FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Patrick Brady #812United Kingdom2Toufik Sahtali #5530

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 10:20 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions2–340%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageToufik Sahtali · 259 places

Patrick Brady

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 14 November 2004. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 728 in February 2024; no reliable preferred-surface or current injury trajectory source was found.

Current ranking: #812
Peak ranking: #728 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Toufik Sahtali

Algerian player born 7 January 1999. His peak singles ranking is No. 533, reached in June 2026; the ITF profile lists grass as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: #533 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Ambidextrous
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Patrick Brady's superior recent form and serve hold profile make him the likely winner over Toufik Sahtali, but the odds at 1.29 offer no value.

Sahtali's high double-fault rate supports over 5.5 double faults, while the total games and tiebreak markets are too uncertain to bet.

Context

Brady, ranked 716, has been playing mostly Challenger and ITF events in 2026 and holds a 12-6 hard-court record this year.
Brady's 72.7% win rate on hard courts in his last 11 matches is better than Sahtali's 53.3% over 15 matches. However, Sahtali's sample includes tougher opponents and a retirement, so the gap may be smaller than it looks.
- Brady's last 15 hard-court record: 8-3 (72.7% win rate).
- Sahtali's last 15 hard-court record: 8-7 (53.3% win rate).
- Brady's recent wins include opponents ranked 416, 678, and 457; Sahtali's wins include several unranked players.
Sahtali, ranked 553, has played a heavy schedule of ITF and Challenger events in 2026, with 43 hard-court wins this year.
His retirement against Nicolas Jadoun on August 29 came after only three games, and he also retired on July 8. He has played two matches since then, losing both, so his fitness and form are unclear entering this match.
- Sahtali retired at 0-3 against Nicolas Jadoun on August 29, 2026.
- Sahtali also retired at 3-6 0-4 against Nicolas Robert on July 8, 2026.
- Since the August 29 retirement, Sahtali lost to Valentin Lapalu and Matthew Carroll.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Patrick Brady

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Brady's stronger recent form and superior serve hold profile outweigh Sahtali's return edge, making him the likely winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Brady's stronger recent form and superior serve hold profile outweigh Sahtali's return edge, making him the likely winner.
- Patrick Brady last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Toufik Sahtali 8-7 (53.3%)
- Brady last 15 hard-court record 8-3 (72.7%), Sahtali 8-7 (53.3%)
- Brady first serve points won 72.5% vs Sahtali 65.9%
- Brady return points won 39.9% vs Sahtali 44.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPatrick BradyEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive matchup with Sahtali's return ability suggests a longer match, but low confidence due to limited data.
- Brady last 15 average 19.3 games per match, Sahtali 19.6
- Sahtali last 15 average duration 111.3 minutes
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' serve and return profiles point to a competitive first set, but low confidence.
- Brady last 15 average 9.7 games per set, Sahtali 9.8
- Sahtali return points won 44.7% suggests close sets
- Brady first serve points won 72.5% limits breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brady's strong serving and break conversion should give him the edge in the opening set.
- Brady first set win conversion 84% career, Sahtali 84%
- Brady last 15 first serve points won 72.5%
- Brady last 15 break points converted 49.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPatrick BradyEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sahtali's high double fault rate drives the combined total over the line.
- Sahtali last 15 double faults per match 4.6
- Brady last 15 double faults per match 1.3
- Combined average 5.9 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are near the line, making over 5.5 a marginal lean.
- Brady last 15 aces per match 2.8, Sahtali 2.3
- Combined average 5.1 aces per match
- Indoor hard court may slightly favor serving
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Patrick Brady

11W 4L

6-4 6-1#237Charles Broom

6-3 6-2#416Patrick Zahraj

6-1 6-3#678Andreja Petrovic

7-5 6-2#457Alafia Ayeni

6-4 4-6 7-5#360Lui Maxted

6-4 7-6(4)#542Alec Deckers

6-1 6-4#457Alafia Ayeni

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-4#449Emile Hudd

7-6(5) 6-4#816Toby Martin

6-3 6-2#965Alexis Canter

6-1 6-1#287Alastair Gray

6-3 7-5#719Herman Hoeyeraal

7-6(4) 6-3#683Ryan Seggerman

6-2 6-1—James Mackinlay

Toufik Sahtali

8W 7L

6-4 7-6(2)—Matthew Carroll

4-6 6-1 6-2—Valentin Lapalu

3-0 ret.#883Nicolas Jadoun

2-6 6-3 6-2—Louis Larue

6-2 6-3—Nav Dayal

6-2 6-2—Thando Longwe-Smit

6-3 6-1#578Saba Purtseladze

4-6 6-2 6-0#791Demetris Azoides

2-6 6-2 7-5#775Mert Naci Turker

6-0 6-1—Gokberk Saritas

5-7 6-1 6-2—Charles Bertimon

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2—Dominick Mosejczuk

6-0 6-3—Karim Mabrouk

6-4 6-0#896Younes Lalami Laaroussi

6-3 4-0 ret.#849Nicolas Robert

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPatrick BradyBrady

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Toufik SahtaliSahtaliTS

Patrick Brady carries the stronger recent form — Toufik Sahtali's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In72.9%+19.9pp53.0%

1st Serve Won72.5%+6.6pp65.9%

2nd Serve Won56.0%+3.9pp52.1%

Aces / Match2.8+0.52.3

Double Faults / Match1.33.3 fewer4.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.9%+4.8pp44.7%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

Break Pts Converted49.4%—50.0%

Break Pts Saved50.0%—50.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+1.7pp51.9%

Serve · 5–0

72.9%1st Serve In+19.9pp53.0%

72.5%1st Serve Won+6.6pp65.9%

56.0%2nd Serve Won+3.9pp52.1%

2.8Aces / Match+0.52.3

1.3Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer4.6

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won+4.8pp44.7%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

49.4%Break Pts Converted—50.0%

50.0%Break Pts Saved—50.6%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+1.7pp51.9%