ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Maximilian Marterer #746Germany2Federico Arnaboldi #519Italy0

Sets 6-1 · 6-1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederico Arnaboldi · 227 places

Maximilian Marterer

Germany

Current ranking and playing style are taken from the supplied structured match data.

Current ranking: #746
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

The supplied structured profile lists Arnaboldi at No. 519 and as a right-handed player with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #519
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Marterer has a slight edge due to H2H and second-serve stability, but his recent form is shaky.

The match is likely to be competitive, with value on over 21.5 total games and Arnaboldi +3.5 games. No value on match winner at current odds.

Context

Marterer, 30, is a left-hander ranked 746 and has a career clay win percentage of 58%. Arnaboldi, 25, is ranked 521 and has a career clay win percentage of 54%.
Marterer's recent clay record is 6-6 over his last 12 matches, while Arnaboldi is 6-9 over his last 15. The sample sizes are small, but Marterer's slightly better win rate and higher first-serve points won (69% vs 67%) give him a modest edge on this surface.
- Marterer last 15 on clay: 6-6 record, 50% win rate.
- Arnaboldi last 15 on clay: 6-9 record, 40% win rate.
- Marterer first-serve points won on clay: 69%; Arnaboldi: 67.3%.
Arnaboldi has played 15 matches in the last three months, all on clay, with a 6-9 record.
He retired in a match on August 19 and again on June 28. Both retirements were early in the match, but there is no current injury report, so this is only a minor concern for his durability in a best-of-three qualifying match.
- Arnaboldi retired on 2026-08-19 vs Stefano Reitano after losing first set 6-7(7).
- Arnaboldi retired on 2026-06-28 vs Enrico Dalla Valle after trailing 2-6 1-3.
The two players met once before, in the third round of a Challenger event on clay.
Marterer won that match comfortably, converting 75% of break points and winning 68% of second-serve points. That result is over a year old, so it carries limited weight, but it shows Marterer can handle Arnaboldi's game on this surface.
- 2025-05-23: Marterer def. Arnaboldi 6-4 6-1 on clay.
- Marterer won 75% of break points in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Maximilian Marterer

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Marterer's superior second-serve stability and direct H2H win on clay give him a moderate edge over Arnaboldi's inconsistent recent form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Marterer's superior second-serve stability and direct H2H win on clay give him a moderate edge over Arnaboldi's inconsistent recent form.
- H2H: Marterer won their only meeting 6-4 6-1 on clay in May 2025.
- Last 15 on clay: Marterer 50% record (6-6), Arnaboldi 40% (6-9).
- Marterer return points won on clay 35.3% vs Arnaboldi 39.5%, but Marterer second serve points won 53.6% vs 46.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaximilian MartererEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay baseline rallies and similar games-won percentages suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Marterer clay matches average 104.4 minutes, Arnaboldi 110.2 minutes.
- Marterer last 15 clay games won 50.4%, Arnaboldi 47.2%.
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arnaboldi's competitive baseline stats and recent three-set battles make a +3.5 game handicap likely to cover.
- Marterer games won on clay 50.4%, Arnaboldi 47.2%.
- Arnaboldi lost H2H by 5 games, but current form is closer.
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (49.8% vs 49.1%).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFederico Arnaboldi +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been tight, and both players hold serve reasonably well, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Marterer first set in H2H was 6-4 (10 games).
- Arnaboldi's last three matches: first sets of 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.
- Both players have first serve points won around 67-69% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marterer's strong first-set conversion and H2H pattern support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Marterer first set win conversion career 88%, Arnaboldi 87%.
- Marterer won first set in H2H 6-4.
- Arnaboldi lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMaximilian MartererEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 double faults per match, and Arnaboldi's low first-serve percentage adds risk.
- Marterer averages 2.8 double faults per match on clay, Arnaboldi 3.2.
- Combined average double faults: 6.0.
- Arnaboldi's first serve percentage is low at 54.7%, increasing double fault risk.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages are near the line, and clay reduces ace counts, making over 6.5 a coin flip.
- Marterer averages 2.6 aces per match on clay, Arnaboldi 3.6.
- Combined average aces per match: 6.2.
- H2H match had 3 aces each (6 total).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-1Maximilian Marterer#746vFederico Arnaboldi#521May 23, 2025

1 total meetings

Maximilian Marterer

7W 8L

7-5 6-7(5) 4-1 ret.#419Benjamin Hassan

7-6(7) 6-3#378Daniel Masur

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#490Louis Wessels

2-6 6-0 6-3—Aaron Funk

6-2 1-6 6-3—Lars Goran Verwerft

4-6 3-0 ret.#854Sidane Pontjodikromo

6-4 6-4#550Michael Bassem Sobhy

6-3 4-6 6-2#577Christoph Negritu

6-1 6-7(5) 6-1#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-1 6-1#286Pierre-Hugues Herbert

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 2-6 6-2#93Adam Walton

6-4 6-1#521Federico Arnaboldi

5-1#897Federico Coria

6-3 7-6(5)#195Edas Butvilas

6-2 5-7 6-4#860Yshai Oliel

Federico Arnaboldi

6W 9L

5-7 7-5 6-1#234Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#432Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-3—Edoardo Cherie Ligniere

6-3 6-1#234Juan Pablo Varillas

2-4 ret.#304Federico Bondioli

7-6(7) ret.#900Stefano Reitano

3-6 6-1 7-6(0)—Gabriele Crivellaro

7-5 6-4—Leonardo Primucci

7-5 6-1—Niccolo Ciavarella

6-1 6-3#283Sandro Kopp

4-6 6-3 6-4#637Giovanni Oradini

6-2 6-1#893Peter Buldorini

1-6 6-4 6-2—Peetu Pohjola

3-6 6-3 6-2#713Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-2 3-1 ret.#333Enrico Dalla Valle

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MMMaximilian MartererMarterer

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Federico ArnaboldiArnaboldiFA

Maximilian Marterer carries the stronger recent form — Federico Arnaboldi's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1566.3%+11.6pp54.7%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1568.2%+0.9pp67.3%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1550.0%+3.5pp46.5%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/152.6+1.03.6

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.90.3 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1534.1%+5.4pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1540.0%+3.2pp43.2%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1564.6%+4.6pp60.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1548.4%—49.1%

Serve · 4–1

66.3%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+11.6pp54.7%

68.2%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+0.9pp67.3%

50.0%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+3.5pp46.5%

2.6Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.03.6

2.9Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.3 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

34.1%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+5.4pp39.5%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+3.2pp43.2%

64.6%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+4.6pp60.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.4%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15—49.1%