PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Oliwier Sterniczuk #1824Poland0Ivan Gakhov #476Russia2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIvan Gakhov · 1348 places

Oliwier Sterniczuk

Poland

Sterniczuk, 18, is listed with SKT Szczecin. His available 2026 competitive record is concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #1824
Peak ranking: #1740
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Ivan Gakhov

Russia

His career-high singles ranking is No. 142, achieved on 19 June 2023. Clay accounts for the majority of his recorded career singles matches.

Current ranking: #476
Peak ranking: #142 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Gakhov's massive clay experience and better return/break metrics make him the likely winner, but his poor recent form adds risk.

The match is expected to be competitive with breaks, favoring over 21.5 total games. Avoid Sterniczuk at long odds despite the value gap, as his clay stats are far inferior.

Context

Gakhov, 29, is a left-hander ranked 476 with a career clay record of 486-322, but his recent results have dipped.
In his last 15 matches, Gakhov has a 40% win rate on clay, while Sterniczuk has won 53.3% of his last 15. Gakhov's first-serve percentage has also dropped to 53.4%, which could give Sterniczuk more return opportunities. However, Gakhov still wins 65.8% of first-serve points, so his serve remains a weapon when it lands.
- Gakhov's last 15 clay matches: 6 wins, 9 losses (40% win rate).
- Sterniczuk's last 15 clay matches: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3% win rate).
- Gakhov's first-serve percentage in last 15: 53.4%, down from career 61%.
Gakhov has a career first-serve percentage of 61%, but his recent numbers show a decline.
In his last 15 matches, Gakhov has landed only 53.4% of first serves, which gives opponents more looks at second serves. However, he still wins 65.8% of first-serve points, so when the first serve goes in, it is effective. Sterniczuk's return points won is 36.9%, so he may not fully exploit Gakhov's lower first-serve percentage.
- Gakhov's first-serve percentage in last 15: 53.4%.
- Gakhov's first-serve points won in last 15: 65.8%.
- Sterniczuk's return points won in last 15: 36.9%.
Sterniczuk, 20, is unranked and has played mostly clay-court events in Poland.
Sterniczuk's 53.3% win rate in his last 15 matches is better than Gakhov's 40%, but his total points won is only 45.4%, indicating he has not been dominant. His break point conversion rate is 37.3%, which is below average, so he may struggle to capitalize on Gakhov's second serves. This match could be closer than the win-loss records suggest.
- Sterniczuk's last 15 clay matches: 8 wins, 7 losses.
- Sterniczuk's total points won in last 15: 45.4%.
- Sterniczuk's break point conversion in last 15: 37.3%.
Oliwier Sterniczuk, 20, is a right-handed Polish player ranked No. 1824 who received a qualifying wild card for the Szczecin Challenger.
The wild card confirms his place in the qualifying draw but does not change his recent form or fitness for this match.
- The tournament preview published on 4 September listed Sterniczuk among the four qualifying wild-card recipients.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 03:36 · Europe/BucharestSuper FM — Przed nami 33. edycja Invest in Szczecin Opensuper.fm · 4 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ivan Gakhov

1.01fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 99%

0.0ppshort

Gakhov's superior clay experience and better recent return/break metrics give him a structural edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Gakhov's superior clay experience and better recent return/break metrics give him a structural edge.
- Gakhov has 486 career clay wins vs Sterniczuk's 18, with a 60.2% career win rate.
- Gakhov's last 15 clay return points won is 41.2% vs Sterniczuk's 36.9%.
- Gakhov's last 15 break point conversion is 46.4% vs Sterniczuk's 37.3%.
- Sterniczuk's last 15 total points won is 45.4% vs Gakhov's 49.1%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIvan GakhovEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with longer rallies on clay, pushing total games over.
- Gakhov's last 15 average match duration is 123.7 minutes vs Sterniczuk's 100 minutes.
- Gakhov's last 15 games won percentage is 48.5% vs Sterniczuk's 49.8%.
- Both players have similar games won percentages, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Serve vulnerabilities on both sides should lead to breaks and a longer first set.
- Gakhov's last 15 first serve in is 53.4%, leading to more return points.
- Sterniczuk's last 15 first serve in is 64%, but his first serve points won is only 60.5%.
- Both players have break point conversion rates above 37%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to remain competitive given both players' break point dynamics.
- Gakhov's last 15 second serve points won is 46.7% vs Sterniczuk's 40.5%.
- Sterniczuk's last 15 break points saved is 53%, indicating vulnerability.
- Both players have similar games won percentages in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gakhov's stronger first serve and break point saving should help him start well.
- Gakhov's first set win conversion is 87% career vs Sterniczuk's 94%.
- Gakhov's last 15 first serve points won is 65.8% vs Sterniczuk's 60.5%.
- Gakhov's last 15 break points saved is 58.2% vs Sterniczuk's 53%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIvan GakhovEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gakhov's superior ace rate should push the combined total over the line.
- Gakhov averages 4.4 aces per match in last 15, Sterniczuk 2.5.
- Gakhov's career aces total is 2851 vs Sterniczuk's 41.
- Clay surface typically reduces ace counts, but Gakhov's serve is a weapon.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second serve struggles should result in a higher double fault count.
- Gakhov averages 4.4 double faults per match in last 15, Sterniczuk 2.6.
- Gakhov's first serve in is only 53.4%, leading to more second serves.
- Sterniczuk's first serve in is 64%, but his second serve points won is 40.5%.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Sterniczuk's long odds may tempt bettors, but his recent form and clay metrics are significantly weaker than Gakhov's.

