ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Alexandr Binda #552Russia2Kaito Uesugi #897Japan0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Sun 13 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexandr Binda · 345 places

Alexandr Binda

Russia

Binda, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in August 2025. No direct preferred-surface designation was found in the checked public profiles.

Current ranking: #552
Peak ranking: #368 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Kaito Uesugi

Japan

Uesugi, 31, is right-handed and 180 cm. His listed preferred surface is hard; his career-high singles ranking was No. 650 in August 2018.

Current ranking: #897
Peak ranking: #650 · 2018
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Binda's superior hard-court form, return game, and ranking make him a strong favorite.

Expect a straight-set win with under 21.5 total games. The moneyline at 1.29 offers a small value edge.

Context

Binda, ranked 552, has been more competitive on hard courts recently, with a 55.6% win rate in his last nine matches on the surface.
Uesugi has struggled badly on hard courts, winning only one of his last ten matches. Binda's superior recent results and higher ranking suggest he is better equipped to handle this matchup, though his own form is not dominant.
- Binda's last 15 hard-court record: 5 wins, 4 losses (55.6% win rate).
- Uesugi's last 15 hard-court record: 1 win, 9 losses (10% win rate).
- Binda is ranked 552, Uesugi is ranked 897.
Uesugi's return game has been a weakness, with a 36.2% return points won rate on hard courts over his last 10 matches.
Binda's first serve has been effective on hard courts, winning 70.4% of points behind it. Uesugi's low return numbers suggest he will struggle to create break opportunities, giving Binda a clear edge in service games.
- Uesugi's hard-court return points won: 36.2% (266/735) in last 10 matches.
- Binda's hard-court first serve points won: 70.4% (252/358) in last 9 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Binda has a clear recent-form and surface-fit edge on hard courts, with much stronger return numbers and a higher ranking.
- Binda last 15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%), Uesugi 2-13 (13.3%)
- Binda last 15 hard record 5-4 (55.6%), Uesugi 1-9 (10%)
- Binda ranking 552 vs Uesugi 897
- Binda last 15 return points won 42.6%, Uesugi 36.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's dominant recent hard-court wins and Uesugi's poor form suggest a relatively quick match with fewer games.
- Binda last 15 hard average games per match: 19.1 (172/9)
- Uesugi last 15 hard average games per match: 21.9 (219/10)
- Binda recent hard wins: 6-3 6-1, 6-1 6-1, 6-4 6-2
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's superior hard-court game percentage and recent dominant wins support a handicap cover.
- Binda last 15 hard games won 54.1%, Uesugi 42.0%
- Binda average games won per hard match: 10.3, Uesugi 9.2
- Binda recent hard wins by margins of 8, 10, and 6 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlexandr Binda -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's strong starts in recent hard matches could lead to a shorter first set.
- Binda last 15 hard first set average games: 9.0
- Uesugi last 15 hard first set average games: 9.4
- Binda's recent hard first sets: 6-3, 6-1, 6-4
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's stronger hard-court serve and break-point saving should give him the edge in the opening set.
- Binda last 15 hard first serve points won 70.4%, Uesugi 65.4%
- Binda last 15 hard break points saved 66.1%, Uesugi 50.0%
- Binda career first set win conversion 88%, Uesugi 77%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's superior hard-court form and Uesugi's struggles make a straight-set victory likely.
- Binda last 15 hard sets won 55.6%, Uesugi 21.7%
- Uesugi last 15 hard record 1-9, with only one straight-set win
- Binda has won 5 of last 9 hard matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAlexandr Binda 2-0Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The form gap suggests Binda can finish in straight sets, keeping total sets under 2.5.
- Binda last 15 hard straight-set win rate: 5 of 9 matches
- Uesugi last 15 hard straight-set loss rate: 7 of 10 matches
- Binda's recent hard wins: 6-3 6-1, 6-1 6-1, 6-4 6-2
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's recent hard-court matches have been decisive, reducing the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Binda career tiebreak win percentage 47%, Uesugi 43%
- Binda last 15 hard matches: only 1 tiebreak in 9 matches
- Uesugi last 15 hard matches: 3 tiebreaks in 10 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 7.5 total aces, though confidence is limited.
- Binda last 15 hard aces per match 4.0, Uesugi 2.9
- Combined average aces per match on hard: 6.9
- Both players have first serve percentages around 60%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Uesugi's high double fault rate pushes the combined total above the line, but variance is high.
- Binda last 15 hard double faults per match 3.2, Uesugi 4.7
- Combined average double faults per match on hard: 7.9
- Uesugi's double fault rate is notably high
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Alexandr Binda

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-2#370Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#880Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-1—Cheng-Peng Hsieh

6-3 6-2#466Khumoun Sultanov

7-5 7-5#343Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 6-2#775Mert Naci Turker

6-4 6-2#569Sidharth Rawat

6-3 6-4—S Mert Ozdemir

7-5 6-4#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 5-7 6-2#841Adrian Andreev

7-6(3) 3-6 6-4#554Matyas Fuele

7-5 6-3—Aaron Gil Garcia

5-7 6-3 6-4#896David Poljak

6-2 3-6 6-2#514Reda Bennani

7-5 7-5#900Amaury Raynel

Kaito Uesugi

2W 13L

6-2 7-5#768Ji Sung Nam

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-4#483Koki Matsuda

6-4 6-3#488Luca Potenza

6-1 3-6 6-3#572Maxime Janvier

0-6 6-2 6-2#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-7(5) 6-1 6-2#763Uisung Park

6-3 6-3#398Masamichi Imamura

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#486Kasidit Samrej

7-6(7) 6-3#629Ramkumar Ramanathan

6-1 6-7(4) 3-2 ret.#628Tsung-Hao Huang

6-2 6-3#897James Watt

6-4 7-6(3)#276Philip Henning

6-3 6-3#343Lucas Poullain

6-2 6-2#270Hynek Barton

6-3 6-2#159Clement Tabur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAlexandr BindaBinda

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Kaito UesugiUesugiKU

Alexandr Binda carries the stronger recent form — Kaito Uesugi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.9%+1.6pp60.3%

1st Serve Won66.3%+1.4pp64.9%

2nd Serve Won44.3%+1.5pp45.8%

Aces / Match3.6+0.33.9

Double Faults / Match3.40.5 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.6%+6.6pp36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.7%+11.7pp30.0%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+1.9pp52.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.2%+3.3pp46.9%

Serve · 3–2

61.9%1st Serve In+1.6pp60.3%

66.3%1st Serve Won+1.4pp64.9%

44.3%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp45.8%

3.6Aces / Match+0.33.9

3.4Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

42.6%Return Pts Won+6.6pp36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

41.7%Break Pts Converted+11.7pp30.0%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp52.6%

Points · 1–0

50.2%Total Pts Won+3.3pp46.9%