PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Tiago Pereira #352Portugal1Filip Pieczonka #900Poland2

Sets 7-5 · 4-6 · 5-7Tue 15 Sept 2026, 14:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–188%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTiago Pereira · 548 places

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

Reached a career-best No. 185 in July 2025. Current ATP singles ranking is No. 352.

Current ranking: #352
Peak ranking: #185 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Filip Pieczonka

Poland

Pieczonka, 22, is the left-hander in this matchup. His documented singles career-high ranking is No. 739, reached in June 2025.

Current ranking: #900
Peak ranking: #739 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Pereira's ranking edge is offset by Pieczonka's superior clay form, making this a close contest.

Best bets: over 21.5 total games, over 8.5 double faults, and Pieczonka +3.5 games. Avoid the match winner market due to negative value on Pereira.

Context

Pieczonka, 20, is a left-hander ranked 900 and has built his recent success on clay, winning 8 of his last 11 matches on the surface.
Pieczonka's clay numbers are stronger across the board: he wins 43.3% of return points and converts 45.8% of break points, compared to Pereira's 36.2% and 41.5%. Pereira's first-serve points won (67.8%) is slightly lower than Pieczonka's (68.6%), but the return gap is the key difference. This suggests Pieczonka can pressure Pereira's serve more effectively on clay.
- Pieczonka's last 15 clay matches: 8-3 record, 43.3% return points won, 45.8% break points converted.
- Pereira's last 15 clay matches: 6-4 record, 36.2% return points won, 41.5% break points converted.
- Pieczonka's recent clay wins include opponents ranked 336 and 470, while Pereira's wins have come against lower-ranked players.
Pereira, 25, is ranked 355 and has been active on the Challenger circuit, playing 15 matches in the last 30 days.
Pereira's recent schedule includes three three-set matches in his last five, including a 2-6 6-4 7-6(4) win over Rudolf Molleker on September 14. Pieczonka has played only 8 matches in the same period, with his last match also on September 14. The extra workload could affect Pereira's freshness in a best-of-three match.
- Pereira has played 15 matches in the last 30 days, including three three-setters in his last five.
- Pieczonka has played only 8 matches in the same period.
- Pereira's last match was a three-set win on September 14, the day before this match.
Pieczonka's serve has been inconsistent, with 6.9 double faults per match on clay in his last 10 matches.
Pieczonka's double fault rate is significantly higher than Pereira's 2.3 per match on clay. This could hand Pereira easy points and break opportunities, especially if Pieczonka's second serve remains vulnerable (47.1% points won). Pereira's return game is not elite, but he may not need to be aggressive to capitalize on Pieczonka's errors.
- Pieczonka averages 6.9 double faults per clay match in his last 10 matches.
- Pereira averages 2.3 double faults per clay match in his last 10 matches.
- Pieczonka wins only 47.1% of second-serve points on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Tiago Pereira

