FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Luca Sanchez #64France0Daniel De Jonge #568Netherlands2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Sun 13 Sept 2026, 16:10 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLuca Sanchez · 504 places

Luca Sanchez

France

Sanchez, 27, is a right-handed French doubles specialist. His Roland-Garros player profile lists him at ATP doubles No. 64 and identifies Mathieu Olieu as his coach.

Current ranking: #64
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Daniel De Jonge

Netherlands

De Jonge, 27, is a right-hander from Vlissingen. His listed career-best singles ranking is No. 597, reached in July 2026.

Current ranking: #568
Peak ranking: #597 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 06:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Daniel De Jonge is a strong favorite over Luca Sanchez, who is winless on indoor hard courts in his last 15 and has lost 10 of 15 in straight sets.

De Jonge's superior return game and consistency make a 2-0 win likely, but the match winner odds offer no value. Consider De Jonge 2-0 or under 21.5 total games.

Context

De Jonge, ranked 568, has been active across hard, carpet, and grass events in 2026, compiling a 53.3% win rate over his last 15 matches.
Sanchez has lost five straight matches, all in straight sets, and his last win came in May 2022. De Jonge's recent activity and better results give him a clear form edge, though his last match was a straight-set loss to a lower-ranked opponent.
- Sanchez has lost his last 5 matches, all in straight sets, with his most recent win in May 2022.
- De Jonge has won 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%) and has played 15 matches in the last 15 weeks.
- De Jonge's last match was a 6-1 6-4 loss to Adan Freire Da Silva (ranked 868) on September 9, 2026.
Sanchez's last 15 matches include five on indoor hard, all losses, with a 31.1% games won percentage.
This match is on indoor hard, where Sanchez has been least effective recently. De Jonge has won 66.7% of his recent hard-court matches, though his only indoor hard match in the sample was a loss.
- Sanchez's last 15 indoor hard matches: 0-5 record, 31.1% games won.
- De Jonge's last 15 hard-court matches: 4-2 record, 58.2% games won.
- De Jonge's only indoor hard match in the last 15 was a loss (6-1 6-4 to Freire Da Silva).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daniel De Jonge

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

De Jonge's superior recent form and return game, combined with Sanchez's poor indoor hard record, make him the clear favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
De Jonge's superior recent form and return game, combined with Sanchez's poor indoor hard record, make him the clear favorite.
- Daniel De Jonge has a 53.3% win rate in last 15 matches (8-7), while Luca Sanchez is 26.7% (4-11).
- De Jonge's last 15 return points won is 40.2% vs Sanchez's 31.1%.
- Sanchez is 0-5 on indoor hard in last 15, De Jonge is 0-1 on indoor hard but has strong overall hard court record (4-2 in last 6 hard matches).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniel De JongeEstimated chance78%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez's poor form and De Jonge's ability to win efficiently suggest a relatively short match.
- Sanchez's last 15 matches average 18.7 games per match (281 games / 15 matches).
- De Jonge's last 15 matches average 21.0 games per match (315 games / 15 matches).
- Sanchez has lost 10 of his last 15 matches in straight sets, often with low game totals.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sanchez's poor first set performance suggests a low game total in set 1.
- Sanchez has lost the first set by a score of 6-2 or worse in 7 of his last 15 matches.
- De Jonge has won the first set 6-3 or better in 5 of his last 8 wins.
- Sanchez's first set games won average is 2.8 in last 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
De Jonge's stronger set win rate and Sanchez's tendency to start slowly favor De Jonge in set 1.
- De Jonge has won 58.8% of sets in last 15 matches, Sanchez only 25.8%.
- Sanchez has lost the first set in 11 of his last 15 matches.
- De Jonge's first serve points won is 73.9% vs Sanchez's 69%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniel De JongeEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sanchez's poor form and De Jonge's efficiency, a straight-set win for De Jonge is likely.
- Sanchez has lost in straight sets in 10 of his last 15 matches.
- De Jonge has won in straight sets in 6 of his last 8 wins.
- Sanchez's set win rate is only 25.8% in last 15.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonDaniel De Jonge 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The low frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches suggests a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Sanchez has played only 2 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- De Jonge has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Both players tend to win or lose sets without tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total over 11.5 is plausible.
- Sanchez averages 6.5 aces per match in last 15, De Jonge 5.4.
- Combined average aces per match is 11.9.
- Both players have high ace rates on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages support an over 10.5 total.
- Sanchez averages 6.3 double faults per match in last 15, De Jonge 4.7.
- Combined average double faults per match is 11.0.
- Both players have high double fault rates.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance55%

Luca Sanchez

4W 11L

6-2 6-2#163Nishesh Basavareddy

6-0 6-3#255Hayato Matsuoka

6-2 6-4#801Ricardas Berankis

7-6(6) 6-3#674Gabriel Debru

6-2 6-1#826Mathias Bourgue

7-5 6-1#898Steven Diez

6-4 6-3#292Matteo Martineau

6-3 7-6(4)#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-1 6-2—Vishal Gautam

6-0 6-4—Enzo Camargo Lima

6-3 6-3#1213Alen Rogic Hadzalic

6-2 6-2—Roko Asanovic

6-2 6-3#886Sebastian Prechtel

1-6 6-3 10-5—Arthur Bonnaud

7-6(3) 6-3#628Tsung-Hao Huang

Daniel De Jonge

8W 7L

6-1 6-4#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-3 6-2#415Robert Strombachs

6-3 6-3#811Filippo Moroni

6-1 6-4#854Pawel Juszczak

6-0 6-0—Barney Fitzpatrick

6-0 4-6 7-5#491Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 6-2—Valentin Gonzalez-Galino

6-4 7-6(6)#826Conor Gannon

6-4 6-3—Roan Jones

6-2 6-4—Daniel Borisov

6-2 6-3—Milosz Sroka

4-6 6-4 6-3#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1#248Yi Zhou

7-6(6) 6-4#449Emile Hudd

3-6 7-6(10) 6-4#894Michael Zhu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LSLuca SanchezSanchez

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniel De JongeJongeDJ

Daniel De Jonge carries the stronger recent form — Luca Sanchez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1553.3%+5.1pp58.4%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1569.0%+4.9pp73.9%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1540.3%+5.2pp45.5%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/156.5+1.15.4

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/156.31.6 fewer4.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1531.1%+9.1pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1527.5%+23.1pp50.6%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1556.4%—56.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1543.8%+7.1pp50.9%

Serve · 1–4

53.3%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+5.1pp58.4%

69.0%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+4.9pp73.9%

40.3%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+5.2pp45.5%

6.5Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.15.4

6.3Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/151.6 fewer4.7

Return · 0–1

31.1%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+9.1pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

27.5%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+23.1pp50.6%

56.4%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15—56.8%

Points · 0–1

43.8%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+7.1pp50.9%