ColombiaWTA BarranquillaFinished

Predictions graded

Leolia Jeanjean #119France0Claire Liu #116United States2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Fri 11 Sept 2026, 21:10 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClaire Liu · 3 places

Leolia Jeanjean

France

French right-hander born in August 1995. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 91 in August 2025, and the ITF player profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current, reliably sourced injury or withdrawal signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #119
Peak ranking: #91 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Claire Liu

United States

American right-hander born 25 May 2000. Her documented singles career high is No. 52; official WTA ranking history shows a substantial 2026 rise from outside the top 200 earlier in the season.

Current ranking: #116
Peak ranking: #52
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 15:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Claire Liu enters with better hard-court efficiency and tournament momentum, making her the slight favorite over Leolia Jeanjean.

Expect a competitive match with potential for over 21.5 total games and over 8.5 double faults, driven by Jeanjean's serving issues.

Context

Liu, 26, is ranked 111 and has a career hard-court win percentage of 59%. Jeanjean, 30, is ranked 127 and has a career hard-court win percentage of 62%.
Liu's recent hard-court results show more convincing wins, with a 57.5% games won rate compared to Jeanjean's 51.7%. However, Jeanjean has won 6 of her last 10 hard-court matches, so she remains competitive. The difference in games won suggests Liu may control rallies more effectively, but both players are capable of winning this match.
- Liu's last 6 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 2 losses, 57.5% games won.
- Jeanjean's last 10 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 4 losses, 51.7% games won.
- Liu's overall last 15 record is 10-5 (66.7%), while Jeanjean's is 9-6 (60%).
Jeanjean's career double fault rate is high, with 1600 double faults in 485 matches. Liu has a more reliable second serve, with a career second serve win rate of 46%.
Jeanjean's double fault rate on hard courts is more than double Liu's, which could hand Liu free points and break opportunities. Liu's second serve is also more effective, winning 53.8% of points compared to Jeanjean's 46.5%. This serve discrepancy may be decisive in close games.
- Jeanjean's hard-court double faults per match: 6.9 (last 10 matches).
- Liu's hard-court double faults per match: 3.2 (last 6 matches).
- Jeanjean's second serve points won on hard: 46.5%; Liu's: 53.8%.
Jeanjean is playing in her home region of South America and has a career win percentage of 62.1%. Liu has a career win percentage of 59% and is coached by Chris Tontz.
Both players are peaking at the right time, with Jeanjean winning her last three matches in straight sets or with a tiebreak, and Liu winning her last three in straight sets. This suggests a high-quality semi-final with both players confident. The winner may be decided by who handles the pressure of the semi-final better.
- Jeanjean's last 3 matches: W 6-1 7-6(4), W 7-6(5) 3-6 6-3, W 6-2 7-6(3).
- Liu's last 3 matches: W 7-5 6-1, W 6-3 6-3, W 7-5 6-0.
- Both players have won 3 consecutive matches at this tournament.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Claire Liu

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Liu's stronger recent hard-court efficiency and current tournament momentum give her a slight edge over Jeanjean's more inconsistent point-winning profile.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Liu's stronger recent hard-court efficiency and current tournament momentum give her a slight edge over Jeanjean's more inconsistent point-winning profile.
- Claire Liu last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Leolia Jeanjean 9-6 (60%)
- Liu hard-court last 15: 4-2 record, 57.5% games won, 54.3% total points won
- Jeanjean hard-court last 15: 6-4 record but only 51.7% games won, 50.9% total points won
- Liu has won 3 straight matches this tournament without dropping a set
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClaire LiuEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and competitive profiles support a match going over 21.5 total games.
- Jeanjean last 15 average total games per match: 23.9 (358 games / 15 matches)
- Liu last 15 average total games per match: 21.3 (319 games / 15 matches)
- Combined average suggests a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of extending it beyond 9.5 games.
- Jeanjean first set average games in last 15: 9.9
- Liu first set average games in last 15: 9.1
- Both players have had multiple tight first sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's efficiency edge makes a narrow handicap cover plausible, though the margin is small.
- Liu last 15 average games won per match: 11.6
- Jeanjean last 15 average games won per match: 12.1
- Liu's stronger recent point-winning percentage suggests she can cover a small handicap
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonClaire Liu -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's better first-set record and current form make her slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Liu first set win rate in last 15: 10 of 15 matches (66.7%)
- Jeanjean first set win rate in last 15: 8 of 15 matches (53.3%)
- Liu has won first set in all 3 matches this tournament
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClaire LiuEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean's high double fault rate drives the combined total well above 8.5, making the over likely.
- Jeanjean last 15 double faults per match: 6.7
- Liu last 15 double faults per match: 2.7
- Combined average double faults per match: 9.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a close call, but the over has a slight edge given Liu's higher ace count.
- Jeanjean last 15 aces per match: 2.1
- Liu last 15 aces per match: 3.3
- Combined average aces per match: 5.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Claire Liu has been highly reliable when projected to win

