PortugalWTA Caldas Da RainhaFinished

Predictions graded

Matilde Jorge #261Portugal2Anastasia Gasanova #191Russia1

Sets 6-1 · 2-6 · 6-4Tue 15 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnastasia Gasanova · 70 places

Matilde Jorge

Portugal

Jorge, 22, is a Portuguese right-hander. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 212, reached in 2025.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: #212 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Anastasia Gasanova

Russia

Gasanova, 27, is a right-hander. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 121, reached in 2022.

Current ranking: #191
Peak ranking: #121 · 2022
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 172 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Matilde Jorge has the edge over Anastasia Gasanova based on recent H2H win and strong hard-court form.

Value lies in Jorge +1.5 games and over 21.5 total games, with high double-fault counts likely.

Context

Jorge, ranked 261, is the home player and has a 71.4% win rate on hard courts in her last 15 matches. Gasanova, ranked 191, has a 63.6% hard-court win rate in the same window.
The two players have split their two hard-court meetings this month. Jorge won the latest encounter in straight sets, but Gasanova's earlier 6-0 6-3 win shows she can dominate when her game is working. This makes the matchup less predictable than the rankings suggest.
- 2026-09-13: Jorge def. Gasanova 7-5 6-4
- 2026-09-03: Gasanova def. Jorge 6-0 6-3
Jorge has been playing almost exclusively on hard courts recently, with a 71.4% win rate in her last 14 matches on the surface. Gasanova has a 63.6% win rate in her last 11 hard-court matches.
Jorge's recent hard-court results are slightly better than Gasanova's, and she has won five straight matches at this tournament. However, Gasanova's overall record is still solid, and she has beaten higher-ranked opponents. The surface form gives Jorge a small edge, but it is not a decisive factor.
- Jorge last 15 on hard: 10-4 record, 71.4% win rate
- Gasanova last 15 on hard: 7-4 record, 63.6% win rate
- Jorge has won her last five matches at this tournament
Jorge's first-serve percentage is only 57.9% in her last 15 matches, and she averages 5.9 double faults per match. Gasanova's return points won is 49.5% in the same window.
Jorge's serving inconsistency could be a problem against Gasanova, who returns well. If Jorge continues to double fault at this rate, Gasanova will get more chances to break. However, Jorge has still managed to win matches despite this weakness, so she may be able to compensate with her groundstrokes.
- Jorge last 15: 5.9 double faults per match
- Jorge last 15: 57.9% first serve in
- Gasanova last 15: 49.5% return points won
The first-round match was listed as postponed or suspended on 15 September, so the exact start time and recovery window after both players' Évora final two days earlier remain unresolved.
- The match appeared in the 15 September order of play as a Round of 32 entry marked postponed/suspended.
- The official event page identifies the week as a WTA 125 hard-court event and lists Day 1 as the Round of 32.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 15:12 · Europe/BucharestCaldas da Rainha Ladies Open 2026 Order of Playen.tennistemple.com · 15 Sep 2026Caldas da Rainha Ladies Open — Order of Playwww.wtatennis.com · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Jorge's recent H2H win and strong hard-court form give her a slight edge, though Gasanova's overall quality keeps it close.
- Matilde Jorge won their most recent H2H on 2026-09-13, 7-5 6-4, on hard court.
- Jorge's last-15 hard-court record is 10-4 (71.4%) with 55.7% games won.
- Gasanova's last-15 hard-court record is 7-4 (63.6%) with 56.2% games won.
- Jorge has won 5 straight matches at this tournament, including two retirements from opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatilde JorgeEstimated chance55%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The recent H2H went over 21.5 games and both players have competitive hard-court profiles, suggesting a close match.
- Their last H2H had 22 games (7-5 6-4).
- Jorge's last-15 hard-court matches average 19.5 games per match.
- Gasanova's last-15 hard-court matches average 18.5 games per match.
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 55%.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jorge's recent H2H win and similar games-won percentages suggest she can cover a +1.5 game handicap.
- Jorge's last-15 hard-court games won percentage is 55.7%.
- Gasanova's last-15 hard-court games won percentage is 56.2%.
- Their last H2H was decided by 4 games (13-9).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMatilde Jorge +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The recent H2H first set went over 9.5 games and both players have competitive first-set stats.
- Their last H2H first set was 7-5 (12 games).
- Jorge's last-15 hard-court first-set average is 9.6 games.
- Gasanova's last-15 hard-court first-set average is 9.2 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The recent H2H second set went over 9.5 games and both players have competitive second-set stats.
- Their last H2H second set was 6-4 (10 games).
- Jorge's last-15 hard-court second-set average is 9.4 games.
- Gasanova's last-15 hard-court second-set average is 9.1 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jorge's recent H2H first-set win and stronger first-serve performance on hard courts support a slight first-set edge.
- Jorge won the first set in their last H2H 7-5.
- Jorge's first-set win conversion career is 82%, Gasanova's is 88%.
- Jorge's last-15 first-serve points won on hard is 69.1% vs Gasanova's 59.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatilde JorgeEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has a strong tiebreak record, and their recent H2H had no tiebreak, suggesting a tiebreak is less likely.
- Jorge's career tiebreak win percentage is 38%.
- Gasanova's career tiebreak win percentage is 54%.
- Their last H2H had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, making over 10.5 likely.
- Jorge averages 5.6 double faults per match on hard in last 15.
- Gasanova averages 6.4 double faults per match on hard in last 15.
- Combined average is 12.0 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W7-5 6-4Matilde Jorge#261vAnastasia Gasanova#191Sep 13, 2026

