United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Quinn Vandecasteele #471United States2Noah Zamora #772United States0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Sun 13 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageQuinn Vandecasteele · 301 places

Quinn Vandecasteele

United States

The American reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 449 in April 2026. He played college tennis at Oregon.

Current ranking: #471
Peak ranking: #449 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Noah Zamora

United States

Zamora, 23, is listed as a right-hander. His career-high ranking of No. 762 was reached in August 2026, and the available 2026 match record is primarily on hard courts.

Current ranking: #772
Peak ranking: #762 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Zamora's better recent form and serve reliability give him a moderate edge over Vandecasteele.

The moneyline on Zamora at 2.90 offers strong value, and the total games over 21.5 is a solid play. Expect a competitive match with potential for three sets.

Context

Zamora, ranked 772, has built a 25-15 hard-court record in 2026 and is the lower-ranked player in this matchup.
Zamora's recent results include wins over James McCabe and several lower-ranked opponents, while Vandecasteele has lost to players like James Duckworth and Tristan Schoolkate. However, Vandecasteele's losses have often come against higher-ranked opposition, and his overall points-won percentage is nearly identical to Zamora's, so the gap may be narrower than the win-loss record suggests.
- Zamora's last 15 hard-court record is 9-6 (60%), with 52.8% of sets won.
- Vandecasteele's last 15 hard-court record is 6-7 (46.2%), with 51.6% of sets won.
- Zamora's total points won on hard courts is 51.5%, compared to Vandecasteele's 50.7%.
Vandecasteele, ranked 438, is a 191 cm right-hander with a career first-serve percentage of 55%.
Vandecasteele's higher ace count suggests he can win free points, but his double-fault rate is more than double Zamora's, which could hand away cheap points in a tight qualifying match. Zamora's cleaner serving may give him more consistent holds, though his lower ace count means he relies more on rallying.
- Vandecasteele: 4.9 aces per match and 4.2 double faults per match on hard courts in last 15.
- Zamora: 3.3 aces per match and 1.8 double faults per match on hard courts in last 15.
- Vandecasteele's first-serve points won is 68.5%, slightly below Zamora's 70.2%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Zamora's stronger recent form and more reliable serve metrics on hard courts give him a moderate edge over Vandecasteele.
- Last 15 overall record: Zamora 9-6 (60%) vs Vandecasteele 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Zamora 9-6 (60%) vs Vandecasteele 6-7 (46.2%)
- Zamora second-serve points won 56% vs Vandecasteele 49.6% in last 15
- Zamora double faults per match 1.8 vs Vandecasteele 4.2 in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNoah ZamoraEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline stats and frequent three-set matches suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Vandecasteele last 15 average match duration 106.8 minutes, Zamora 119.2 minutes
- Vandecasteele last 15 games won 51.9%, Zamora 52.3%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving numbers from both players increase the likelihood of a closely contested first set with at least 10 games.
- Vandecasteele last 15 first-serve points won 68.7%, Zamora 70.2%
- Both players hold serve at above-average rates on hard courts
- Recent matches show tight opening sets with tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Solid second-serve and break-point saving numbers suggest the second set could also be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Vandecasteele second-serve points won 49.6%, Zamora 56% in last 15
- Both players have break point save rates above 60% in last 15
- Recent hard-court matches show extended second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zamora's slight edge in key serve metrics supports a narrow game handicap advantage.
- Zamora last 15 games won 52.3% vs Vandecasteele 51.9%
- Zamora second-serve points won 56% vs Vandecasteele 49.6%
- Zamora double faults per match 1.8 vs Vandecasteele 4.2
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNoah Zamora -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of recent set-level performance and three-set history supports a match going the distance.
- Vandecasteele last 15 sets won 51.4%, Zamora 52.8%
- Zamora deciding set win percentage career 61%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in last 15
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zamora's slightly better serve protection and first-set conversion rate support a modest edge in the opening set.
- Zamora first-set win conversion career 85% vs Vandecasteele 83%
- Zamora last 15 first-serve points won 70.2% vs Vandecasteele 68.7%
- Zamora break points saved 67.7% vs Vandecasteele 62.1% in last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNoah ZamoraEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages from both players exceed the 8.5 line, making the over a reasonable play.
- Vandecasteele last 15 aces per match 5.7, Zamora 3.3
- Combined average aces per match 9.0 in last 15
- Hard court surface favors serving
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive serving and return numbers increase the chance of at least one tiebreak in the match.
- Vandecasteele career tiebreak win percentage 53%, Zamora 58%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
- Close serve metrics suggest tight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vandecasteele's elevated double fault count pushes the combined total above the 5.5 line.
- Vandecasteele last 15 double faults per match 4.2, Zamora 1.8
- Combined average double faults per match 6.0 in last 15
- Vandecasteele's high double fault rate drives the total
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Quinn Vandecasteele

7W 8L

6-2 6-1#71James Duckworth

3-6 7-6(4) 7-5#286Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-3 6-2#535Li Tu

2-6 6-2 6-4#180Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-3#251Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 6-2#887Ajeet Rai

6-3 6-1#1427Patricio Alvarado

2-6 6-4 6-4#863Maxwell Exsted

6-2 0-6 6-3#322Daniel Milavsky

6-1 6-4#511Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-3 7-6(8)#731Sebastian Gorzny

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#697Keshav Chopra

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 6-3#464James Kent Trotter

1-6 6-3 6-3#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 6-3#398Masamichi Imamura

Noah Zamora

9W 6L

6-2 4-6 6-0#769Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

4-6 6-3 7-6(2)#246James McCabe

7-6(5) 6-4#627Bruno Kuzuhara

6-2 6-0#870Emon Van Loben Sels

6-1 7-5#766Darian King

7-6(2) 7-5#451Spencer Johnson

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#870Emon Van Loben Sels

7-5 2-6 6-4—Noah Johnston

4-6 6-3 7-5#900Rudy Quan

6-4 5-7 6-4—Benjamin O'Connell

6-3 6-4#872Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-1—Matic Kriznik

6-2 3-0 ret.—Benjamin O'Connell

6-3 6-0—Noah Johnston

7-6(3) 6-4—Jack Satterfield

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

QVQuinn VandecasteeleVandecasteele

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Noah ZamoraZamoraNZ

Noah Zamora carries the stronger recent form — Quinn Vandecasteele's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In54.0%+4.2pp58.2%

1st Serve Won68.7%+1.5pp70.2%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+6.4pp56.0%

Aces / Match5.7+2.43.3

Double Faults / Match4.22.4 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.6%+1.5pp39.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.4%+10.2pp36.2%

Break Pts Saved62.1%+5.6pp67.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.7%+0.8pp51.5%

Serve · 1–4

54.0%1st Serve In+4.2pp58.2%

68.7%1st Serve Won+1.5pp70.2%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+6.4pp56.0%

5.7Aces / Match+2.43.3

4.2Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

40.6%Return Pts Won+1.5pp39.1%

Pressure · 1–1

46.4%Break Pts Converted+10.2pp36.2%

62.1%Break Pts Saved+5.6pp67.7%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won+0.8pp51.5%