United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Gus GrumetUnited States0Daniil Ostapenkov #556Belarus2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 23:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Gus Grumet

United States

Reliable public biographical and ranking details were not available from the required research. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

Listed at No. 556 in the supplied player data and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Reliable public age and career-high details were not available from the required research.

Current ranking: #556
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Ostapenkov's elite hard-court record and powerful serve make him the favorite, but his recent retirement adds risk.

The total aces over 7.5 is the strongest betting angle, while the match winner market offers little value at 1.18.

Context

Ostapenkov, 556th in the ATP rankings, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has played mostly hard-court Challengers this season.
His most recent match ended 3-1 retired against Egor Agafonov, and there is no later result to confirm he is fully fit. That makes his physical condition the main unknown for this first-round qualifier. If he is still affected, Grumet could face a less mobile opponent, but if the retirement was precautionary, Ostapenkov's hard-court form remains competitive.
- On 2026-08-09, Ostapenkov lost 3-1 ret. to Egor Agafonov in the first round of tournament 21930.
- No matches are listed for Ostapenkov after that retirement, leaving his current fitness unconfirmed.
Grumet, an unranked American, has played a mix of hard and clay events in 2026 and holds a 56.4% career win rate.
Grumet's last-15 hard-court record is 6-4 with a 50.8% games won rate, while Ostapenkov's overall last-15 record is 9-6 but his return points won is only 38.5%. Grumet's return points won on hard courts is 39.6%, nearly identical, but his break point save rate of 66.7% is much higher than Ostapenkov's 49.1%. This suggests Grumet may be slightly more reliable in tight service games, though the sample sizes are small.
- Grumet's last 15 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 4 losses, 50.8% games won.
- Ostapenkov's last 15 overall matches: 9 wins, 6 losses, 53.5% games won, but return points won only 38.5%.
- Grumet's hard-court break point save rate is 66.7% vs Ostapenkov's 49.1% overall.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Daniil Ostapenkov

1.18fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Ostapenkov's superior hard-court pedigree and stronger serve metrics give him the edge over Grumet, despite similar recent form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Ostapenkov's superior hard-court pedigree and stronger serve metrics give him the edge over Grumet, despite similar recent form.
- Ostapenkov has a 60% win rate in last 15 matches (9-6), all on hard courts.
- Grumet has a 60% win rate in last 15 matches (10-5), but only 6-4 on hard courts in that window.
- Ostapenkov's career hard-court record is 135-19 (87.7%), while Grumet is 13-8 (61.9%) on hard courts in 2026.
- Ostapenkov has a higher first-serve points won rate (72.8%) than Grumet (62.8%) in last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil OstapenkovEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average games per match for both players exceeds 21.5, indicating a likely longer match.
- Grumet's last 15 matches average 23.2 games per match (348 games / 15 matches).
- Ostapenkov's last 15 matches average 20.2 games per match (303 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar games won percentages (53.2% for Grumet, 53.5% for Ostapenkov), suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The average set length for both players is near 9.5, making the over a coin flip.
- Grumet's average games per set in last 15 matches is 9.9 (348 games / 35 sets).
- Ostapenkov's average games per set in last 15 matches is 9.5 (303 games / 32 sets).
- Both players have similar games won percentages, suggesting close sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ostapenkov's stronger serve and overall set win rate make him a slight favorite to take the opening set.
- Ostapenkov has won 62.5% of sets in last 15 matches, while Grumet has won 60%.
- Ostapenkov's first-serve points won rate is 72.8%, compared to Grumet's 62.8%.
- Grumet's first-set win conversion is 86%, but his recent hard-court form is weaker (6-4).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniil OstapenkovEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ostapenkov's high ace count alone should push the combined total over 7.5, even if Grumet contributes few aces.
- Ostapenkov averages 6.7 aces per match in last 15 matches.
- Grumet averages only 1.0 ace per match in last 15 matches.
- Ostapenkov's ace rate is significantly higher than Grumet's, likely pushing the total over 7.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 2 double faults per match, making the over 4.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Ostapenkov averages 2.8 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
- Grumet averages 2.2 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 5.0 double faults per match, slightly above the 4.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Gus Grumet

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#754Evan Bynoe

6-4 4-6 12-10—William Zhang

6-4 6-4—Adrian Sharma

6-3 6-3—Aadarsh Tripathi

7-6(1) 6-4—Nathaniel Suh

6-3 6-4#586Kaylan Bigun

7-6(6) 6-3#898Tristan Stringer

3-6 6-3 7-5—Christopher Papa

0-6 7-6(7) 10-2—Matic Kriznik

6-1 6-2—Brian Zerwes Tremblay

6-4 6-2—Daniel Uta

3-6 6-4 6-4#837Johan Alexander Rodriguez

6-0 6-0—Tomas Laukys

2-6 7-6(4) 10-5—Alexis Gurmendi

6-3 6-0#1895Umberto Giovannini

Daniil Ostapenkov

9W 6L

3-1 ret.#670Egor Agafonov

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-1#303Florent Bax

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

7-6(6) 6-3#483Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-1#681Yurii Dzhavakian

6-2 6-4#352Tiago Torres

6-4 6-3#360Lui Maxted

6-3 7-5—Rohan Mehra

6-3 3-6 6-3#296Carl Emil Overbeck

6-4 6-4#355Tiago Pereira

6-4 6-4—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-1 6-4#305Yanki Erel

6-1 7-5#587Robin Catry

6-2 6-4—Daniil Sarksian

6-2 6-0—Adam Kaczmarek

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GGGus GrumetGrumet

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Daniil OstapenkovOstapenkovDO

Gus Grumet carries the stronger recent form — Daniil Ostapenkov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In10/15 · 15/1562.1%+2.1pp60.0%

1st Serve Won10/15 · 15/1562.8%+10.0pp72.8%

2nd Serve Won10/15 · 15/1548.0%+7.3pp55.3%

Aces / Match10/15 · 15/151.0+5.76.7

Double Faults / Match10/15 · 15/152.20.6 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won10/15 · 15/1544.4%+5.9pp38.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted10/15 · 15/1549.3%+7.8pp41.5%

Break Pts Saved10/15 · 15/1560.7%+11.6pp49.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won10/15 · 15/1550.7%+1.0pp51.7%

Serve · 2–3

62.1%1st Serve In10/15 · 15/15+2.1pp60.0%

62.8%1st Serve Won10/15 · 15/15+10.0pp72.8%

48.0%2nd Serve Won10/15 · 15/15+7.3pp55.3%

1.0Aces / Match10/15 · 15/15+5.76.7

2.2Double Faults / Match10/15 · 15/150.6 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

44.4%Return Pts Won10/15 · 15/15+5.9pp38.5%

Pressure · 2–0

49.3%Break Pts Converted10/15 · 15/15+7.8pp41.5%

60.7%Break Pts Saved10/15 · 15/15+11.6pp49.1%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won10/15 · 15/15+1.0pp51.7%