ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Pavel Lagutin #474Russia2Maximilian Marterer #746Germany0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Mon 14 Sept 2026, 10:20 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePavel Lagutin · 272 places

Pavel Lagutin

Russia

Lagutin, 21, is a right-hander. He holds a career-best ranking of No. 474; no verified preferred-surface designation is available.

Current ranking: #474
Peak ranking: #474
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Maximilian Marterer

Germany

Current ranking and playing style are taken from the supplied structured match data.

Current ranking: #746
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 22:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Lagutin's dominant recent form and superior return game on clay make him a strong favorite over Marterer.

Back Lagutin to win the match and cover the -3.5 game handicap, with value on the under 21.5 total games.

Context

Lagutin, 474th, has been dominant in recent weeks with a 13-2 record, including a 6-1 6-0 win in the previous round. Marterer, 746th, has been inconsistent, with losses to players ranked outside the top 400.
Lagutin's 86.7% win rate in the last 15 matches is backed by a 61.6% games won percentage and a 55.6% total points won. Marterer's 46.7% win rate and 48.9% games won show a clear gap. Lagutin's recent wins include a 6-1 6-0 victory over Rohrich, while Marterer lost to Benjamin Hassan (ranked 419) and Daniel Masur (ranked 378). This form difference suggests Lagutin is better prepared for this match.
- Lagutin last 15: 13-2 record, 86.7% win rate, 61.6% games won.
- Marterer last 15: 7-8 record, 46.7% win rate, 48.9% games won.
- Lagutin's recent wins include a 6-1 6-0 over Rohrich; Marterer lost to Hassan (419) and Masur (378).
Marterer, 746th, has struggled with fitness and consistency, retiring from a match on August 23 against Benjamin Hassan. He has also had mixed results, including a win over Federico Arnaboldi in the previous round.
The retirement against Hassan is a red flag for his physical condition. Although he won his last match 6-1 6-1, the retirement was less than a month ago and could indicate lingering issues. This uncertainty may affect his performance against a fitter Lagutin.
- Marterer retired on 2026-08-23 vs Benjamin Hassan at 4-1 in the third set.
- He won his last match 6-1 6-1 on 2026-09-13, but the retirement is recent.
Marterer, 30, is the left-hander in this matchup and reached No. 45 in 2018. He retired from Augsburg qualifying on 23 August while trailing 1-4 in the third set.
He then won his first Biella qualifying match 6-1, 6-1 on 13 September, which confirms he can compete. The retirement is recent enough to leave some doubt about his physical condition in a best-of-three match.
- The Augsburg qualifying match ended with Marterer retiring injured at 1-4 in the deciding set on 23 August 2026.
- Marterer played Federico Arnaboldi in Biella qualifying on 13 September 2026 and won 6-1, 6-1.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z against Benjamin Hassan ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 22:21 · Europe/BucharestSchwaben Open match reportschwabenopen.de · 23 Aug 2026Biella qualifying match pagewww.sofascore.com · 13 Sep 2026
Lagutin has been effective on clay recently, winning 6 of 7 matches with a 63.2% games won. Marterer has a longer clay history but has been less dominant recently, winning 7 of 13 matches.
Lagutin's clay numbers are better in the recent sample: 56% total points won and 51.3% return points won compared to Marterer's 50.6% and 36.4%. However, Marterer's career clay record is extensive, and he may draw on that experience. The surface should not be a major disadvantage for either player.
- Lagutin clay last 7: 6-1 record, 63.2% games won, 56% total points won.
- Marterer clay last 13: 7-6 record, 52.1% games won, 50.6% total points won.
- Marterer has 182 career clay wins; Lagutin has 23.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Lagutin's superior recent form and return game on clay give him a clear edge over Marterer.
- Lagutin last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), clay record 6-1 (85.7%)
- Marterer last 15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%), clay record 7-6 (53.8%)
- Lagutin return points won 48.5% overall, 51.3% on clay vs Marterer 35% overall, 36.4% on clay
- Lagutin ranking 474 vs Marterer 746
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPavel LagutinEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's dominant recent wins often finish in straight sets with low game totals, supporting the under.
- Lagutin average games per match 20.1 (302 games / 15 matches)
- Marterer average games per match 22.2 (333 games / 15 matches)
- Lagutin clay average games per match 21.7 (152 games / 7 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's superior game differential suggests he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Lagutin average games won per match 12.4 (186/15)
- Marterer average games won per match 10.9 (163/15)
- Lagutin clay average games won per match 13.7 (96/7)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPavel Lagutin -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players often produce lopsided first sets, but the low confidence reflects variability.
- Lagutin recent first sets: 6-1, 6-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6, 1-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2
- Marterer recent first sets: 6-1, 5-7, 6-7, 7-6, 2-6, 2-6, 4-6, 4-6, 3-6, 1-6, 1-6, 6-7, 6-4, 5-1, 6-3
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's strong first-set record and overall set dominance make him likely to take the opener.
- Lagutin first set win conversion 94% career
- Lagutin last 15 sets won 79.4%
- Marterer last 15 sets won 48.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPavel LagutinEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's consistent set dominance suggests he is likely to win the second set as well.
- Lagutin set win rate 79.4% overall
- Marterer set win rate 48.6% overall
- Lagutin clay set win rate 76.5%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPavel LagutinEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's tendency to win in straight sets and Marterer's inconsistency favor a two-set match.
- Lagutin straight-set wins in 10 of last 15 matches
- Marterer straight-set losses in 7 of last 15 matches
- Lagutin clay straight-set wins in 5 of 7 matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's dominance in sets reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Lagutin tiebreak win percentage 60% career
- Marterer tiebreak win percentage 52% career
- Lagutin recent matches often decided without tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, especially on clay, making the under likely.
- Lagutin aces per match 0.9 overall, 0.4 on clay
- Marterer aces per match 2.6 overall, 2.6 on clay
- Combined expected aces around 3.5 per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marterer's higher double fault rate pushes the combined total near the line.
- Lagutin double faults per match 1.7 overall, 1.0 on clay
- Marterer double faults per match 2.7 overall, 2.6 on clay
- Combined expected double faults around 4.4 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Pavel Lagutin