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Pereira's ranking and experience give him a slight edge, but the odds overestimate his chances relative to the model.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Pereira's superior ranking and experience, combined with solid recent form, give him a slight edge despite Pieczonka's strong clay record.
- Tiago Pereira has a 60% win rate in last 15 matches (9-6), while Filip Pieczonka also has 60% (9-6).
- Pereira's clay record in last 15 is 6-4 (60%), Pieczonka's is 8-3 (72.7%) on clay.
- Pereira has a higher ranking (355 vs 900) and more career wins (214 vs 67).
- Pereira's recent clay wins include opponents ranked 83 and 272, showing ability to beat higher-ranked players.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTiago PereiraEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their tendency to go to three sets suggests a longer match.
- Pereira's last 15 matches average 25.5 games per match (382 total games / 15 matches).
- Pieczonka's last 15 matches average 21.9 games per match (328 total games / 15 matches).
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches: Pereira 6 of 15, Pieczonka 5 of 15.
- Pereira's recent matches have been close, with many tiebreaks and 7-6 sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pieczonka's strong clay form suggests he can keep the match close, making +3.5 games a good value.
- Pieczonka's clay record in last 15 is 8-3 (72.7%), better than Pereira's 6-4 (60%).
- Pieczonka has won 54.6% of games on clay in last 15, Pereira 48.6%.
- Pieczonka's recent clay wins include opponents ranked 336 and 532.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFilip Pieczonka +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve often enough to push the total over 9.5 games.
- Pereira's average first set games in last 15: 9.9 (calculated from parsed sets).
- Pieczonka's average first set games in last 15: 9.3.
- Both players have had many first sets decided by 6-4 or 7-5 scores.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar first-set records, but Pereira's overall match edge slightly favors him to start strong.
- Pereira has won the first set in 7 of his last 15 matches (46.7%).
- Pieczonka has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%).
- Pereira's first set win conversion is 85% career, Pieczonka's is 89%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTiago PereiraEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of the matchup and both players' tendency to go the distance make a three-set match likely.
- Pereira has played 6 three-set matches in his last 15 (40%).
- Pieczonka has played 5 three-set matches in his last 15 (33%).
- Both players have similar overall win rates, suggesting a close match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pieczonka's high double fault count is likely to push the total over 8.5.
- Pieczonka averages 6.6 double faults per match in last 15, significantly higher than Pereira's 2.7.
- Combined average double faults per match: 9.3.
- Pieczonka's double fault rate is particularly high on clay (6.9 per match).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tendency to play close sets make a tiebreak likely.
- Pereira has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches (26.7% of matches).
- Pieczonka has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches (20% of matches).
- Both players have a career tiebreak win percentage around 48%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total around 8, making over 7.5 a reasonable bet.
- Pereira averages 4.0 aces per match in last 15, Pieczonka averages 3.9.
- Combined average aces per match: 7.9.
- Pieczonka's height (196 cm) and left-handed serve could produce more aces on clay.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Tiago Pereira

9W 6L

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#540Rudolf Molleker 4-6 6-3 7-6(4)#665Imanol Lopez Morillo

6-1 6-3#272Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 4-6 6-4#83Marco Trungelliti

6-4 5-7 6-0#432Pavel Lagutin

6-3 2-6 7-6(5)#618Thiago Cigarran

7-5 7-5#128Gustavo Heide

6-4 7-5#887Francisco Rocha

7-5 7-6(4)#893Niccolo Catini

3-6 6-4 6-4#697Tristan Mccormick

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#691Alberto Barroso Campos

7-5 6-1—Rodrigo Leal

6-3 6-1#259Max Basing

3-6 6-3 6-4#408Vadym Ursu

6-1 7-5#470Oleg Prihodko

Filip Pieczonka

9W 6L

6-3 6-2#532Nikita Mashtakov 7-5 6-3#336Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 3-6 6-4—Michael Savano

6-2 7-5#526Gerard Campana Lee

6-3 0-6 7-5#470Oleg Prihodko

6-3 6-4#813Alan Wazny

6-2 6-2#267Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#519Alexander Donski

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#214Felix Gill

7-6(7) 0-6 6-3#417Denis Yevseyev

6-3 6-4#625Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-2—Karim Ibrahim

6-3 6-2#340Thomas Faurel

6-4 3-6 6-3—Kyle Overmyer

6-2 6-4#560Milos Karol

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TPTiago PereiraPereira

Last 15

3–1

9 core stats · 5 even

Filip PieczonkaPieczonkaFP

Tiago Pereira carries the stronger recent form — Filip Pieczonka's route runs through return.

Serve · 2–0 · 3 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1554.2%—54.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.4%—70.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.9%+6.4pp45.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.0—3.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.73.9 fewer6.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.7%+3.8pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.6%—40.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1563.9%+4.3pp59.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.6%—49.6%

Serve · 2–0 · 3 even

54.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—54.5%

69.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—70.0%

51.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.4pp45.5%

4.0Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—3.9

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.9 fewer6.6

Return · 0–1

36.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.8pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

40.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—40.9%

63.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp59.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—49.6%