BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Chloe Paquet #297France2Martina Capurro Taborda #242Argentina1

Sets 7-5 · 1-6 · 6-2Sat 12 Sept 2026, 21:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartina Capurro Taborda · 55 places

Chloe Paquet

France

Reached No. 96 in August 2024 after entering the Top 100 for the first time. She is coached by Stéphane Charret and trains in Paris with the French Tennis Federation.

Current ranking: #297
Peak ranking: #96
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Martina Capurro Taborda

Argentina

Reached a career-high No. 149. Her 2023 season included five ITF titles and a WTA 125 quarterfinal in Florianópolis.

Current ranking: #242
Peak ranking: #149
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 15:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Capurro Taborda's superior recent form, clay-court record, and return/serve metrics give her a clear edge over the struggling Paquet.

Back Capurro Taborda on the moneyline at 2.40 for strong value, and consider over 7.5 total double faults.

Context

Capurro Taborda, 242nd, is a left-hander whose career is built on clay, with 256 of her 292 wins on that surface.
Her recent clay results are strong, but the move to hard court is a significant change. She has only two hard-court matches in the last 15, so her current level on this surface is uncertain. Paquet, though struggling overall, has more hard-court experience this season.
- Capurro Taborda's last 15 clay record: 8-5 (61.5%) with 13 matches tracked.
- Her last 15 hard-court record: 1-1 (50%) with only 2 matches tracked.
- Career surface wins: 256 on clay vs 26 on hard.
Chloe Paquet and Martina Capurro Taborda meet in the SP Open qualifying draw on 12 September, with Capurro Taborda seeded fifth.
This is a qualifying-round match on Court 2, so the winner advances toward a main-draw place while the loser exits the tournament. The seeding indicates Capurro Taborda is the higher-ranked player in this draw, but it does not change the match conditions or recent form.
- The 12 September programme lists Chloe Paquet vs [5] Martina Capurro Taborda on Court 2 after the 10:00 start.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 15:11 · Europe/BucharestSP Open qualifying programmespopenwta.com.br · 12 Sep 2026
Paquet, 297th, is a right-hander with a career win rate just under 50% and a clay-heavy schedule.
Her recent results show a clear downward trend, including a retirement against Lazaro Garcia in early August. That retirement raises a minor fitness question, but she has played multiple matches since without another withdrawal, so it may not be an active issue. Her form is a concern regardless of surface.
- Paquet's last 15 record: 5-10 (33.3%).
- She has lost 5 of her last 6 matches.
- She retired in a match on 2026-08-04 against Andrea Lazaro Garcia.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Capurro Taborda has a clear recent form and clay-surface edge, with stronger return and serve metrics.
- Last 15 overall record: Capurro Taborda 9-6 (60%) vs Paquet 5-10 (33%)
- Clay last 15: Capurro Taborda 8-5 (61.5%) vs Paquet 5-10 (33.3%)
- Capurro Taborda return points won 48.8% vs Paquet 46.6%
- Capurro Taborda first serve in 68.7% vs Paquet 60.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMartina Capurro TabordaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline and recent three-set tendencies suggest a match with over 20 games.
- Paquet average match duration 124.5 min, Capurro Taborda 116.6 min
- Paquet games won 46.8%, Capurro Taborda 53% in last 15
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been competitive, with both players averaging near 9.5 games.
- Paquet first set average games: 9.3 in last 15
- Capurro Taborda first set average games: 9.1 in last 15
- Both players have close first sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also been close, with averages near the line.
- Paquet second set average games: 9.7 in last 15
- Capurro Taborda second set average games: 9.5 in last 15
- Both players have had tight second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Capurro Taborda's superior set-winning rate and first-set conversion support taking the opening set.
- Capurro Taborda first set win conversion career 91% vs Paquet 80%
- Capurro Taborda last 15 sets won 55.9% vs Paquet 41.7%
- Capurro Taborda clay last 15 sets won 55.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMartina Capurro TabordaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, making over 7.5 likely.
- Paquet averages 4.8 double faults per match in last 15
- Capurro Taborda averages 3.8 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 8.6 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paquet's ace rate pushes the combined total above 2.5.
- Paquet averages 2.1 aces per match in last 15
- Capurro Taborda averages 0.5 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 2.6 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Close sets and similar tiebreak records suggest a tiebreak is possible.
- Paquet tiebreak win percentage 50% career
- Capurro Taborda tiebreak win percentage 49% career
- Several recent matches for both players included tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Chloe Paquet

5W 10L

3-6 6-1 6-3#551Valeriya Strakhova

6-2 7-6(6)#589Ariana Geerlings

6-1 6-3#290Rada Zolotareva

7-6(5) 5-4 ret.#142Andrea Lazaro Garcia

6-0 1-6 6-0#104Francesca Jones

1-6 6-4 6-4#204Arantxa Rus

6-3 4-6 6-2#551Valeriya Strakhova

5-7 6-2 6-4#484Valentina Ivanov

2-6 6-4 6-1#379Lia Karatancheva

6-1 6-3#231Justina Mikulskyte

6-0 6-3#161Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-4 6-1#384Julia Stusek

6-1 6-1#194Anastasiia Sobolieva

7-6(4) 6-1#302Britt Du Pree

6-1 7-6(3)#798Amy Sucha

Martina Capurro Taborda

9W 6L

4-6 6-2 7-5—Victoria Luiza Barros

6-2 6-0#842Maayan Laron

6-4 6-4#358Daria Egorova

6-1 6-3#667Berta Bonardi

6-4 2-6 7-6(4)#546Oceane Babel

7-6(2) 6-2#338Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

6-1 6-1#457Ana Candiotto

6-2 6-0#854Camila Romero

6-1 6-4#279Berfu Cengiz

6-4 6-2#188Despina Papamichail

6-2 6-2#194Anastasiia Sobolieva

7-6(5) 6-2#694Petra Sedlackova

6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-2#204Arantxa Rus

7-6(4) 6-1#275Mina Hodzic

6-3 2-6 6-4#314Carolina Meligeni Alves

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CPChloe PaquetPaquet

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Martina Capurro TabordaTabordaMT

Martina Capurro Taborda carries the stronger recent form — Chloe Paquet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.2%+8.5pp68.7%

1st Serve Won60.3%+3.0pp57.3%

2nd Serve Won39.7%+6.9pp46.6%

Aces / Match2.1+1.60.5

Double Faults / Match4.81.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won46.6%+2.2pp48.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.8%+4.4pp45.2%

Break Pts Saved55.4%+14.7pp40.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+1.9pp51.2%

Serve · 2–3

60.2%1st Serve In+8.5pp68.7%

60.3%1st Serve Won+3.0pp57.3%

39.7%2nd Serve Won+6.9pp46.6%

2.1Aces / Match+1.60.5

4.8Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

46.6%Return Pts Won+2.2pp48.8%

Pressure · 1–1

40.8%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp45.2%

55.4%Break Pts Saved+14.7pp40.7%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+1.9pp51.2%