Tung-Lin Wu #369Taiwan00 – 2Luca Castelnuovo #455Switzerland2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combined recent match lengths and frequency of three-set contests suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

• Wu's last-15 hard-court matches average 22.4 total games per match (183 games won + 174 games lost over 14 matches).
• Castelnuovo's last-15 hard-court matches average 24.1 total games per match (108 games won + 109 games lost over 9 matches).
• Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently: Wu has 4 three-setters in his last 15, Castelnuovo has 5 in his last 15.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The recent first-set game counts for both players trend above 9.5, supporting an over on the first-set total.

• Wu's last-15 hard-court first sets average 10.2 games (based on parsed set scores).
• Castelnuovo's last-15 hard-court first sets average 10.4 games.
• Both players have been involved in tiebreaks or 7-5 first sets in recent matches, indicating tight opening sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Castelnuovo's tendency to bounce back in the second set, especially after dropping the first, gives him a slight edge in set 2.

• Castelnuovo has won the second set in 3 of his last 5 hard-court matches, including a 7-6(7) second set against Tseng.
• Wu has lost the second set in 2 of his last 5 hard-court matches, including a 4-6 second set against Sun.
• Castelnuovo's second-set performance often improves after losing the first set, as seen in his comeback win over Tseng.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Castelnuovo's high ace rate and Wu's steady contribution make the combined ace total likely to exceed 10.5.

• Castelnuovo averages 7.8 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15, with a high of 9 aces per match on grass.
• Wu averages 3.9 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15.
• Combined, their recent hard-court ace averages total 11.7 per match, above the 10.5 line.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Castelnuovo's high double-fault rate, combined with Wu's moderate rate, makes the over on total double faults a reasonable play.

• Castelnuovo averages 3.8 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 15.
• Wu averages 2.0 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 15.
• Combined, their recent hard-court double-fault averages total 5.8 per match, just above the 5.5 line.