United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Darwin Blanch #221United States2Stefan Kozlov #295United States1

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 7-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 22:45 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDarwin Blanch · 74 places

Darwin Blanch

United States

Left-handed player with limited reliable public profile information surfaced in the requested searches. Use structured recent-form data as the main current-performance context.

Current ranking: #221
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Stefan Kozlov

United States

The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 295, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #295
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 16:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Stefan Kozlov is the value play against Darwin Blanch, who has lost all seven hard-court matches in his last 15 and struggles with serve and return.

Kozlov won their only H2H and has better recent form, making him a strong underdog pick at 2.60 odds. The match is likely to be competitive, with Over 21.5 total games and a tiebreak both plausible.

Context

Blanch, 245th, is a left-hander who has struggled on hard courts recently, winning only 40.5% of games in his last seven matches on the surface.
His last five matches have all been straight-set losses, including defeats to players ranked outside the top 80. Kozlov has won two of his last seven hard-court matches and has a stronger return game, which could expose Blanch's low first-serve percentage of 51.4% on hard courts.
- Blanch's last 15 hard-court record is 0-7, with only 2 sets won in 17 played.
- His last five matches were all straight-set losses, including to Rinky Hijikata (ranked 85) and Lloyd Harris (ranked 139).
- Kozlov's hard-court record in his last 15 is 2-5, but he has won 48% of games compared to Blanch's 40.5%.
Kozlov, 297th, is a right-hander with a career return points won percentage of 42%, and his recent form shows he can pressure opponents' serves.
Blanch's first-serve percentage on hard courts is only 51.4%, and he has won just 49.8% of second-serve points overall. Kozlov's superior return could lead to more break opportunities, especially if Blanch's serve remains inconsistent.
- Kozlov's return points won in last 15: 42.8% (518/1211).
- Blanch's return points won in last 15: 32.7% (384/1176).
- Blanch's first-serve in on hard courts: 51.4% (268/521).
The two Americans met once before, with Kozlov winning 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3 in a Challenger event.
Kozlov's superior return stats in that match (42% return points won vs. Blanch's 31%) and higher break point conversion (40% vs. 14%) suggest he can handle Blanch's game. However, that match was on indoor hard, and this is outdoor hard, so the surface difference may reduce its relevance.
- H2H: Kozlov won 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3 on 2025-11-14.
- Kozlov's return points won in that match: 42% vs. Blanch's 31%.
- Kozlov's break point conversion: 40% vs. Blanch's 14%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Kozlov's superior recent form and H2H edge outweigh Blanch's ranking advantage, especially given Blanch's poor hard-court return numbers.
- Kozlov won the only H2H meeting 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3 on I.hard in Nov 2025.
- Blanch is 0-7 on hard courts in his last 15 matches, with a 26.9% return points won.
- Kozlov's last 15 overall record is 46.7% vs Blanch's 26.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStefan KozlovEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in competitive matches with multiple close sets, suggesting a higher total games count.
- Blanch's last 15 matches average 25.5 games per match.
- Kozlov's last 15 matches average 23.8 games per match.
- H2H match had 30 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' serve and return profiles.
- Blanch's recent hard-court sets often go to 10+ games.
- Kozlov's first sets in recent matches have averaged 9.8 games.
- H2H first set had 8 games, but both players have shown tiebreak tendencies.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second set is expected to be closely contested, with a chance of a tiebreak.
- Blanch's second sets on hard have averaged 10.1 games.
- Kozlov's second sets have averaged 9.6 games.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kozlov's stronger return game and Blanch's poor hard-court form make Kozlov slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Kozlov has a 87% career first-set win conversion rate.
- Blanch has lost his last 7 hard-court matches, often dropping the first set.
- Kozlov's return points won on hard is 39.9% vs Blanch's 26.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostStefan KozlovEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' tiebreak history suggest at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Blanch has played 5 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Kozlov has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- H2H match included a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making Over 6.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Blanch averages 4.2 double faults per match in last 15.
- Kozlov averages 2.9 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 7.1 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Blanch's poor hard-court form and return numbers make the favorite price a trap.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-7(7) 6-3Darwin Blanch#245vStefan Kozlov#297Nov 14, 2025

1 total meetings

Darwin Blanch

4W 11L

6-3 6-2 6-4#10Taylor Fritz

6-4 7-6(2)#85Rinky Hijikata

6-4 6-2#139Lloyd Harris

6-3 7-6(4)#96Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 6-4#94Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-4 5-7 6-4#152Mark Lajal

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#179Bernard Tomic

6-3 6-3#101Jacob Fearnley

5-7 6-3 6-3#399Garrett Johns

6-4 1-6 6-3#307Murphy Cassone

2-6 7-6(7) 4-0 ret.#123Dane Sweeny

7-6(1) 6-4#269Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-7(8) 6-4#154Zhizhen Zhang

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#101Jacob Fearnley

7-6(4) 1-6 6-3#120Henrique Rocha

Stefan Kozlov

7W 8L

2-6 6-4 6-1#196Harry Wendelken

6-3 5-7 6-2#362Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-1#80Zachary Svajda

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#519Alan Magadan

6-4 6-4#659Roger Pascual Ferra

4-6 6-1 6-2#700Leo Vithoontien

6-3 3-6 6-4#248Yi Zhou

3-6 6-3 6-2#101Jacob Fearnley

6-4 2-6 6-4#113Yibing Wu

6-4 6-2#399Garrett Johns

7-6(3) 5-7 6-3#362Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-4#395Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-2 6-1#899Mario Mansilla Diez

6-2 2-6 6-0#284Nick Hardt

6-2 6-3#156Daniil Glinka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DBDarwin BlanchBlanch

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Stefan KozlovKozlovSK

Stefan Kozlov carries the stronger recent form — Darwin Blanch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.7%+3.3pp59.0%

1st Serve Won71.3%+8.0pp63.3%

2nd Serve Won49.8%—49.8%

Aces / Match5.7+3.91.8

Double Faults / Match4.21.3 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.7%+10.1pp42.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted34.2%+9.7pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved58.5%+3.1pp55.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.4%+2.7pp50.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

55.7%1st Serve In+3.3pp59.0%

71.3%1st Serve Won+8.0pp63.3%

49.8%2nd Serve Won—49.8%

5.7Aces / Match+3.91.8

4.2Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

32.7%Return Pts Won+10.1pp42.8%

Pressure · 1–1

34.2%Break Pts Converted+9.7pp43.9%

58.5%Break Pts Saved+3.1pp55.4%

Points · 0–1

47.4%Total Pts Won+2.7pp50.1%