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Predictions graded

Oscar Jose Gutierrez #723Brazil0Santiago Rodriguez Taverna #434Argentina2

Sets 2-6 · 6-7Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:20 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSantiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna · 289 places

Oscar Jose Gutierrez

Brazil

Gutierrez, 33, is a right-hander who identifies clay as his preferred surface. His ATP career high was No. 363 in November 2019.

Current ranking: #723
Peak ranking: #363 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

Argentina

Rodríguez Taverna, 27, is a right-hander. His career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 157 in August 2022.

Current ranking: #434
Peak ranking: #157 · 2022
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Taverna is a modest favorite based on ranking and serve stats, but Gutierrez leads H2H 2-0 and has a slightly better games won percentage.

The match is likely to be close, with value on Gutierrez +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games. Avoid Taverna at 1.40, as the odds imply a 71.4% chance versus a model estimate of 55%.

Context

Gutierrez, 35, is a clay-court specialist with 437 career wins on the surface, but his recent results have dipped.
His last-15 clay sample shows a 46.7% win rate and a below-average first-serve percentage, which could give Rodriguez Taverna more opportunities on return. However, Gutierrez's return points won (42.7%) is slightly better than his opponent's, so he may still compete in rallies.
- Last 15 matches on clay: 7 wins, 8 losses (46.7% win rate).
- First serve in: 57.3% (608/1061).
- Break points converted: 39.1% (52/133).
- Return points won: 42.7% (476/1116).
Rodriguez Taverna, 29, is a tall right-hander with a career clay win percentage of 57.5%, but his recent form has been inconsistent.
His last-15 clay record is 8-7, but he retired from a match in June and has lost to players ranked outside the top 300. His return points won (38.6%) is below Gutierrez's, which may limit his ability to break serve, though his first-serve points won (67.3%) is slightly better.
- Last 15 matches on clay: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3% win rate).
- Return points won: 38.6% (438/1135).
- First serve points won: 67.3% (455/676).
- Retired in a match on 2026-06-26 against Juan Manuel La Serna.
The two players met twice in May 2015 on clay, with Gutierrez winning 6-2 6-1 and 6-4 6-4.
Those wins came over a decade ago, so they may not reflect current form, but they show Gutierrez has historically handled this matchup on clay. Rodriguez Taverna has improved since then, but the head-to-head gives Gutierrez a psychological edge.
- 2015-05-18: Gutierrez won 6-2 6-1 on clay.
- 2015-05-11: Gutierrez won 6-4 6-4 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

1.40fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Taverna's ranking and recent serve/break-point stats suggest a modest edge, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Taverna has a slight edge in recent form, ranking, and serve/break-point resilience on clay, making him a modest favorite.
- Last 15 overall record: Taverna 8-7 (53.3%) vs Gutierrez 7-8 (46.7%)
- Taverna ranking 434 vs Gutierrez 723
- Taverna last 15 first serve points won 67.3% vs Gutierrez 65.8%
- Taverna last 15 break points saved 56.1% vs Gutierrez 50.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSantiago Rodriguez TavernaEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, and their comparable level suggests a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Gutierrez last 15 average 22.5 games per match (169 games / 15 matches)
- Taverna last 15 average 23.3 games per match (171 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gutierrez's slightly better games won percentage suggests he can keep the match close, making +3.5 games a solid handicap.
- Gutierrez last 15 games won 50.1%
- Taverna last 15 games won 48.9%
- Gutierrez has a slight edge in games won percentage
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonOscar Jose Gutierrez +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the overall match length and competitive nature, the first set is likely to be close and exceed 9.5 games.
- Gutierrez last 15 average 22.5 games per match
- Taverna last 15 average 23.3 games per match
- Both players have close first-set scores in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is also likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve and extending the set.
- Gutierrez last 15 average 22.5 games per match
- Taverna last 15 average 23.3 games per match
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The players are closely matched, making a three-set match more likely than a straight-sets result.
- Gutierrez last 15 sets won 45.7%
- Taverna last 15 sets won 48.6%
- Both players have similar total points won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Taverna's stronger first-serve performance and higher first-set conversion rate give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Taverna last 15 first serve points won 67.3%
- Gutierrez last 15 first serve in 57.3%
- Taverna career first set win conversion 87%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSantiago Rodriguez TavernaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault rates average 6.0 per match, supporting the over on 5.5.
- Gutierrez last 15 double faults per match 3.4
- Taverna last 15 double faults per match 2.6
- Combined average double faults per match 6.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates of both players slightly exceed 5.5, making the over a reasonable but not strong play.
- Taverna last 15 aces per match 3.8
- Gutierrez last 15 aces per match 1.8
- Combined average aces per match 5.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-2 6-1Oscar Jose Gutierrez#723vSantiago Rodriguez Taverna#434May 18, 2015

W6-4 6-4Oscar Jose Gutierrez#723vSantiago Rodriguez Taverna#434May 11, 2015

2 total meetings

Oscar Jose Gutierrez

7W 8L

7-5 5-7 6-4—Juan Ignacio Gallego

6-3 6-3—Asier Meneses Perny

7-6(5) 6-3—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-2 6-2—Valentin Lapalu

6-4 6-0#347Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-0 5-7 7-5—Ivan Iutkin

6-4 6-4#829Tom Zeuch

6-2 6-2#341Marko Topo

6-4 6-3#676Pedro Rodenas

6-7(5) 6-1 6-4#426Eric Vanshelboim

6-2 1-6 6-3—Sergio Planella Hernandez

6-4 7-5#541Gerard Campana Lee

3-6 6-4 6-4#746Carles Hernandez

6-3 6-3#1149Alejandro Garcia

6-4 7-6(3)—Luka Talan Lopatic

Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#120Henrique Rocha

1-6 6-3 7-5#220Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

1-6 6-4 6-2#491Izan Almazan Valiente

6-3 7-6(3)—Adam Martin Espinar

7-6(2) 6-7(3) 6-2#115Nicolas Mejia

7-6(1) 6-3#867Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios

6-2 1-0 ret.#289Juan Manuel La Serna

7-6(9) 3-6 6-2#658Thiago Cigarran

6-4 6-4#325Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-1 6-1#721Ignacio Parisca

7-5 6-7(3) 6-0#325Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-3 3-6 6-1#452Karim Bennani

6-1 7-6(5)#572Maxime Janvier

7-6(10) 4-6 6-2#1415Piotr Matuszewski

6-4 7-5#500Adrian Boitan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OGOscar Jose GutierrezGutierrez

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Santiago Rodriguez TavernaTavernaST

Santiago Rodriguez Taverna carries the stronger recent form — Oscar Jose Gutierrez's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.3%+2.4pp59.7%

1st Serve Won65.8%+1.5pp67.3%

2nd Serve Won49.4%—49.1%

Aces / Match1.8+2.03.8

Double Faults / Match3.40.8 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.7%+4.1pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.1%+2.3pp36.8%

Break Pts Saved50.0%+6.1pp56.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.2pp49.3%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

57.3%1st Serve In+2.4pp59.7%

65.8%1st Serve Won+1.5pp67.3%

49.4%2nd Serve Won—49.1%

1.8Aces / Match+2.03.8

3.4Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

42.7%Return Pts Won+4.1pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–1

39.1%Break Pts Converted+2.3pp36.8%

50.0%Break Pts Saved+6.1pp56.1%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.2pp49.3%