6-0 6-1 on hard.
- Persson's last-15 overall record is 53.3% (8-7) but only 1-1 on hard in that window.
- Pigato's career win percentage is 60.5% vs Persson's 60%, but Pigato has a higher ranking (137 vs 252).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLisa PigatoEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The players' similar competitive levels and Persson's tendency for longer matches support a higher total games count.
- Persson's last-15 average match duration is 108 minutes, indicating longer matches.
- Pigato's last-15 average match duration is 97.8 minutes.
- Both players have similar games won percentages (Persson 52.6%, Pigato 50.3%) in last 15.
- Persson's last-15 matches average 21.5 total games (323 games / 15 matches).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The players' similar serve and return stats suggest a competitive first set with a decent chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Persson's last-15 average games per set is 9.2 (323 games / 35 sets).
- Pigato's last-15 average games per set is 9.7 (302 games / 31 sets).
- Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages (Persson 58.3%, Pigato 59.2%).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pigato's recent dominant win and higher first-set conversion rate suggest she may start strongly.
- Pigato won her last match 6-0 6-1, showing strong early-set dominance.
- Persson's first-set win conversion is 85% career, but her recent hard-court first-set performance is limited.
- Pigato's first-set win conversion is 88% career, slightly higher than Persson's.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLisa PigatoEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, making under 5.5 total aces highly likely.
- Persson averages 0.5 aces per match in last 15, with only 7 total aces.
- Pigato averages 0.8 aces per match in last 15, with 12 total aces.
- Combined average aces per match is 1.3, well below 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The players' moderate tiebreak rates and Pigato's poor tiebreak record make a tiebreak less likely.
- Persson's tiebreak win percentage is 51% career, but she has played few tiebreaks recently.
- Pigato's tiebreak win percentage is 40% career, indicating she often loses tiebreaks.
- Neither player has a strong tendency to force tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double fault rates, suggesting the total may exceed 5.5.
- Persson averages 3.3 double faults per match in last 15.
- Pigato averages 3.4 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average double faults per match is 6.7, above 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Lisa Pigato has been unreliable when projected to win

Lisa Pigato has fulfilled 2 of 7 recent win projections, a 29% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 62.7%, but she won only 2 matches, far below the expected 4.4. All five missed projections ended in straight-set losses, and her current 58% probability sits within her historical range of 55-72%.

Recent evidence for Lisa Pigato7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#133Lisa Pigato0-1#364Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·72%

Missed

9 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#133Lisa Pigato0-1#364Aurora Zantedeschi

Lisa Pigato to win

72%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

7 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#212Angela Fita Boluda1-2#133Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#212Angela Fita Boluda1-2#133Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

62%probability

Lisa Pigato won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#152Noma Noha Akugue2-0#134Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·55%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#152Noma Noha Akugue2-0#134Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

55%probability

Noma Noha Akugue won

Missed

8 Jun·WTA Modena

#139Katarzyna Kawa2-0#138Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·58%

Missed

8 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#139Katarzyna Kawa2-0#138Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

58%probability

Katarzyna Kawa won

Missed

1 Jun·WTA Foggia

#224Elizara Yaneva0-2#138Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·65%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#224Elizara Yaneva0-2#138Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

65%probability

Lisa Pigato won

Matched

Previous match context available

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

8W 7L

6-3 7-5#356Angelina Voloshchuk

6-4 6-3#158Lola Radivojevic

5-7 7-5 5-2 ret.#273Eva Bennemann

7-5 6-2#543Ida Wobker

6-2 1-6 6-4#439Beatrise Zeltina

6-4 6-4#679Marta Lombardini

6-3 6-1#200Darya Astakhova

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#105Kaitlin Quevedo

6-4 7-6(4)#148Dalma Galfi

6-2 4-6 6-3#107Fiona Ferro

6-1 6-3#155Elina Avanesyan

4-6 6-3 6-2#265Anna-Lena Friedsam

6-2 6-0#433Laura Mair

6-2 6-1#789Eszter Meri

6-3 6-3#320Weronika Falkowska

Lisa Pigato

7W 8L

6-0 6-1—Sana Garakani

6-3 6-3#202Linda Klimovicova

6-2 5-5 ret.#264Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 1-6 7-6(7)#223Angela Fita Boluda

6-3 7-5#242Alice Tubello

6-4 6-3#213Maria Lourdes Carle

7-6(4) 7-5#570Laima Vladson

6-4 6-4#883Danka Kovinic

7-6(2) 6-3#124Noma Akugue Noha

6-4 6-4#128Katarzyna Kawa

6-3 2-6 6-3#200Darya Astakhova

7-6(5) 6-1#151Elizara Yaneva

6-4 6-1#169Sloane Stephens

6-1 6-3#212Aliona Falei

6-4 6-4#127Lucia Bronzetti

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KPKajsa Rinaldo PerssonPersson

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Lisa PigatoPigatoLP

Kajsa Rinaldo Persson carries the stronger recent form — Lisa Pigato's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In74.6%+4.6pp70.0%

1st Serve Won58.3%+0.9pp59.2%

2nd Serve Won45.3%+0.9pp46.2%

Aces / Match0.5+0.30.8

Double Faults / Match3.3—3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.1%+2.2pp44.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.0%+2.2pp46.8%

Break Pts Saved53.8%+4.7pp49.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.0%+0.9pp50.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

74.6%1st Serve In+4.6pp70.0%

58.3%1st Serve Won+0.9pp59.2%

45.3%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp46.2%

0.5Aces / Match+0.30.8

3.3Double Faults / Match—3.4

Return · 1–0

47.1%Return Pts Won+2.2pp44.9%

Pressure · 2–0

49.0%Break Pts Converted+2.2pp46.8%

53.8%Break Pts Saved+4.7pp49.1%

Points · 1–0

51.0%Total Pts Won+0.9pp50.1%