Claire Liu has fulfilled 8 of 8 win predictions, a 100% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 63.9%, with an expected 5.1 fulfilled predictions, indicating she has consistently outperformed expectations. All eight matches resulted in wins, with no losses or draws.

Recent evidence for Claire Liu8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 Jul·WTA Iasi

#146Claire Liu2-0#370Ipek Oz

BetBugsClaire Liu to win·72%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#146Claire Liu2-0#370Ipek Oz

Claire Liu to win

72%probability

Claire Liu won

Matched

12 Jul·WTA Iasi

#146Claire Liu2-0#461Maria Sara Popa

BetBugsClaire Liu to win·82%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#146Claire Liu2-0#461Maria Sara Popa

Claire Liu to win

82%probability

Claire Liu won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#145Claire Liu2-1#100Hanne Vandewinkel

BetBugsClaire Liu to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#145Claire Liu2-1#100Hanne Vandewinkel

Claire Liu to win

62%probability

Claire Liu won

Matched

25 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#145Claire Liu2-1#206Elena Pridankina

BetBugsClaire Liu to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#145Claire Liu2-1#206Elena Pridankina

Claire Liu to win

62%probability

Claire Liu won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#169Despina Papamichail0-2#145Claire Liu

BetBugsClaire Liu to win·62%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#169Despina Papamichail0-2#145Claire Liu

Claire Liu to win

62%probability

Claire Liu won

Matched

Leolia Jeanjean

9W 6L

6-1 7-6(4)#143Carol Young Suh Lee

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#288Julieta Pareja

6-2 7-6(3)#314Carolina Meligeni Alves

6-4 2-6 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova

7-6(6) 6-2#204Arantxa Rus

6-4 4-6 6-2#92Kamilla Rakhimova

6-2 6-4#119Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-2#144Himeno Sakatsume

7-5 6-3#41Magdalena Frech

2-6 6-2 6-3#173Lin Zhu

7-5 7-6(3)#52Mayar Sherif

3-6 6-3 6-4#222Alice Tubello

1-6 6-4 7-5#104Francesca Jones

6-4 6-3#321Amandine Monnot

6-4 6-3#45Daria Snigur

Claire Liu

10W 5L

7-5 6-1#107Kaitlin Quevedo

6-3 6-3#181Varvara Lepchenko

7-5 6-0#206Xiaodi You

4-6 6-2 6-4#446Heather Watson

6-4 6-3#90Sinja Kraus

6-4 6-2#160Polina Iatcenko

7-5 6-2#84Yulia Putintseva

6-4 6-1#406Ipek Oz

6-3 6-4#399Maria Sara Popa

7-5 6-0#90Sinja Kraus

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#4Cori Gauff

7-5 6-3#53Zeynep Sonmez

4-6 6-3 6-4#81Hanne Vandewinkel

6-2 4-6 6-1#186Elena Pridankina

6-4 6-4#107Kaitlin Quevedo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LJLeolia JeanjeanJeanjean

Last 15

0–6

9 core stats · 3 even

Claire LiuLiuCL

Claire Liu carries the stronger recent form — Leolia Jeanjean's route runs through 1st serve won.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.6%+10.4pp66.0%

1st Serve Won65.6%—65.2%

2nd Serve Won46.3%+4.8pp51.1%

Aces / Match2.1+1.23.3

Double Faults / Match6.74.0 fewer2.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won43.6%—44.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted45.4%+4.1pp49.5%

Break Pts Saved56.0%—56.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.9pp52.3%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

55.6%1st Serve In+10.4pp66.0%

65.6%1st Serve Won—65.2%

46.3%2nd Serve Won+4.8pp51.1%

2.1Aces / Match+1.23.3

6.7Double Faults / Match4.0 fewer2.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

43.6%Return Pts Won—44.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

45.4%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp49.5%

56.0%Break Pts Saved—56.4%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.9pp52.3%