Oliwier Sterniczuk

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#440Corentin Denolly

6-3 6-3—Anes Latifovic

6-3 7-6(1)—Jakub Cernovicky

6-4 6-2—Milosz Sroka

6-3 6-0—Haiyi Qin

6-0 6-4—Uladzislau Tarasevich

6-2 5-7 10-6—Maksymilian Zurek

6-3 7-6(5)—Juliusz Bienkiewicz

6-3 6-1—Eli Mizerski

6-4 6-0#346Oriol Roca Batalla

6-3 7-6(4)—Piotr Siekanowicz

6-4 6-1—Baikal Kuszli

6-4 6-3—Jeremy Gschwendtner

6-2 6-4#827Alan Wazny

6-3 0-6 6-2—Michal Novansky

Ivan Gakhov

6W 9L

4-6 6-3 6-2#411Oleg Prihodko

7-6(3) 6-4#638Alexander Ritschard

6-4 6-0—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

2-6 7-6(8) 7-5#866Yanaki Milev

6-2 4-6 7-6(4)—Enrique Carrascosa Diaz

7-6(3) 6-4#721Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-4—Madhwin Kamath

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4#280Thiago Moura Monteiro

7-5 7-6(4)#724Nikolai Barsukov

6-3 3-6 6-2#738Emilien Demanet

6-3 7-6(7)—Ludvig Fredrik Hede

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#898Gijs Brouwer

7-5 4-2 ret.#546Jelle Sels

6-3 7-5—Zangar Nurlanuly

6-1 7-5#210Pol Martin Tiffon

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OSOliwier SterniczukSterniczuk

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Ivan GakhovGakhovIG

Ivan Gakhov carries the stronger recent form — Oliwier Sterniczuk's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In10/15 · 15/1564.0%+10.6pp53.4%

1st Serve Won10/15 · 15/1560.5%+5.3pp65.8%

2nd Serve Won10/15 · 15/1540.5%+6.2pp46.7%

Aces / Match10/15 · 15/152.5+1.94.4

Double Faults / Match10/15 · 15/152.61.8 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won10/15 · 15/1536.9%+4.3pp41.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted10/15 · 15/1537.3%+9.1pp46.4%

Break Pts Saved10/15 · 15/1553.0%+5.2pp58.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won10/15 · 15/1545.4%+3.7pp49.1%

Serve · 2–3

64.0%1st Serve In10/15 · 15/15+10.6pp53.4%

60.5%1st Serve Won10/15 · 15/15+5.3pp65.8%

40.5%2nd Serve Won10/15 · 15/15+6.2pp46.7%

2.5Aces / Match10/15 · 15/15+1.94.4

2.6Double Faults / Match10/15 · 15/151.8 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

36.9%Return Pts Won10/15 · 15/15+4.3pp41.2%

Pressure · 0–2

37.3%Break Pts Converted10/15 · 15/15+9.1pp46.4%

53.0%Break Pts Saved10/15 · 15/15+5.2pp58.2%

Points · 0–1

45.4%Total Pts Won10/15 · 15/15+3.7pp49.1%

Oliwier Sterniczuk

Ivan Gakhov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ivan Gakhov

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Oliwier Sterniczuk @ 11.00

Oliwier Sterniczuk

Ivan Gakhov

Stat Battle