13W 2L

6-1 6-0—Matthieu Rohrich

6-7(3) 6-2 7-6(6)#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 3-6 6-0#121Vilius Gaubas

6-4 5-7 6-0#355Tiago Pereira

6-3 6-4#564Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-3 6-1#762Goncalo Marques

6-3 6-2—Rodrigo Fernandes

4-6 6-2 6-2#893Mathieu Scaglia

6-4 6-2—Tiago Silva

7-6(0) 7-6(3)#786Benjamin Pietri

6-1 6-2#276Philip Henning

6-2 3-1 ret.#708Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-4 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

6-2 7-5#555Carlos Lopez Montagud

6-2 6-1#426Eric Vanshelboim

Maximilian Marterer

7W 8L

6-1 6-1#521Federico Arnaboldi

7-5 6-7(5) 4-1 ret.#419Benjamin Hassan

7-6(7) 6-3#378Daniel Masur

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#490Louis Wessels

2-6 6-0 6-3—Aaron Funk

6-2 1-6 6-3—Lars Goran Verwerft

4-6 3-0 ret.#854Sidane Pontjodikromo

6-4 6-4#550Michael Bassem Sobhy

6-3 4-6 6-2#577Christoph Negritu

6-1 6-7(5) 6-1#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-1 6-1#286Pierre-Hugues Herbert

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 2-6 6-2#93Adam Walton

6-4 6-1#521Federico Arnaboldi

5-1#897Federico Coria

6-3 7-6(5)#195Edas Butvilas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PLPavel LagutinLagutin

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Maximilian MartererMartererMM

Pavel Lagutin carries the stronger recent form — Maximilian Marterer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1578.7%+12.6pp66.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.3%+2.4pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.6%+1.6pp51.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/150.9+1.72.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.71.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.5%+13.5pp35.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1551.9%+10.5pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1556.3%+9.0pp65.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1555.6%+6.4pp49.2%

Serve · 3–2

78.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+12.6pp66.1%

66.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.4pp68.7%

52.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp51.0%

0.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.72.6

1.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

48.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+13.5pp35.0%

Pressure · 1–1

51.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+10.5pp41.4%

56.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+9.0pp65.3%

Points · 1–0

55.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+6.4pp49.2%