Nikita Mashtakov #654Ukraine22 – 0Mario Gonzalez Fernandez #589Spain0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Mashtakov's dominant recent clay form and Gonzalez Fernandez's poor clay results give the Ukrainian a clear surface-fit and form edge.

• Mashtakov last 15 on clay: 12-3 record, 54.6% games won, 51.8% total points won
• Gonzalez Fernandez last 15 on clay: 0-1 record, 36.8% games won, 45.7% total points won (only 1 match tracked)
• Mashtakov 2026 clay season: 26-10; Gonzalez Fernandez 2026 clay: 1-4
• Mashtakov ranking 576 vs Gonzalez Fernandez 564, but surface form strongly favors Mashtakov

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Mashtakov's superior clay form should allow him to win by at least 4 games.

• Mashtakov average games won per match last 15: 13.9
• Gonzalez Fernandez average games won per match last 15: 11.0
• Mashtakov's clay dominance suggests a comfortable margin

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

First sets could be competitive with both players holding serve early.

• Mashtakov recent clay first sets often close: 7-5, 7-6, 6-4
• Gonzalez Fernandez first set in clay loss: 6-3
• Both players have first serve percentages around 63-67%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Mashtakov's strong first-set conversion and clay dominance make him likely to take the opening set.

• Mashtakov first-set win conversion career: 83%
• Mashtakov last 15 clay: 12-3 record, often winning first set in victories
• Gonzalez Fernandez lost first set in his only recent clay match (6-3)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace counts, making under 5.5 total aces likely.

• Mashtakov aces per match last 15: 1.8
• Gonzalez Fernandez aces per match last 15: 1.1
• Combined average aces per match: 2.9

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average around 3 double faults per match, so over 5.5 is plausible.

• Mashtakov double faults per match last 15: 3.1
• Gonzalez Fernandez double faults per match last 15: 3.0
• Combined average double faults per match: 6.1