ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Hanyi Liu #899China2Yaroslav Demin #669Russia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Sun 13 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–271%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYaroslav Demin · 230 places

Hanyi Liu

China

Liu, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 719, reached in April 2024.

Current ranking: #899
Peak ranking: #719 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

Demin, 21, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 624, reached on 4 November 2024.

Current ranking: #669
Peak ranking: #624 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Hanyi Liu's superior recent form and hard-court results, combined with Yaroslav Demin's poor surface record and high double-fault rate, make Liu a strong value pick at 2.90 odds.

Liu's first-serve effectiveness and break-point conversion give him the edge in what should be a competitive match. The best betting angle is Liu to win outright, with secondary value in over 4.5 double faults.

Context

Liu, ranked 899, is a right-hander from China who has played most of his recent matches on hard courts.
Liu's 60% win rate on hard courts in his last 10 matches is a clear contrast to Demin's 0-2 record on the surface in his last 15. Liu also wins 55.1% of games on hard courts, while Demin wins only 35.9% of games on hard courts. This suggests Liu is more comfortable on the surface and should have a baseline advantage.
- Liu's last 10 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 4 losses (60% win rate).
- Demin's last 2 hard-court matches: 0 wins, 2 losses (0% win rate).
- Liu wins 55.1% of games on hard courts; Demin wins 35.9% of games on hard courts.
Demin, ranked 669, is a Russian right-hander who has spent most of the last two months on clay.
Demin's last 15 matches include 13 on clay and only 2 on hard, and he lost both hard-court matches in straight sets. His hard-court return points won is just 25%, compared to 44.4% on clay. This surface switch could leave him vulnerable against Liu, who is more accustomed to hard courts.
- Demin's last 15 matches: 13 on clay, 2 on hard.
- Demin's hard-court return points won: 25% (26/104).
- Demin's clay return points won: 44.4% (380/855).
Liu, 25, has been active on the ITF and Challenger circuits, with a retirement in June against Kokoro Isomura.
Liu retired at 4-6 6-0 0-3 against Isomura on June 12, but he has completed all matches since then, including a three-set win over Kaichi Uchida. There is no current evidence of an ongoing injury, so this is a minor concern rather than a major factor.
- Liu retired on June 12, 2026 against Kokoro Isomura (score: 4-6 6-0 0-3 ret.).
- Liu has completed all matches since then, including a three-set win on August 31.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Liu's stronger recent form and hard-court results outweigh Demin's ranking edge, especially with Demin's poor recent hard-court sample.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Yaroslav Demin 7-8 (46.7%)
- Hanyi Liu last 15 hard-court record 6-4 (60%), Demin 0-2 on hard in same window
- Hanyi Liu ranking 899 vs Demin 669, but Liu has home advantage in Guangzhou
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHanyi LiuEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to feature close sets given both players' moderate return points won percentages, pushing total games over the line.
- Liu last 15 average games per match 18.1, Demin 20.5
- Both players have similar serve/return profiles, suggesting competitive sets
- Demin's last 15 matches averaged 105 minutes, Liu 101 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players capable of holding serve, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Liu's last 15 hard-court first set average games 9.3, Demin's 8.5
- Demin's first serve points won on hard 64.1% suggests he can hold serve
- Both players have break point save rates around 60%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's superior first-serve effectiveness on hard courts and strong first-set conversion rate give him the edge in the opening set.
- Liu first-set win conversion career 87%, Demin 85%
- Liu last 15 hard-court first serve points won 68.7%, Demin 64.1% on hard
- Liu won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHanyi LiuEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' break point conversion rates, sets are more likely to be decided by breaks than tiebreaks.
- Liu career tiebreak win percentage 48%, Demin 51%
- Both players have moderate tiebreak rates, but sets often decided by breaks
- Liu's break point conversion 49.1% in last 15, Demin 42.6%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's high double fault rate, especially on hard courts, makes over 4.5 double faults likely.
- Demin last 15 double faults per match 3.4, Liu 1.7
- Demin's hard-court double faults per match 5.0 in small sample
- Combined average double faults per match 5.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a total around 5, and hard-court conditions could push it over 5.5.
- Liu last 15 aces per match 2.5, Demin 2.3
- Combined average aces per match 4.8, but hard-court surfaces often produce more
- Demin's hard-court aces per match 3.5 in small sample
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Hanyi Liu

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#444Denis Yevseyev

6-0 6-1#1909Ren Nakamura

6-0 7-5#323Fajing Sun

3-6 6-3 6-2#277Kaichi Uchida

6-3 6-2#646Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-1—Xing Dao Chen

4-6 6-3 7-5#854Hoyoung Roh

6-2 6-1—Jia Hu

6-1 6-1—Kosuke Shibano

6-2 6-4#1581Zhao Zhao

6-4 6-3#663Yuta Kawahashi

4-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#539Kokoro Isomura

6-1 6-1—Artem Alekseychuk

7-5 6-2#646Chase Ferguson

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

Yaroslav Demin

7W 8L

6-4 6-3#450Jack Loge

6-4 6-2#889Niklas Schell

7-6(0) 6-4—Yassine Smiej

5-7 6-4 6-1#709Tristan Mccormick

6-1 2-6 6-4#638Alexander Ritschard

6-1 6-1—Pablo Aunion

3-6 6-4 6-4#746Carles Hernandez

6-4 6-2#569Sidharth Rawat

7-5 6-3#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-2 6-4#383Andrey Chepelev

6-4 6-4#257Andrej Nedic

6-2 6-3#896Younes Lalami Laaroussi

6-1 3-6 6-4—Esteban Talavera Cortes

6-3 6-1#395Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-1 6-1—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HLHanyi LiuLiu

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Yaroslav DeminDeminYD

Hanyi Liu carries the stronger recent form — Yaroslav Demin's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.5%+6.6pp59.9%

1st Serve Won67.7%+1.0pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won48.8%+1.6pp47.2%

Aces / Match2.5—2.3

Double Faults / Match1.71.7 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.4%+2.1pp42.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.1%+6.5pp42.6%

Break Pts Saved64.0%+4.6pp59.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.7%+2.1pp50.6%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

66.5%1st Serve In+6.6pp59.9%

67.7%1st Serve Won+1.0pp66.7%

48.8%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp47.2%

2.5Aces / Match—2.3

1.7Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

44.4%Return Pts Won+2.1pp42.3%

Pressure · 2–0

49.1%Break Pts Converted+6.5pp42.6%

64.0%Break Pts Saved+4.6pp59.4%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won+2.1pp50.6%