PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Tiago Pereira #352Portugal2Imanol Lopez Morillo #590Spain1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 7-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 08:40 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–271%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTiago Pereira · 238 places

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

Reached a career-best No. 185 in July 2025. Current ATP singles ranking is No. 352.

Current ranking: #352
Peak ranking: #185 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Imanol Lopez Morillo

Spain

Reached a singles career-high ranking of No. 470 in February 2024. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #590
Peak ranking: #470 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Tiago Pereira is overpriced as a heavy favorite despite only a modest edge in form and inferior serve metrics.

Imanol Lopez Morillo's stronger serve and return game make him a live underdog, and the match is likely to be competitive. Best angles include over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets, while avoiding Pereira at 1.36.

Context

Pereira, ranked 355, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has played most of his recent matches on clay.
His 6-4 clay record in the last 15 matches includes wins over opponents ranked 83, 658, 811, 809, 827, and 411, but losses to players ranked 223, 474, 128, 893, and 709. That pattern suggests he can beat lower-ranked players but struggles against stronger opposition, which is relevant against Lopez Morillo, who is ranked 590 but has a solid clay background.
- Pereira's last 15 clay matches: 6 wins, 4 losses.
- Wins came against opponents ranked 83, 658, 811, 809, 827, and 411.
- Losses came against opponents ranked 223, 474, 128, 893, and 709.
Lopez Morillo, ranked 590, is a clay-court specialist with a career win percentage of 58.5% and a strong return game.
His return points won percentage of 43.5% on clay is significantly higher than Pereira's 38.2%, and he also converts break points at a higher rate (45.8% vs 40.6%). This suggests Lopez Morillo may create more break opportunities, but Pereira's higher first-serve points won (69.7% vs 64.6%) could offset that advantage.
- Lopez Morillo's clay return points won: 43.5% (446/1026).
- Pereira's clay return points won: 38.2% (283/741).
- Lopez Morillo's clay break point conversion: 45.8% (54/118).
- Pereira's clay break point conversion: 40.6% (28/69).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Tiago Pereira

1.36fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Pereira's recent record and ranking suggest a modest edge, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Pereira has a slightly better recent record and higher ranking, giving him a modest edge in a close matchup.
- Tiago Pereira last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Imanol Lopez Morillo 8-7 (53.3%)
- Pereira last 15 clay record 6-4 (60%), Lopez Morillo 8-7 (53.3%)
- Pereira ranking 355 vs Lopez Morillo 590
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTiago PereiraEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with high game totals, suggesting a longer match.
- Pereira last 15 average duration 116.9 minutes, Lopez Morillo 128.7 minutes
- Pereira last 15 games won 51.1%, Lopez Morillo 53.2%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play close first sets, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Pereira last 15 first set average games: 9.4
- Lopez Morillo last 15 first set average games: 9.6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also been competitive for both players, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Pereira last 15 second set average games: 9.8
- Lopez Morillo last 15 second set average games: 9.7
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a tendency to go to three sets, making over 2.5 sets a reasonable bet.
- Pereira last 15 sets won 55.6%, Lopez Morillo 50%
- Pereira has 5 three-set matches in last 15, Lopez Morillo has 4
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pereira's stronger first serve in recent matches may give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Pereira first set win conversion 85% career, Lopez Morillo 91%
- Pereira last 15 first serve points won 70.9%, Lopez Morillo 64.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTiago PereiraEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, making under 4.5 likely.
- Pereira last 15 double faults per match 2.6, Lopez Morillo 1.3
- Combined average double faults per match 3.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are close to the line, with Pereira's higher ace count pushing the total over.
- Pereira last 15 aces per match 3.3, Lopez Morillo 1.6
- Combined average aces per match 4.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Close sets and similar levels suggest a tiebreak is plausible.
- Pereira tiebreak win percentage 46%, Lopez Morillo 52%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pereira is overpriced as a heavy favorite despite only a modest edge in recent form and inferior serve metrics.

Tiago Pereira

9W 6L

6-1 6-3#223Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 4-6 6-4#83Marco Trungelliti

6-4 5-7 6-0#474Pavel Lagutin

6-3 2-6 7-6(5)#658Thiago Cigarran

7-5 7-5#128Gustavo Heide

6-4 7-5#811Francisco Rocha

7-5 7-6(4)#893Niccolo Catini

3-6 6-4 6-4#709Tristan Mccormick

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#635Alberto Barroso Campos

7-5 6-1—Rodrigo Leal

6-3 6-1#259Max Basing

3-6 6-3 6-4#407Vadym Ursu

6-1 7-5#411Oleg Prihodko

6-4 6-1#809Niklas Guttau

6-2 6-4#827Alan Wazny

Imanol Lopez Morillo

8W 7L

6-3 7-5#538Pedro Vives Marcos

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#709Tristan Mccormick

7-6(3) 6-3#347Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-4 3-6 6-1#746Carles Hernandez

6-3 6-3—Nathan Walters

7-5 6-3—Oliver Majdandzic

7-6(5) 3-6 6-2#411Oleg Prihodko

6-2 2-6 7-5#854Pawel Juszczak

6-1 6-1—Jakub Januchowski

6-1 7-6(5)#240Max Houkes

3-6 6-1 6-3#673Tim Handel

6-3 7-6(5)—Linus Lagerbohm

6-2 6-1—Lorenzo Balducci

7-5 6-2—Marcel Kamrowski

6-3 6-2—Daniel Tazabekov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TPTiago PereiraPereira

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Imanol Lopez MorilloMorilloIM

Imanol Lopez Morillo carries the stronger recent form — Tiago Pereira's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1552.4%+12.7pp65.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.9%+6.3pp64.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.6%+1.6pp54.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.3+1.71.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.61.3 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.1%+5.4pp43.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.0%+5.8pp45.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1564.7%+7.2pp57.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.2%+1.6pp51.8%

Serve · 2–3

52.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+12.7pp65.1%

70.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.3pp64.6%

52.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp54.2%

3.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.71.6

2.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.3 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

38.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.4pp43.5%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.8pp45.8%

64.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+7.2pp57.5%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp51.8%