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Predictions graded

Daisuke Sumizawa #896Japan0Kousuke Ogura #821Japan2

Sets 6-7 · 6-7Sun 13 Sept 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKosuke Ogura · 75 places

Daisuke Sumizawa

Japan

A 175cm right-hander, Sumizawa lists hard as his preferred surface. His recorded best singles ranking is No. 687.

Current ranking: #896
Peak ranking: #687
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Kosuke Ogura

Japan

Ogura, 30, is a 170cm right-hander. His best singles ranking is No. 641.

Current ranking: #821
Peak ranking: #641
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Sumizawa has a slight edge from H2H and serve metrics, but both players are in similar poor form.

The best betting angle is over 21.5 total games, given their recent match lengths and history of long encounters.

Context

Sumizawa, 896th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has spent most of his career on hard courts.
His recent hard-court record is 5-8, but his wins have come against unranked or lower-ranked players. Ogura's 7-8 record includes wins over players ranked inside the top 300, suggesting his form may be more battle-tested.
- Sumizawa's last 15 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 8 losses.
- Ogura's last 15 hard-court matches: 7 wins, 8 losses.
- Ogura beat Matthew Dellavedova (ranked 293) in August; Sumizawa's best recent win was against unranked Vraj Gohil.
The two Japanese players have met three times, all on hard courts.
Sumizawa won their most recent meeting 6-1 5-7 7-6(9) in April 2025, showing he can edge Ogura in close matches. However, the sample is small and the matches span several years, so the edge is not decisive.
- 2025-04-23: Sumizawa def. Ogura 6-1 5-7 7-6(9).
- 2021-09-30: Ogura def. Sumizawa 6-2 3-6 6-2.
- 2018-10-06: Sumizawa def. Ogura 6-3 6-2.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight edge from H2H and serve metrics, but both are low-ranked with similar recent form, so confidence is low.
- H2H: Sumizawa leads 2-1, including a 2025 three-set win on hard.
- Last 15 overall: Sumizawa 6-9, Ogura 7-8; nearly identical games won % (48.2 vs 46.9).
- Sumizawa has stronger first-serve points won (71% vs 63.1%) and break point save (62.8% vs 50.5%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaisuke SumizawaEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average around 22 games, and their H2H history includes long matches, supporting over 21.5.
- Last 15 average total games per match: Sumizawa 22.0, Ogura 21.5.
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently (Sumizawa 4, Ogura 5 in last 15).
- H2H 2025 went three sets with 32 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean over based on average first-set games, but variance is high.
- Sumizawa last 15 first sets average 9.4 games; Ogura 9.3 games.
- Both have had multiple first sets with 10+ games in recent matches.
- H2H 2025 first set was 7 games, but 2021 first set was 8 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
No strong first-set edge, but Sumizawa's recent first-set dominance in wins and H2H gives a marginal lean.
- Sumizawa first set win conversion career 86%, Ogura 88%.
- Sumizawa won first set in 4 of last 5 wins; Ogura in 5 of last 7 wins.
- H2H 2025: Sumizawa won first set 6-1.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaisuke SumizawaEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault average is at the line, but both players have moderate DF rates, leaning under.
- Sumizawa averages 2.6 double faults per match (last 10).
- Ogura averages 1.9 double faults per match (last 14).
- Combined average ~4.5 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

W6-1 5-7 7-6(9)Daisuke Sumizawa#896vKousuke Ogura#821Apr 23, 2025

L6-2 3-6 6-2Daisuke Sumizawa#896vKousuke Ogura#821Sep 30, 2021

W6-3 6-2Daisuke Sumizawa#896vKousuke Ogura#821Oct 6, 2018

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Daisuke Sumizawa

6W 9L

7-5 6-3—Markus Malaszszak

6-2 6-4—Vraj Gohil

6-1 6-4#612Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(3) 6-1—Chikaya Sato

6-1 6-3—Xin Zhou

6-4 6-7(2) 10-7—Ryuichiro Nakano

6-2 2-6 6-4—Donghyun Hwang

6-3 6-1#856Ryotaro Taguchi

6-4 7-6(4)#365Jake Delaney

7-6(3) 6-2—Riku Takahata

7-6(5) 6-1—Haruto Ishikawa

7-6(3) 6-4—Riku Takahata

6-3 6-2—Nuutti Jokinen

6-3 5-7 10-4—Yuto Oki

6-1 6-4—Riku Takahata

Kousuke Ogura

7W 8L

7-6(2) 6-3#675Seongchan Hong

6-4 6-4#587Robin Catry

6-1 2-6 6-2#305Yanki Erel

6-3 6-3#408Omar Jasika

3-6 6-3 10-7#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

6-1 6-3—Tzu-Yuan Tseng

6-3 6-1#518Hiroki Moriya

7-6(3) 6-2#408Omar Jasika

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#293Matthew Dellavedova

7-5 6-2#882Duckhee Lee

1-6 6-0 2-1 ret.#880Mikalai Haliak

3-6 7-5 3-0 ret.#892Yuta Kikuchi

7-5 6-1—Taiki Takizawa

6-3 6-2#821Jeremy Beale

6-3 1-6 6-1#408Omar Jasika

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DSDaisuke SumizawaSumizawa

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Kousuke OguraOguraKO

Kousuke Ogura carries the stronger recent form — Daisuke Sumizawa's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In10/15 · 14/1556.3%—56.7%

1st Serve Won10/15 · 14/1571.0%+7.9pp63.1%

2nd Serve Won10/15 · 14/1547.2%+3.0pp50.2%

Aces / Match10/15 · 14/154.9+3.31.6

Double Faults / Match10/15 · 14/152.60.7 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won10/15 · 14/1534.6%+3.0pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted10/15 · 14/1538.0%+4.5pp42.5%

Break Pts Saved10/15 · 14/1562.8%+12.3pp50.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won10/15 · 14/1548.3%—47.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

56.3%1st Serve In10/15 · 14/15—56.7%

71.0%1st Serve Won10/15 · 14/15+7.9pp63.1%

47.2%2nd Serve Won10/15 · 14/15+3.0pp50.2%

4.9Aces / Match10/15 · 14/15+3.31.6

2.6Double Faults / Match10/15 · 14/150.7 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

34.6%Return Pts Won10/15 · 14/15+3.0pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

38.0%Break Pts Converted10/15 · 14/15+4.5pp42.5%

62.8%Break Pts Saved10/15 · 14/15+12.3pp50.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.3%Total Pts Won10/15 · 14/15—47.7%