L6-0 6-3Matilde Jorge#261vAnastasia Gasanova#191Sep 3, 2026

2 total meetings

Matilde Jorge

10W 5L

7-5 6-4#191Anastasia Gasanova

6-1 1-6 6-3#375Sofia Johnson

4-0 ret.#187Katie Swan

2-6 6-4 3-2 ret.#209Greetje Minnen

6-3 6-4#360Margaux Rouvroy

6-0 6-3#191Anastasia Gasanova

6-0 6-1#467Valentina Ivanov

6-7(8) 6-4 6-2#382Sonja Zhiyenbayeva

7-6(5) 6-0#150Sofia Costoulas

6-2 7-5#616Isis Louise Van Den Broek

6-2 6-3—Maria Berlanga Bandera

6-1 7-6(4)#272Mina Hodzic

4-6 6-3 7-5#529Carmen Gallardo Guevara

7-5 2-6 6-3#792Chloe Noel

6-3 6-3#309Hina Inoue

Anastasia Gasanova

10W 5L

7-5 6-4#261Matilde Jorge

6-4 6-3#372Aoi Ito

6-2 6-1#219Francisca Jorge

6-1 6-0#843Iveta Dapkute

6-4 6-3#487Maria Martinez Vaquero

6-3 6-4#375Sofia Johnson

6-0 6-3#261Matilde Jorge

3-6 6-2 6-1#377Ariana Arseneault

6-4 6-1#205Madison Brengle

6-1 6-4#221Harmony Tan

7-6(3) 6-4#143Susan Bandecchi

6-3 6-2#17Naomi Osaka

6-3 6-1#139Emiliana Arango

6-4 6-2#120Darja Semenistaja

5-7 6-4 6-3#131Emerson Jones

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MJMatilde JorgeJorge

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Anastasia GasanovaGasanovaAG

Anastasia Gasanova carries the stronger recent form — Matilde Jorge's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.9%+5.8pp63.7%

1st Serve Won69.3%+8.9pp60.4%

2nd Serve Won43.8%+3.2pp47.0%

Aces / Match1.9+1.20.7

Double Faults / Match5.9—5.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.5%+5.0pp49.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.9%+7.8pp53.7%

Break Pts Saved61.9%+3.3pp58.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.5%+1.0pp52.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.9%1st Serve In+5.8pp63.7%

69.3%1st Serve Won+8.9pp60.4%

43.8%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp47.0%

1.9Aces / Match+1.20.7

5.9Double Faults / Match—5.8

Return · 0–1

44.5%Return Pts Won+5.0pp49.5%

Pressure · 1–1

45.9%Break Pts Converted+7.8pp53.7%

61.9%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp58.6%

Points · 0–1

51.5%Total Pts Won+1.0pp52.5%