ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Maxim Zhukov #531Russia1Thijmen Loof #1507Netherlands2

Sets 6-7 · 7-5 · 3-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaxim Zhukov · 976 places

Maxim Zhukov

Russia

Limited reliable public profile information was returned in the requested searches. Structured data identifies him as a right-handed player.

Current ranking: #531
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Thijmen Loof

Netherlands

Loof, 24, is the 196 cm right-hander in this matchup. His singles career-high is No. 961, reached in October 2024.

Current ranking: #1507
Peak ranking: #961 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 22:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Zhukov's superior recent form and point-winning edge make him the likely winner, but the odds offer no value.

Loof's powerful serve and tendency for long matches support over 21.5 total games and over 8.5 total aces as better betting angles.

Context

Zhukov, ranked 544, has a 10-3 record on indoor hard in 2026 but has struggled on outdoor hard this year.
His last three outdoor hard matches ended in losses, including two retirements, and his return points won dropped to 33.8% on that surface. This suggests he may be less comfortable outdoors, though the sample is small.
- Last 15 on Hard: 0-3 record, 33.8% return points won, 4.3 double faults per match.
- Recent hard-court losses include retirements against Samir Hamza Reguig and Sergey Fomin.
- In contrast, Zhukov went 9-3 on indoor hard in the same window.
Loof, a 196cm right-hander, has a career win rate of 41.3% and is unranked.
He retired after losing the second set to Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong, and his overall recent form is weak with only four wins in his last 15 matches. If he is not fully fit, Zhukov may face less resistance.
- On 2026-09-07, Loof lost 6-7(4) 6-4 ret. to Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong.
- Loof has won only 4 of his last 15 matches overall.
Zhukov has played 15 matches in the recent window, with a 60% win rate overall.
He retired against Samir Hamza Reguig on September 6 and against Sergey Fomin on August 11. These retirements could indicate an ongoing problem, which may affect his performance in this match.
- Retired on 2026-09-06 vs Samir Hamza Reguig (score 7-6(5) 3-6 1-0 ret.).
- Retired on 2026-08-11 vs Sergey Fomin (score 7-5 4-1 ret.).
Loof's career win rate is 41.3%, and he has not been ranked recently.
In his last 15 matches, he won 26.7% of matches and only 35.8% of return points. His break point conversion is 36.5%, which limits his ability to pressure Zhukov's serve.
- Last 15 overall: 4-11 record, 35.8% return points won, 36.5% break points converted.
- Career win rate: 41.3%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Maxim Zhukov

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Zhukov's superior overall recent record and point-winning edge make him the likely winner, but the edge is thin relative to the odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Zhukov's superior recent form and overall point-winning edge make him the clear favorite despite a poor recent hard-court sample.
- Zhukov last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Loof 4-11 (26.7%)
- Zhukov last 15 total points won 51.5% vs Loof 48.1%
- Zhukov career win pct 57.3% vs Loof 41.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaxim ZhukovEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Loof's matches tend to be longer and both players have shown three-set tendencies, making over 21.5 games plausible.
- Zhukov last 15 average 20.7 games per match, Loof 23.4
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
- Loof's last 15 matches average 108.6 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have frequently been close, suggesting a higher game count in set one.
- Zhukov recent first sets often competitive (e.g., 7-6, 6-7)
- Loof has played tiebreaks in recent first sets
- Both players have similar first serve points won around 67%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zhukov's stronger overall set-winning rate and Loof's poor recent form support Zhukov taking the opening set.
- Zhukov first set win conversion career 84%
- Zhukov last 15 sets won 55.6% vs Loof 34.3%
- Loof first set win conversion career 86% but recent form weak
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaxim ZhukovEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Loof's high ace rate combined with Zhukov's moderate ace count makes over 8.5 total aces likely.
- Loof last 15 aces per match 5.8, Zhukov 3.6
- Combined average aces per match 9.4
- Loof's height 196cm aids serve power
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages hover around 5, making over 4.5 a coin-flip but supported by Zhukov's hard-court struggles.
- Zhukov last 15 double faults per match 2.8, Loof 2.2
- Combined average 5.0 double faults per match
- Zhukov's hard-court double faults per match 4.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Maxim Zhukov

9W 6L

7-6(5) 3-6 1-0 ret.#682Samir Hamza Reguig

7-5 4-1 ret.#295Sergey Fomin

7-6(1) 6-7(3) 6-2—Kerem Yilmaz

6-1 6-4#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-3 6-1#510Fitriadi M Rifqi

6-7(5) 7-5 6-4#899Hanyi Liu

6-3 3-6 6-1#817Linang Xiao

6-2 6-2—Ruslan Serazhetdinov

6-3 6-1#667Karlis Ozolins

6-7(4) 6-1 4-2 ret.#898Evgeny Philippov

6-2 5-7 6-2#510Fitriadi M Rifqi

6-2 2-0 ret.#817Linang Xiao

6-1 6-0—Ivan Iutkin

6-2 6-3#454Jie Cui

6-4 6-2#670Egor Agafonov

Thijmen Loof

4W 11L

6-7(4) 6-4 ret.#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#763Uisung Park

7-6(3) 4-6 6-2#379Juan Pablo Ficovich

5-7 6-3 7-5#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-6(2) 6-4#867Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios

6-3 6-3#714Michael Vrbensky

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

6-1 7-6(5)#470Cannon Kingsley

7-6(6) 6-2#533Aziz Ouakaa

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(3)—Tanguy Genier

6-1 6-3#796Gabriele Pennaforti

6-3 6-4#885Facundo Juarez

6-3 6-0#895Matthew Summers

6-3 6-2—Blake Bayldon

6-3 5-7 6-3—Mikal Statham

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MZMaxim ZhukovZhukov

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Thijmen LoofLoofTL

Maxim Zhukov carries the stronger recent form — Thijmen Loof's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.7%+2.8pp59.9%

1st Serve Won67.7%—67.3%

2nd Serve Won46.2%+5.1pp51.3%

Aces / Match3.6+2.25.8

Double Faults / Match2.80.6 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.8%+7.0pp35.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.5%+8.0pp36.5%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+2.5pp54.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.5%+3.4pp48.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

62.7%1st Serve In+2.8pp59.9%

67.7%1st Serve Won—67.3%

46.2%2nd Serve Won+5.1pp51.3%

3.6Aces / Match+2.25.8

2.8Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

42.8%Return Pts Won+7.0pp35.8%

Pressure · 2–0

44.5%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp36.5%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+2.5pp54.6%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won+3.4pp48.1%