ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Gabriele Bosio #693Italy0Gerard Campana Lee #585South Korea2

Sets 3-6 · 1-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGerard Campana Lee · 108 places

Gabriele Bosio

Italy

Bosio, 25, is a right-hander. Public profile data lists a career-best singles ranking of No. 671; his 2026 record includes matches on both clay and hard courts.

Current ranking: #693
Peak ranking: #671
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Gerard Campana Lee

South Korea

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 318 on June 24, 2024. His professional schedule and results are predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #585
Peak ranking: #318 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Campana Lee is the likely winner based on ranking and recent clay form, but his odds of 1.14 are a trap with a -25.7 point edge against the model.

Bosio's momentum and longer matches make the over 21.5 total games a lean, though confidence is low. Avoid the heavy favorite and look for value in totals.

Context

Campana Lee, ranked 541, is a clay-court specialist with 123 career wins on the surface.
His 66.7% win rate in the last 15 matches on clay is better than Bosio's 53.3%, and he has also won a higher percentage of sets and games. However, Bosio's recent form includes a run to the quarterfinals of a Challenger last week, so the gap is not large.
- Campana Lee's last 15 clay matches: 10 wins, 5 losses (66.7% win rate).
- Bosio's last 15 clay matches: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3% win rate).
- Campana Lee has won 60.6% of sets and 55% of games in that span, compared to Bosio's 51.4% and 50.6%.
Bosio, ranked 693, is a right-hander who has played 15 matches in the last month.
He reached the quarterfinals of a Challenger on September 6, playing five matches in six days, with three going the distance. That workload could affect his energy in this early-round match, especially against a fresher opponent.
- Bosio's recent matches: Sep 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 (five matches in six days).
- Three of those matches went to three sets, including a 5-7 6-4 6-3 loss on Sep 6.
- Campana Lee last played on Sep 8, giving him more recovery time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Gerard Campana Lee

1.14fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

Campana Lee has a stronger recent form and ranking edge on clay, making him the likely winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Campana Lee has a stronger recent form and ranking edge on clay, making him the likely winner.
- Last 15 overall record: Campana Lee 10-5 (66.7%) vs Bosio 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: Campana Lee 10-5 (66.7%) vs Bosio 8-7 (53.3%)
- Campana Lee ranking 541 vs Bosio 693
- Campana Lee last 5: W-W-L-W-L; Bosio last 5: L-W-W-W-W
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGerard Campana LeeEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bosio's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, pushing total games over the line.
- Bosio last 15 average total games per match: 23.7
- Campana Lee last 15 average total games per match: 20.1
- Bosio has played 8 three-set matches in last 15; Campana Lee 5
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive first sets, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Bosio set 1 average games in last 15: 9.7
- Campana Lee set 1 average games in last 15: 9.1
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Campana Lee's superior first-serve effectiveness and recent set-winning rate give him a slight edge in set 1.
- Campana Lee first set win rate in last 15: 10/15 (66.7%)
- Bosio first set win rate in last 15: 8/15 (53.3%)
- Campana Lee firstServePointsWon 69% vs Bosio 62.3% in last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonGerard Campana LeeEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages sit right at the line, giving a coin-flip chance for over 3.5 aces.
- Campana Lee aces per match last 15: 2.2
- Bosio aces per match last 15: 1.3
- Combined average aces per match: 3.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average slightly exceeds the line, making over 4.5 a near-even proposition.
- Bosio double faults per match last 15: 2.8
- Campana Lee double faults per match last 15: 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Campana Lee is a trap because his recent form does not justify such a low payout, and Bosio's current momentum makes the match closer than the odds suggest.

Gabriele Bosio

8W 7L

5-7 6-4 6-3#751Manuel Mazza

2-6 6-3 6-4—Lorenzo Berto

5-7 6-4 6-4#899Blu Baker

6-0 6-0—Matteo Sabbatini

7-6(5) 7-5—Filippo Mazzola

6-3 4-6 6-4—Denis Constantin Spiridon

6-2 7-6(1)#774Rares Teodor Pieleanu

2-6 6-4 6-2#846Francesco Ferrari

4-6 6-3 6-3#859Giannicola Misasi

7-6(5) 6-4#766Radu David Turcanu

6-2 6-1#595Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-3 6-3—Luca Parenti

3-6 6-1 7-5—William Mirarchi

7-6(6) 6-2#793Luca Castagnola

7-6(6) 6-1#886Tomas Lanik

Gerard Campana Lee

10W 5L

6-1 7-5#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#389Jonas Forejtek

6-2 6-3#482Lorenzo Carboni

6-2 7-5#900Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-4—Valentin Basel

3-6 6-2 6-1—Jiri Cizek

7-6(2) 6-3#508Alex Marti Pujolras

5-7 7-5 6-2#634Theo Papamalamis

6-3 6-3#707Franco Ribero

6-1 6-1#372Gabriele Piraino

5-7 7-5 6-1#402Samuele Pieri

6-0 6-2#898Pietro Marino

6-3 6-2#668Stefan Horia Haita

6-1 6-3#1377Vladislav Melnic

6-1 ret.#732Jakub Nicod

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GBGabriele BosioBosio

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Gerard Campana LeeLeeGL

Gerard Campana Lee carries the stronger recent form — Gabriele Bosio's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.9%+5.3pp56.6%

1st Serve Won62.3%+6.7pp69.0%

2nd Serve Won50.0%—49.4%

Aces / Match1.3+0.92.2

Double Faults / Match2.80.9 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.7%+0.9pp43.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.4%+1.4pp47.0%

Break Pts Saved50.4%+6.3pp56.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+2.1pp52.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.9%1st Serve In+5.3pp56.6%

62.3%1st Serve Won+6.7pp69.0%

50.0%2nd Serve Won—49.4%

1.3Aces / Match+0.92.2

2.8Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

42.7%Return Pts Won+0.9pp43.6%

Pressure · 1–1

48.4%Break Pts Converted+1.4pp47.0%

50.4%Break Pts Saved+6.3pp56.7%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+2.1pp52.0%