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Predictions graded

Harold Mayot #255France0Max Basing #248United Kingdom2

Sets 1-6 · 3-6Sat 12 Sept 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Basing · 7 places

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Max Basing

United Kingdom

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing information was thin. Use the structured form and match-stat sections as the main context.

Current ranking: #248
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 23:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayot's recent hard-court form and tournament momentum give him a slight edge, but the odds heavily favor him, creating value on Basing or the over.

Expect a competitive match with potential for three sets and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Mayot, 24, is a French right-hander ranked 267. He has a career 54.7% win rate and has been more successful on hard courts this season.
Mayot's last-15 hard-court record is 6-1 with a 75% set win rate, while Basing is 8-6 on hard courts in the same window. Mayot's recent wins include a straight-set victory over Gustavo Heide (ranked 128), showing he can beat higher-ranked players. Basing's hard-court losses have come against opponents ranked 171, 237, and 343, suggesting he may struggle against stronger opposition.
- Mayot's last-15 hard-court record: 6 wins, 1 loss (85.7% win rate).
- Basing's last-15 hard-court record: 8 wins, 6 losses (57.1% win rate).
- Mayot beat Gustavo Heide (ranked 128) 6-3 6-2 on hard court in August 2026.
- Basing lost to Joel Schwaerzler (ranked 171) and Charles Broom (ranked 237) on hard court in late August 2026.
Mayot and Basing are both on three-match winning streaks entering this semi-final.
Mayot's wins came against opponents ranked 382, 500, and 230, while Basing's wins came against opponents ranked 195, 300, and an unranked player. Mayot's wins include a victory over a top-230 player, while Basing's best win was against a top-200 player. Both players are playing with confidence, but Mayot's wins have come against slightly stronger opposition.
- Mayot's last three matches: wins over Dimitar Kuzmanov (382), Adrian Boitan (500), and Cezar Cretu (230).
- Basing's last three matches: wins over Edas Butvilas (195), Mert Alkaya (300), and Atakan Karahan (unranked).
- Mayot's average opponent ranking in those wins: 370.7; Basing's average opponent ranking: 247.5 (excluding unranked).
Basing, 22, is a British right-hander ranked 259. He has a career 67.9% win rate but has played only 165 matches.
Basing retired at 2-6 down against Antoine Ghibaudo on August 7, 2026. He has since completed five matches, including three wins this week, suggesting the issue may not be severe. However, any recent retirement can affect a player's confidence and physical readiness in a semi-final.
- Basing retired from a match against Antoine Ghibaudo on August 7, 2026, at 2-6.
- He has played five matches since then without retiring, including three wins in the current tournament.
- No current injury reports are available, but the retirement is within the last 30 days.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Harold Mayot

1.38fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Mayot's superior hard-court form in the recent window and current tournament momentum give him a slight edge over Basing.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Mayot's superior hard-court form in the recent window and current tournament momentum give him a slight edge over Basing.
- Mayot last 15 on hard: 6-1 record, 75% sets won, 60.3% games won
- Mayot last 15 overall: 9-6 record, 52.7% games won
- Basing last 15 on hard: 8-6 record, 61.3% sets won, 53.8% games won
- Mayot has won 3 straight matches this tournament, all in straight sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average around 20-21 games, and a competitive semi-final could push the total over 21.5.
- Mayot last 15 average games per match: 20.7
- Basing last 15 average games per match: 20.4
- Mayot last 15 on hard average games per match: 20.9
- Basing last 15 on hard average games per match: 20.4
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players tend to be close, with both averaging over 9 games per set.
- Mayot last 15 first set average games: 9.3
- Basing last 15 first set average games: 9.5
- Mayot last 15 on hard first set average games: 9.4
- Basing last 15 on hard first set average games: 9.6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also been competitive, with both players averaging over 9 games.
- Mayot last 15 second set average games: 9.1
- Basing last 15 second set average games: 9.3
- Mayot last 15 on hard second set average games: 9.2
- Basing last 15 on hard second set average games: 9.4
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mayot's stronger hard-court game percentage suggests he could cover a -1.5 game handicap.
- Mayot last 15 on hard games won percentage: 60.3%
- Basing last 15 on hard games won percentage: 53.8%
- Mayot last 15 overall games won percentage: 52.7%
- Basing last 15 overall games won percentage: 52.6%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostHarold Mayot -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have strong first-set records, but Mayot's recent straight-set wins suggest he starts fast.
- Mayot first set win conversion career: 89%
- Basing first set win conversion career: 90%
- Mayot won first set in last 3 matches
- Basing won first set in last 3 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mayot's higher ace rate could push the total over 6.5, especially if the match goes three sets.
- Mayot last 15 aces per match: 4.3
- Basing last 15 aces per match: 1.1
- Mayot last 15 on hard aces per match: 4.9
- Basing last 15 on hard aces per match: 1.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest a total over 4.5 is likely, especially in a longer match.
- Mayot last 15 double faults per match: 2.0
- Basing last 15 double faults per match: 2.9
- Mayot last 15 on hard double faults per match: 2.0
- Basing last 15 on hard double faults per match: 2.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Harold Mayot

9W 6L

6-4 6-2#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#500Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-4#230Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-4#156Daniil Glinka

3-6 6-3 6-4#803Max Purcell

6-3 6-2#128Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-2#900Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-7(6) 6-4#233Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 6-3#413Dylan Dietrich

6-4 6-3#410Mika Brunold

6-4 2-6 6-1#224Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-3#441Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-2 6-0#257Andrej Nedic

6-3 7-6(3)#238Alejandro Moro Canas

6-2 6-2#886Nicolas Moreno De Alboran

Max Basing

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#195Edas Butvilas

6-4 7-5#300Mert Alkaya

6-1 6-0—Atakan Karahan

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-2#237Charles Broom

7-6(3) 0-6 6-4#542Alec Deckers

6-3 6-4#473Christian Langmo

6-0 7-6(5)#343Lucas Poullain

6-2 ret.#356Antoine Ghibaudo

6-3 6-1#355Tiago Pereira

7-6(5) 6-1#384Lucio Ratti

0-6 7-6(7) 6-2#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-3 6-1#569Sidharth Rawat

3-6 6-3 6-4#506Dominik Palan

7-5 6-2#227Henry Searle

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHarold MayotMayot

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Max BasingBasingMB

Harold Mayot carries the stronger recent form — Max Basing's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.1%+2.6pp64.7%

1st Serve Won71.0%—70.9%

2nd Serve Won49.5%+2.4pp51.9%

Aces / Match4.3+3.21.1

Double Faults / Match2.00.9 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.3%+1.3pp39.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.1%+4.4pp32.7%

Break Pts Saved53.9%+4.0pp57.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.3%—51.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

62.1%1st Serve In+2.6pp64.7%

71.0%1st Serve Won—70.9%

49.5%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp51.9%

4.3Aces / Match+3.21.1

2.0Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

40.3%Return Pts Won+1.3pp39.0%

Pressure · 1–1

37.1%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp32.7%

53.9%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp57.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.3%Total Pts Won—51.4%