MexicoWTA GuadalajaraFinished

Predictions graded

Carole Monnet #196France2Katrina Scott #242United States1

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 6-2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 16:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCarole Monnet · 46 places

Carole Monnet

France

French player, born 1 December 2001, with a WTA-listed career-high singles ranking of No. 158 in November 2025. The ITF profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current fitness concern surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #196
Peak ranking: #158
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Katrina Scott

United States

Scott is a 22-year-old American listed at No. 242 by the WTA in August 2026. Her WTA ranking history records a best year-end position of No. 149 in 2022; no reliable current availability concern was found.

Current ranking: #242
Peak ranking: #149
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Katrina Scott holds a slight edge over Carole Monnet due to superior second serve and hard-court point metrics, but the match is expected to be close.

Betting value lies in over 20.5 total games and over 7.5 double faults, while the match winner market on Scott at 1.55 offers negative value.

Context

Monnet, ranked 196, is a clay-court specialist with a career win rate of 54.7%, but her recent hard-court results have been mixed.
In her last 15 matches, Monnet has won just 35.5% of second-serve points and averaged 6.3 double faults per match. On hard courts, those numbers worsen to 34.5% and 7.5 double faults. Scott, who returns at 42.3% overall, can pressure Monnet's second serve and create break chances.
- Monnet's last 15 overall: second-serve points won 35.5%, double faults per match 6.3.
- Monnet's last 4 hard-court matches: second-serve points won 34.5%, double faults per match 7.5.
- Scott's last 15 overall: return points won 42.3%.
Scott, ranked 245, has a powerful serve and a career hard-court win rate of 56%, but her recent results have been up and down.
Scott's last 12 hard-court matches show a 50% record, but her wins came against opponents ranked 115, 167, 178, 365, 467, and 896. Her losses were to players ranked 101, 181, 207, 307, 431, and 768. Monnet, ranked 196, sits in the middle of that range, so this match is likely to be competitive.
- Scott's last 12 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 6 losses.
- Scott's wins: opponents ranked 115, 167, 178, 365, 467, 896.
- Scott's losses: opponents ranked 101, 181, 207, 307, 431, 768.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Katrina Scott

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Scott's stronger second serve and slightly better hard-court point metrics give her a narrow edge in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Scott's stronger second serve and slightly better hard-court point metrics give her a narrow edge in this Bo3 match.
- Katrina Scott has a 50% win rate on hard courts in her last 12 matches, with a 50.2% total points won.
- Carole Monnet has a 50% win rate on hard courts in her last 4 matches, with a 48.3% total points won.
- Scott's first serve points won on hard is 65.2% vs Monnet's 64.5%.
- Scott's second serve points won on hard is 47.2% vs Monnet's 34.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKatrina ScottEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent match lengths and competitive profiles suggest a match likely to exceed 20.5 games.
- Monnet's last 15 matches average 20.5 games per match (307 games / 15 matches).
- Scott's last 15 matches average 18.1 games per match (271 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar overall win rates (46.7%) and competitive recent matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve and forcing extended games.
- Monnet's recent hard-court matches average 11.0 games per set (88 games / 8 sets).
- Scott's recent hard-court matches average 9.0 games per set (215 games / 24 sets).
- Both players have had multiple tight sets in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Scott's slightly better first-set conversion and serve metrics on hard courts support a narrow edge in set 1.
- Scott's first set win conversion is 85% career, Monnet's is 82%.
- Scott's hard-court first serve points won is 65.2% vs Monnet's 64.5%.
- Scott's recent hard-court record is 6-6, Monnet's is 2-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKatrina ScottEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monnet's high double fault rate on hard courts drives the total double faults over 7.5.
- Monnet averages 7.5 double faults per match on hard courts in her last 4 matches.
- Scott averages 1.8 double faults per match on hard courts in her last 12 matches.
- Combined average double faults per match is approximately 9.3 on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates on hard courts suggest a reasonable chance of exceeding 3.5 total aces.
- Scott averages 2.9 aces per match on hard courts in her last 12 matches.
- Monnet averages 1.8 aces per match on hard courts in her last 4 matches.
- Combined average aces per match is approximately 4.7 on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Carole Monnet

7W 8L

7-5 6-2#848Julia Garcia

6-4 7-6(4)#229Anouk Koevermans

7-6(4) 6-3#107Kaitlin Quevedo

7-6(1) 7-5#256Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-1 6-3#322Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 3-1 ret.#326Jessica Pieri

6-0 6-2#29Barbora Krejcikova

4-6 6-2 7-6(10)#180Rebeka Masarova

6-2 6-4#163Tatiana Prozorova

6-3 6-1#80Xiyu Wang

7-5 7-6(5)#325Martina Trevisan

6-3 6-4#39Donna Vekic

1-6 6-2 6-1#145Leyre Romero Gormaz

1-6 6-4 6-3#163Tatiana Prozorova

6-3 6-2#222Alice Tubello

Katrina Scott

7W 8L

6-2 6-4#779Alexandra Panova

7-6(1) 6-1#181Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 6-1#207Katie Swan

6-2 6-1#178Yexin Ma

6-2 6-2#167Mai Hontama

6-2 6-1#101Anastasia Zakharova

6-4 6-3#115Elvina Kalieva

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#768Ellie Schoppe

6-1 6-1#896Sabastiani Leon

6-2 6-2#122Mary Stoiana

6-3 6-2#307Savannah Broadus

6-2 6-2#431Reese Brantmeier

7-6(2) 6-4#365Zuzanna Pawlikowska

6-1 6-4#212Madison Brengle

6-4 7-6(2)#467Maria Florencia Urrutia

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CMCarole MonnetMonnet

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Katrina ScottScottKS

Katrina Scott carries the stronger recent form — Carole Monnet's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In63.2%+3.0pp66.2%

1st Serve Won59.1%+2.9pp62.0%

2nd Serve Won35.5%+8.5pp44.0%

Aces / Match1.1+1.42.5

Double Faults / Match6.34.5 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.4%+4.1pp42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.5%+0.8pp47.7%

Break Pts Saved48.6%+10.0pp58.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.5%+0.8pp49.3%

Serve · 0–5

63.2%1st Serve In+3.0pp66.2%

59.1%1st Serve Won+2.9pp62.0%

35.5%2nd Serve Won+8.5pp44.0%

1.1Aces / Match+1.42.5

6.3Double Faults / Match4.5 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

46.4%Return Pts Won+4.1pp42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

48.5%Break Pts Converted+0.8pp47.7%

48.6%Break Pts Saved+10.0pp58.6%

Points · 0–1

48.5%Total Pts Won+0.8pp49.3%