PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Filip Pieczonka #900Poland2Nikita Mashtakov #654Ukraine0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Mon 14 Sept 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNikita Mashtakov · 246 places

Filip Pieczonka

Poland

Pieczonka, 22, is the left-hander in this matchup. His documented singles career-high ranking is No. 739, reached in June 2025.

Current ranking: #900
Peak ranking: #739 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Nikita Mashtakov

Ukraine

Current ranking No. 654 is supplied by structured match data. Reliable public age, career-high and surface-preference information was not surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #654
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Mashtakov's superior clay form and return game give him the edge over Pieczonka, but Pieczonka's strong clay record and serve keep it competitive.

Best betting angles: Mashtakov to win, over 21.5 total games, and over 9.5 total double faults.

Context

Mashtakov, ranked 576, is a clay-court specialist with 182 career wins on the surface. Pieczonka, ranked 900, is a left-hander with a 44-19 career clay record but less consistent recent results.
Mashtakov's 80% win rate in the last 15 matches, all on clay, gives him a clear edge in current form. Pieczonka's 70% clay win rate in the same window is solid but includes a loss to a lower-ranked opponent in his most recent clay match. The surface suits both, but Mashtakov's consistency and higher ranking make him the more reliable performer here.
- Mashtakov last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), all matches on clay.
- Pieczonka last 15 clay record: 7-3 (70%), but lost his most recent clay match to Michael Savano.
- Mashtakov's last 15 return points won: 45.1% vs Pieczonka's 39.3% overall.
Pieczonka's first-serve percentage is 55.1% in his last 15 matches, and he averages 6.6 double faults per match. Mashtakov wins 45.1% of return points, well above the tour average.
Pieczonka's serving inconsistency is a specific weakness that Mashtakov is well-equipped to exploit. If Pieczonka cannot improve his first-serve percentage, Mashtakov should see frequent break-point chances. However, Pieczonka's first-serve points won is 69.8%, so when he does land the first serve, he is effective.
- Pieczonka last 15 first serve in: 55.1%.
- Pieczonka last 15 double faults per match: 6.6.
- Mashtakov last 15 return points won: 45.1%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Mashtakov's superior recent clay form and return game give him the edge, though Pieczonka's strong clay record keeps it competitive.
- Mashtakov last 15 on clay: 12-3 record, 64.9% sets won, 54.4% games won
- Pieczonka last 15 on clay: 7-3 record, 66.7% sets won, 53.4% games won
- Mashtakov return points won 45.1% vs Pieczonka 42.8% on clay
- Mashtakov ranking 576 vs Pieczonka 900
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNikita MashtakovEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches tend to be competitive with high game totals, supporting over 21.5 games.
- Pieczonka clay matches average 23.2 games per match
- Mashtakov clay matches average 25.0 games per match
- Both players have high double fault rates, extending games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average around 10 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable lean.
- Pieczonka first set average 9.8 games on clay
- Mashtakov first set average 10.1 games on clay
- Both players have similar first set game counts
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mashtakov's recent first-set consistency and higher first-set win conversion support a slight edge in set 1.
- Mashtakov won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
- Pieczonka won first set in 7 of last 10 clay matches
- Mashtakov first set win conversion 83% career
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNikita MashtakovEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pieczonka's higher ace rate and potential for longer match could push total aces over 6.5.
- Pieczonka averages 2.9 aces per match on clay
- Mashtakov averages 1.6 aces per match on clay
- Combined average 4.5 aces, but Pieczonka's serve can produce more
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pieczonka's high double fault rate alone nearly covers the line, making over 9.5 likely.
- Pieczonka averages 7.2 double faults per match on clay
- Mashtakov averages 3.2 double faults per match on clay
- Combined average 10.4 double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Filip Pieczonka

8W 7L

7-5 6-3#347Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 3-6 6-4—Michael Savano

6-2 7-5#541Gerard Campana Lee

6-3 0-6 7-5#411Oleg Prihodko

6-3 6-4#827Alan Wazny

6-2 6-2#267Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#523Alexander Donski

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#214Felix Gill

7-6(7) 0-6 6-3#444Denis Yevseyev

6-3 6-4#572Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-2—Karim Ibrahim

6-3 6-2#351Thomas Faurel

6-4 3-6 6-3—Kyle Overmyer

6-2 6-4#526Milos Karol

7-6(5) 7-5#258Maks Kasnikowski

Nikita Mashtakov

12W 3L

7-5 6-1#564Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-2 6-4#289Juan Manuel La Serna

7-5 7-6(3)#630Stefan Popovic

6-4 6-4#838Jannik Opitz

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-1—Valentin Basel

7-5 6-4#302Daniel Michalski

6-0 6-7(3) 6-1#436Vladyslav Orlov

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-2#574Kirill Kivattsev

6-3 6-3#829Tom Zeuch

2-6 6-3 6-4—Thilo Behrmann

1-6 6-4 7-5#531Marcel Zielinski

7-6(5) 4-6 6-0—Alexander Wagner

7-6(5) 6-3—Kabeer Kapasi

6-4 5-7 7-6(6)—Leyton Rivera

6-2 6-4#346Oriol Roca Batalla

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FPFilip PieczonkaPieczonka

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Nikita MashtakovMashtakovNM

Nikita Mashtakov carries the stronger recent form — Filip Pieczonka's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1555.1%+8.3pp63.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1569.8%+7.3pp62.5%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1544.8%+6.1pp50.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.1+2.51.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/156.63.4 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1539.3%+5.8pp45.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1539.3%+1.3pp40.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1559.7%+3.2pp62.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.9%+2.7pp51.6%

Serve · 2–3

55.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+8.3pp63.4%

69.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+7.3pp62.5%

44.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.1pp50.9%

4.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.51.6

6.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.4 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

39.3%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.8pp45.1%

Pressure · 0–2

39.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+1.3pp40.6%

59.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp62.9%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.7pp51.6%