FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Max Schoenhaus #312Germany2Patrick Brady #812United Kingdom1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 6-1Mon 14 Sept 2026, 09:10 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Schoenhaus · 500 places

Max Schoenhaus

Germany

A 19-year-old German right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His current No. 312 ranking is close to his published career high of No. 310; no reliable explicit preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #312
Peak ranking: #310
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Patrick Brady

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 14 November 2004. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 728 in February 2024; no reliable preferred-surface or current injury trajectory source was found.

Current ranking: #812
Peak ranking: #728 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Brady's superior recent form, serve, and return game make him a strong favorite on indoor hard.

Back Brady to win at 2.20 for value, and consider over 7.5 total aces given Schoenhaus's ace rate.

Context

Brady, ranked 716, has been playing mostly hard-court Challenger and ITF events in 2026, with a 12-6 record on hard courts this year.
Brady's 73.3% win rate in his last 15 matches is well above Schoenhaus's 46.7%. Brady has also won 74.2% of sets in that span, while Schoenhaus has won only 47.1%. This suggests Brady enters with more consistent recent results, though his wins have often come against opponents ranked outside the top 400.
- Brady's last 15 record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Schoenhaus's last 15 record: 7-8 (46.7% win rate).
- Brady's recent wins include 6-1 6-2 over Toufik Sahtali (rank 553) and 6-1 6-0 over Jesse Delaney (rank 898).
Schoenhaus, ranked 318, has a 22-15 clay record in 2026 but only 4-2 on indoor hard this year.
Schoenhaus's recent form is built on clay, where he has a 46.2% win rate in his last 13 matches. On indoor hard, he has only one recent match, a 7-6(12) 6-4 win over Adhithya Ganesan (rank 750). The surface switch could reduce the relevance of his recent clay results, though his career indoor hard record is positive.
- Schoenhaus's last 15 matches by surface: 13 clay, 1 grass, 1 indoor hard.
- His only recent indoor hard match was a win over Adhithya Ganesan (rank 750) on 2026-09-13.
- Schoenhaus's 2026 indoor hard record is 4-2.
Brady's first-serve percentage is 73.7% in his last 15 matches, compared to Schoenhaus's 58.7%.
Brady's higher first-serve percentage and first-serve points won give him a more reliable service game. His break point conversion rate of 52.4% is significantly better than Schoenhaus's 33.3%, which could be decisive in a close match. However, Brady's break point save rate is lower (47.8% vs 59.5%), so Schoenhaus may still get chances.
- Brady first-serve points won: 72.3% vs Schoenhaus 70.5%.
- Brady return points won: 39.9% vs Schoenhaus 38.1%.
- Brady break points converted: 52.4% vs Schoenhaus 33.3%.
- Brady break points saved: 47.8% vs Schoenhaus 59.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Brady's superior recent form and serve/return structure give him a clear edge on indoor hard.
- Brady last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Schoenhaus 7-8 (46.7%)
- Brady last15 games won 58.3% vs Schoenhaus 50.3%
- Brady first serve in 73.7% vs Schoenhaus 58.7%
- Brady break point conversion 52.4% vs Schoenhaus 33.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick BradyEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline rallies and Schoenhaus's ability to extend sets suggest a longer match.
- Schoenhaus last15 average 21.6 games per match
- Brady last15 average 19.3 games per match
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (49.9% vs 53.7%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close first sets are likely given both players' competitive recent matches.
- Schoenhaus last15 first set average 9.7 games
- Brady last15 first set average 9.1 games
- Both players have tiebreak win rates above 55%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brady's stronger first-set record and serve advantage make him likely to take the opener.
- Brady first set win conversion career 84% vs Schoenhaus 76%
- Brady last15 first serve points won 72.3% vs Schoenhaus 70.5%
- Brady last15 return points won 39.9% vs Schoenhaus 38.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPatrick BradyEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making under 4.5 likely.
- Schoenhaus last15 double faults per match 2.5
- Brady last15 double faults per match 1.3
- Combined average 3.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoenhaus's ace rate and indoor hard conditions should push total aces over the line.
- Schoenhaus last15 aces per match 4.9
- Brady last15 aces per match 2.7
- Combined average 7.6 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players are capable in tiebreaks and recent form suggests a close set is possible.
- Schoenhaus tiebreak win rate 58% career
- Brady tiebreak win rate 55% career
- Schoenhaus recent match went to tiebreak (7-6(12) vs Ganesan)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Max Schoenhaus

7W 8L

7-6(12) 6-4#750Adhithya Ganesan

2-6 7-6(1) 6-3#254Matej Dodig

6-1 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1#285Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-7(0) 6-4 6-4#378Daniel Masur

6-4 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-1 6-3#260Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

1-6 6-0 ret.#118Zsombor Piros

5-7 6-3 7-6(3)#341Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-4 6-1#240Max Houkes

7-5 6-1#749Andres Santamarta Roig

7-5 6-4#206Laslo Djere

6-3 6-3#59Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 6-4#15Learner Tien

Patrick Brady

11W 4L

6-1 6-2#553Toufik Sahtali

6-4 6-1#237Charles Broom

6-3 6-2#416Patrick Zahraj

6-1 6-3#678Andreja Petrovic

7-5 6-2#457Alafia Ayeni

6-4 4-6 7-5#360Lui Maxted

6-4 7-6(4)#542Alec Deckers

6-1 6-4#457Alafia Ayeni

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-4#449Emile Hudd

7-6(5) 6-4#816Toby Martin

6-3 6-2#965Alexis Canter

6-1 6-1#287Alastair Gray

6-3 7-5#719Herman Hoeyeraal

7-6(4) 6-3#683Ryan Seggerman

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMax SchoenhausSchoenhaus

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Patrick BradyBradyPB

Patrick Brady carries the stronger recent form — Max Schoenhaus's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In58.7%+15.0pp73.7%

1st Serve Won70.5%+1.8pp72.3%

2nd Serve Won52.1%+3.9pp56.0%

Aces / Match4.9+2.22.7

Double Faults / Match2.51.2 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.1%+1.8pp39.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.3%+19.1pp52.4%

Break Pts Saved59.5%+11.7pp47.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+3.8pp53.7%

Serve · 1–4

58.7%1st Serve In+15.0pp73.7%

70.5%1st Serve Won+1.8pp72.3%

52.1%2nd Serve Won+3.9pp56.0%

4.9Aces / Match+2.22.7

2.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

38.1%Return Pts Won+1.8pp39.9%

Pressure · 1–1

33.3%Break Pts Converted+19.1pp52.4%

59.5%Break Pts Saved+11.7pp47.8%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+3.8pp53.7%