AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Filip Misolic #530Austria1Mika Brunold #423Switzerland2

Sets 1-6 · 7-6 · 2-6Thu 10 Sept 2026, 11:25 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMika Brunold · 107 places

Filip Misolic

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 76 in February 2026. A right-foot plantar-fascia rupture interrupted his 2026 season; in mid-June he was still building toward a return.

Current ranking: #530
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 03:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Mika Brunold's strong recent clay form and Filip Misolic's rust after injury make Brunold a clear favorite.

Back Brunold to win the match and the first set, with value against the odds. The match could be competitive, but Brunold's serve and momentum should prevail.

Context

Brunold, 20, is a Swiss right-hander ranked 410 and has built his 2026 season around clay, where he holds an 18-10 record.
His recent clay sample is strong: 11 wins in 15 matches with a 57.7% games-won rate and a 42% return-points-won mark. Misolic, by contrast, has won only 4 of his last 15 matches across surfaces and has just one clay match in that window, a straight-sets win over Henri Squire. Brunold's consistency on this surface gives him a clear edge in current form, though his wins have come mostly against lower-ranked opponents.
- Brunold's last 15 matches: 11-4 record, all on clay, with 57.7% games won and 42% return points won.
- Misolic's last 15 matches: 4-11 record across surfaces, with only one clay match (a win over Henri Squire).
- Brunold's 2026 clay record is 18-10; Misolic's 2026 clay record is 1-0.
Misolic, 24, is the home player and ATP No. 537. He returned at the US Open in early September after a six-month absence following a right-foot plantar-fascia rupture.
This is his first tournament on home soil since the injury, and he beat Henri Squire on 8 September for his first win since January. The limited match play after a long layoff leaves his match fitness and consistency uncertain against Brunold.
- The 8 September Tulln win followed Misolic's return at the US Open after six months away from competition.
- His Tulln appearance is his first tournament on home soil since the injury absence.
- Stored recent sample: 1 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-02-17T00:00:00.000Z against Martin Landaluce ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharestsport.ORF.atsport.orf.at · 8 Sep 2026NÖ Open powered by EVNwww.noeopen-tulln.at · 8 Sep 2026
Misolic, 24, is an Austrian right-hander ranked 537 and has struggled on hard and indoor hard courts this season, with a 1-5 hard-court record.
In his last 15 matches, Misolic's return points won (36.9%) and second-serve points won (44.1%) are both below Brunold's marks (42% and 54.1%). On clay, Misolic's only recent match showed a strong 58.5% return points won, but that is a one-match sample. Brunold's superior return and second-serve numbers over a larger sample suggest he can pressure Misolic's serve and hold his own more comfortably.
- Misolic last 15 overall: return points won 36.9%, second-serve points won 44.1%.
- Brunold last 15 overall: return points won 42%, second-serve points won 54.1%.
- Misolic's only clay match in last 15: return points won 58.5%, but sample size is one match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Brunold's strong recent clay form and Misolic's limited recent match play after injury give Brunold a clear edge.
- Brunold last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), all on clay, with 57.7% games won.
- Misolic last 15 overall record 4-11 (26.7%), but only 1 clay match (win) in that window.
- Brunold has won 3 straight matches this tournament, including a retirement win over Miguel Damas.
- Misolic is ranked 537 vs Brunold 410, and Misolic is returning from a six-month injury absence.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve reasonably well, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Brunold's last 15 matches average 20.0 games per match (300 games / 15).
- Misolic's last 15 matches average 22.4 games per match (336 games / 15).
- Both players have similar serve hold rates, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A tight opening set with few breaks is plausible given both players' serve effectiveness.
- Brunold's recent first sets have often been close, with several tiebreaks.
- Misolic's first set in his only clay match was 6-4.
- Both players have first serve win percentages around 66-69%, indicating holds.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Brunold's strong starts and better serve numbers make him likely to take the opening set.
- Brunold has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
- Misolic's first set win rate in last 15 is low (only 4 wins total).
- Brunold's first serve points won 69.1% vs Misolic 66.1% in last 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages are near the line, and a three-set match could push the total over.
- Brunold averages 2.7 aces per match in last 15.
- Misolic averages 3.6 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 6.3 aces per match, close to the line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages are slightly above the line, and pressure situations could increase errors.
- Brunold averages 2.3 double faults per match in last 15.
- Misolic averages 3.5 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 5.8 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Filip Misolic

4W 11L

6-4 6-0#215Henri Squire 6-4 6-3 7-5#25Francisco Cerundolo

6-1 1-1 ret.#65Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-2 6-3 6-3#27Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-5 6-3#98Alexander Shevchenko

7-5 6-4—Daniel Jovanovski

6-3 6-3#85Rinky Hijikata

6-1 6-3#6Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-7(3) 6-1#86Alex Molcan

1-6 7-6(4) 6-4#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 6-4#7Alex De Minaur

7-5 7-6(6)#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-2 6-2#73Kamil Majchrzak

6-3 3-6 7-6(4)#447Viktor Durasovic

Mika Brunold

11W 4L

6-3 4-0 ret.#316Miguel Damas 7-5 6-4#443Matthew William Donald

7-6(4) 6-3#573Kai Wehnelt

7-6(3) 6-4#283Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-4#338Raphael Perot

6-2 7-6(3)#826Liam Gavrielides

6-3 6-4#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 7-6(3)#273Dominic Stricker

6-3 3-6 6-3#328Calvin Hemery

7-6(4) 6-1#416Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

6-4 6-3#267Harold Mayot

6-1 6-0#316Miguel Damas

6-2 3-6 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFilip MisolicMisolic

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Mika BrunoldBrunoldMB

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Filip Misolic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1560.9%+6.0pp66.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1566.1%+3.0pp69.1%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1544.1%+10.0pp54.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.6+0.92.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.51.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1536.9%+5.1pp42.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1530.2%+11.8pp42.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1558.8%+3.7pp62.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1547.6%+5.2pp52.8%

Serve · 1–4

60.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+6.0pp66.9%

66.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp69.1%

44.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+10.0pp54.1%

3.6Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.92.7

3.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

36.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.1pp42.0%

Pressure · 0–2

30.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+11.8pp42.0%

58.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.7pp62.5%

Points · 0–1

47.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.2pp52.8%