FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Patrick Zahraj #413Germany0Maxime Janvier #566France2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Zahraj · 153 places

Patrick Zahraj

Germany

German player born 17 July 1999. Public ranking records place his singles career high at No. 240 in October 2025; no reliable preferred-surface profile was found.

Current ranking: #413
Peak ranking: #240 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Maxime Janvier

France

Janvier, 29, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high No. 170 in September 2019. The reviewed profile material does not identify a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #566
Peak ranking: #170 · 2019
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Zahraj has better recent form and a stronger return game, making him the likely winner, but the odds at 1.55 offer no value.

The match is expected to be close, with potential for over 21.5 total games and over 7.5 double faults. Consider Zahraj 2-1 in set betting if seeking higher odds.

Context

Zahraj, 25, is ranked 416 and has a 6-7 indoor hard record in 2026. Janvier, 29, is ranked 572 and has a 5-7 indoor hard record in 2026.
Zahraj's recent indoor hard results include wins over Joshua Sheehy and Mickael Kaouk, while Janvier's only indoor hard match in the last 15 was a straight-set win over Arthur Reymond. The sample is small, but Zahraj's 80% win rate on indoor hard in his last five matches suggests he is more comfortable on this surface right now.
- Zahraj's last 5 indoor hard matches: 4 wins, 1 loss (80% win rate).
- Janvier's last 15 matches include only 1 indoor hard match, a win over Arthur Reymond (ranked 710).
- Zahraj's 2026 indoor hard record is 6-7, while Janvier's is 5-7.
Zahraj's recent wins include victories over players ranked 742, 435, and 240. Janvier's wins include victories over players ranked 710, 824, and 736.
Zahraj's 60% win rate in his last 15 matches is better than Janvier's 46.7%, but the quality of opposition is similar. Both players have struggled against higher-ranked opponents, so this match may be decided by who handles the indoor conditions better.
- Zahraj's last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60% win rate).
- Janvier's last 15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7% win rate).
- Zahraj's last 5 matches: 4 wins, 1 loss. Janvier's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Patrick Zahraj

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Zahraj's stronger recent overall form and return numbers give him a modest edge, but the odds are slightly short of the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Zahraj has stronger recent form and a better return profile, giving him the edge on indoor hard.
- Zahraj last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Janvier 7-8 (46.7%)
- Zahraj I.hard last 15: 4-1 (80%), Janvier I.hard last 15: 1-0 (100% but only 1 match)
- Zahraj last 15 return points won 40.5%, Janvier 38.6%
- Zahraj ranking 416 vs Janvier 572
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick ZahrajEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive serve and return numbers suggest a close match with a higher total game count.
- Zahraj last 15 average duration 127.8 min, Janvier 120.2 min
- Zahraj last 15 games won 52.8%, Janvier 49.6%
- Both players have similar break point save rates (64.4% vs 61.2%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play tight opening sets, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Zahraj last 15 first set average games: 9.4 (from recent form)
- Janvier last 15 first set average games: 9.3
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zahraj's superior first-serve effectiveness and higher first-set conversion rate support taking the opening set.
- Zahraj first set win conversion career 86%, Janvier 81%
- Zahraj last 15 first serve points won 69.8%, Janvier 69.0%
- Zahraj I.hard last 15 first serve points won 71.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPatrick ZahrajEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Janvier's higher ace rate and indoor conditions could push total aces over the line.
- Zahraj last 15 aces per match 2.9, Janvier 4.3
- Janvier I.hard last 15 aces per match 8.0 (1 match)
- Combined average aces per match 7.2
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 4 double faults per match, making over 7.5 likely.
- Zahraj last 15 double faults per match 4.3, Janvier 4.3
- Combined average double faults per match 8.6
- Both players have similar second serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Patrick Zahraj

9W 6L

7-5 6-3#742Joshua Sheehy

7-5 6-3#534Samir Banerjee

6-2 6-4—Mickael Kaouk

6-3 5-7 6-0—Sven Corbinais

6-2 6-1—Matisse Martin

6-3 6-2#716Patrick Brady

7-6(4) 6-1#410Mika Brunold

3-6 6-4 2-0 ret.—Andrin Casanova

7-5 4-6 7-6(5)#726Vincent Marysko

7-5 6-4#338Raphael Perot

5-7 6-4 6-4#338Raphael Perot

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#435Yannik Kelm

3-6 6-3 6-4#240Max Houkes

6-4 6-3#641Tomasz Berkieta

7-6(6) 1-6 6-4#1731Justin Schlageter

Maxime Janvier

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#710Arthur Reymond

2-6 6-3 7-5#595Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-1 3-6 7-5#824Oskari Paldanius

5-1 ret.#712Thomas Fancutt

6-4 4-6 6-2#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-2 6-3#708Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-4 3-6 7-5#728Daniele Rapagnetta

6-3 5-7 6-3#714Michael Vrbensky

4-6 6-4 6-2#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-0 6-1#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

7-5 7-6(4)#736Oskar Brostrom Poulsen

6-3 6-3—Giammarco Gandolfi

4-6 6-4 6-3#185Clement Chidekh

4-6 6-2 7-6(4)#275Ilia Simakin

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#714Michael Vrbensky

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PZPatrick ZahrajZahraj

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Maxime JanvierJanvierMJ

Patrick Zahraj carries the stronger recent form — Maxime Janvier's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.3%+2.5pp62.8%

1st Serve Won69.8%+0.8pp69.0%

2nd Serve Won46.1%+3.0pp49.1%

Aces / Match2.9+1.44.3

Double Faults / Match4.3—4.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.5%+1.9pp38.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.0%+6.9pp39.1%

Break Pts Saved64.4%+3.2pp61.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.0%+0.9pp50.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

65.3%1st Serve In+2.5pp62.8%

69.8%1st Serve Won+0.8pp69.0%

46.1%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp49.1%

2.9Aces / Match+1.44.3

4.3Double Faults / Match—4.3

Return · 1–0

40.5%Return Pts Won+1.9pp38.6%

Pressure · 2–0

46.0%Break Pts Converted+6.9pp39.1%

64.4%Break Pts Saved+3.2pp61.2%

Points · 1–0

51.0%Total Pts Won+0.9pp50.1%