BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Maria Florencia Urrutia #467Argentina0Anastasia Tikhonova #262Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 1-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 00:50 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnastasia Tikhonova · 205 places

Maria Florencia Urrutia

Argentina

Urrutia, 25, is listed as a right-hander. Her recorded professional singles activity has been predominantly on clay; no verified preferred-surface declaration was located.

Current ranking: #467
Peak ranking: #412
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Anastasia Tikhonova

Russia

Right-hander whose career-high singles ranking is No. 151, reached in January 2024. Official player data lists hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #262
Peak ranking: #151 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Urrutia's dominant clay form and return game make her a strong value underdog against Tikhonova, who has struggled on the surface.

Back Urrutia to win the match and cover the -3.5 game handicap.

Context

Urrutia, ranked 467, has built her recent record almost entirely on clay, winning 10 of 15 matches in that span. Tikhonova, ranked 262, has played more on hard courts in her career but has struggled on clay recently.
This match is on hard court, where Urrutia has almost no recent experience and Tikhonova has a stronger career baseline. However, Urrutia's current form is better overall, and Tikhonova's recent clay losses may not directly translate to hard court. The surface switch adds uncertainty to both players' expected level.
- Urrutia's last 15 matches are all on clay, with a 10-5 record.
- Tikhonova's last 9 clay matches show a 3-6 record, but she has only 3 hard-court matches in the same window (2-1).
- Urrutia has no hard-court wins in her career surface record, while Tikhonova has 123 career hard-court wins.
Tikhonova has been ranked as high as 262 and has more tour-level experience, but her recent results have been below that level. Urrutia is ranked 467 and plays mostly lower-tier events.
Tikhonova's ranking advantage may not translate into a clear edge because she has won only 7 of her last 15 matches and her return points won is just 42.6%. Urrutia's return points won is 52.6% in the same span, suggesting she can pressure Tikhonova's serve despite the ranking gap.
- Tikhonova's last 15 overall record is 7-8 (46.7% win rate).
- Tikhonova's return points won in last 15 is 42.6%, compared to Urrutia's 52.6%.
- Urrutia's last 15 overall record is 10-5 (66.7% win rate).
Tikhonova is seeded No. 7 in qualifying, while Urrutia is listed as an alternate, so Urrutia's place depends on a late withdrawal before the draw is final.
- Tikhonova appears at seed No. 7 and Urrutia is designated an alternate in the current 2026 player list.
To watchSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 22:09 · Europe/BucharestWTA Official SP Open 2026 Player Listwww.wtatennis.com · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 5.25
The read
Urrutia's superior recent clay form and return game outweigh Tikhonova's ranking edge on this surface.
- Urrutia last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Tikhonova 7-8 (46.7%)
- Urrutia last15 clay record 10-5, Tikhonova last15 clay record 3-6 (33.3%)
- Urrutia last15 return points won 52.6% vs Tikhonova 42.6%
- Urrutia ranking 467 vs Tikhonova 262, but surface fit strongly favors Urrutia
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaria Florencia UrrutiaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive match expected with both players capable of extending sets, pushing total games over the line.
- Urrutia last15 average games per match 17.9, Tikhonova 20.5
- Both players have had multiple three-set matches recently
- Tikhonova's last15 clay matches average 18.7 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Urrutia's strong first-set conversion and better return stats give her the edge in the opening set.
- Urrutia first set win conversion 91% career
- Urrutia last15 first serve points won 59.5% vs Tikhonova 60.3% on clay
- Urrutia last15 break points converted 50.7% vs Tikhonova 45% on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaria Florencia UrrutiaEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Urrutia's dominance in recent sets reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Urrutia tiebreak win percentage 33% career
- Tikhonova tiebreak win percentage 57% career
- Urrutia last15 sets won 68.8%, suggesting fewer tight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tikhonova's serve power should push total aces over the line even on clay.
- Tikhonova last15 aces per match 3.9, Urrutia 0.5
- Tikhonova clay aces per match 3.2
- Combined expected aces around 4.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates suggest a high total, especially with Tikhonova's aggressive serving.
- Tikhonova last15 double faults per match 5.1, Urrutia 2.9
- Tikhonova clay double faults per match 4.2
- Combined expected double faults around 8.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Maria Florencia Urrutia

10W 5L

6-3 7-5#743Luna Maria Cinalli

6-1 6-3—Ana Julieta Lopez Ocampos

6-0 6-0#897Natalia Sousa Salazar

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#323Victoria Bosio

6-3 6-1#463Fernanda Labrana

7-5 6-2#882Lourdes Ayala

6-1 6-1—Agustina Tarantola

7-6(4) 6-1#900Josefina Estevez

6-0 6-1#323Victoria Bosio

6-2 6-2—Camila Rodero

6-2 6-0#588Luciana Moyano

2-6 6-3 6-2#854Camila Romero

6-0 6-2#897Natalia Sousa Salazar

6-4 6-1#193Laura Pigossi

6-3 6-3#766Isabella Barrera Aguirre

Anastasia Tikhonova

7W 8L

6-7(5) 6-1 6-1#114Elsa Jacquemot

6-4 6-4#228Nao Hibino

6-4 4-6 7-5#109Darja Semenistaja

6-3 6-2#315Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-4 6-0#273Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-3 6-0#584Ruth Roura Llaverias

6-4 6-1#326Jessica Pieri

6-2 7-5#795Lola Giza

6-3 2-6 7-5#405Tena Lukas

6-1 6-4#865Victoria Pohle

6-1 6-2#247Alice Rame

6-4 7-5#304Eva Bennemann

3-6 6-3 6-4#160Polina Iatcenko

6-3 6-3#377Sandra Samir

6-1 6-1#687Allegra Korpanec Davies

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MUMaria Florencia UrrutiaUrrutia

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Anastasia TikhonovaTikhonovaAT

Maria Florencia Urrutia carries the stronger recent form — Anastasia Tikhonova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In77.1%+24.6pp52.5%

1st Serve Won59.5%+6.3pp65.8%

2nd Serve Won43.4%+6.5pp49.9%

Aces / Match0.5+3.43.9

Double Faults / Match2.92.2 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won52.6%+10.0pp42.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.7%+4.6pp46.1%

Break Pts Saved54.9%+2.7pp57.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.2%+3.7pp50.5%

Serve · 2–3

77.1%1st Serve In+24.6pp52.5%

59.5%1st Serve Won+6.3pp65.8%

43.4%2nd Serve Won+6.5pp49.9%

0.5Aces / Match+3.43.9

2.9Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

52.6%Return Pts Won+10.0pp42.6%

Pressure · 1–1

50.7%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp46.1%

54.9%Break Pts Saved+2.7pp57.6%

Points · 1–0

54.2%Total Pts Won+3.7pp50.5%