Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Cruz Hewitt #376Australia2Timofei Derepasko #680Russia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Thu 10 Sept 2026, 02:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCruz Hewitt · 304 places

Cruz Hewitt

Australia

Australian, age 17, right-handed and 185 cm. He made his first ATP main-draw win in Washington in July and enters Winston-Salem on a wild card.

Current ranking: #376
Peak ranking: #370 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #680
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 15:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Hewitt is the higher-ranked player but Derepasko's recent hard-court form and superior serve metrics make this closer than the odds suggest.

Avoid Hewitt at 1.25 (implied 80%, model 58%); instead consider over 21.5 total games or over 5.5 double faults. A 2-1 Hewitt win is the most likely set score if it goes three sets.

Context

Hewitt, 354th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has a 13-10 hard-court record in 2026.
His 70% win rate on hard courts in the last 15 matches is well above his 53.3% overall, and he has beaten a top-100 player in that span. However, his first-serve percentage is only 56.8% on hard, which could give Derepasko chances to attack.
- Hewitt's last-15 hard-court record is 7-3 (70%), compared to 8-7 overall.
- He defeated No. 78 Marcos Giron 6-3 6-4 on hard in July 2026.
- His hard-court first-serve percentage is 56.8%, lower than his overall 57.8%.
Hewitt's career second-serve win percentage is 50%, but his recent hard-court number is lower.
On hard courts in the last 15 matches, Hewitt has won just 46.5% of second-serve points, and his double-fault rate is 4.1 per match. Derepasko's return points won on hard is 42.4%, so he may be able to attack Hewitt's second serve.
- Hewitt's hard-court second-serve points won is 46.5% (126/271).
- He averages 4.1 double faults per hard-court match.
- Derepasko's hard-court return points won is 42.4%.
Derepasko, ranked 680th, has a 16-17 hard-court record in 2026 and is coming off three straight wins in Phan Thiet.
His 75% win rate on hard in the last 15 matches is based on only 4 matches, so it is not a reliable trend. However, he has won his last three matches without dropping a set, which suggests he is in good rhythm on this surface.
- Derepasko's last-15 hard-court record is 3-1 (75%), but only 4 matches tracked.
- He won his last three matches in Phan Thiet in straight sets, losing only 12 games total.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Cruz Hewitt

1.25fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Hewitt's ranking and hard-court record give him an edge, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Hewitt's higher ranking and stronger recent hard-court form give him a slight edge, though Derepasko's current winning streak keeps this close.
- Hewitt last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), Derepasko 9-6 (60%)
- Hewitt hard-court last 15 record 7-3 (70%), Derepasko hard-court last 15 record 3-1 (75%)
- Hewitt ranking 354 vs Derepasko 680
- Hewitt last 5: W-W-L-W-W; Derepasko last 5: W-W-W-L-W
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCruz HewittEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average around 20-21 games, and a competitive Bo3 with two solid servers should push the total over 21.5.
- Hewitt last 15 average games per match: 21.4 (321 games / 15 matches)
- Derepasko last 15 average games per match: 18.7 (281 games / 15 matches)
- Hewitt hard-court last 10 average games per match: 20.3
- Derepasko hard-court last 4 average games per match: 20.3
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been tight, with both players averaging over 9 games and showing similar serve hold rates.
- Hewitt last 15 first-set average games: 9.3
- Derepasko last 15 first-set average games: 9.1
- Both players have first-set tiebreak rates near 50%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hewitt's strong first-set conversion and recent fast starts support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Hewitt first-set win conversion career 82%, Derepasko 86%
- Hewitt hard-court first serve points won 73%, Derepasko 74.8%
- Hewitt last 5 first sets: W-L-W-W-W
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCruz HewittEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hewitt's high double fault rate (3.8 per match) combined with Derepasko's 2.1 pushes the expected total above 5.5.
- Hewitt last 15 double faults per match: 3.8
- Derepasko last 15 double faults per match: 2.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 aces per match, and hard-court conditions tend to increase ace counts, making over 7.5 slightly more likely.
- Hewitt last 15 aces per match: 3.3
- Derepasko last 15 aces per match: 3.9
- Combined average aces per match: 7.2
- Hard-court aces per match: Hewitt 4.1, Derepasko 5.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The favorite is heavily overpriced given Derepasko's recent hard-court form and superior serve metrics.

Previous match context available

Cruz Hewitt

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-1 7-5#33Arthur Fery

1-6 7-6(3) 6-4#731Sebastian Gorzny

4-6 6-2 6-3#185Clement Chidekh

6-4 6-3#700Leo Vithoontien

6-7(0) 6-1 1-0 ret.#866Axel Nefve

6-2 6-3#7Alex De Minaur

6-3 6-4#78Marcos Giron

1-6 7-6(3) 2-0 ret.#80Zachary Svajda

5-2 ret.#167Dusan Lajovic

6-1 6-4#438Quinn Vandecasteele

3-6 6-4 6-4#195Edas Butvilas

6-4 6-3#494Niels Mcdonald

2-6 6-3 6-3—Mariano Dedura-Palomero

4-6 6-3 6-2#573Kai Wehnelt

Timofei Derepasko

9W 6L

6-3 4-6 6-4#820Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#830Taiyo Yamanaka

6-2 6-0—Minhthien Nguyen

6-4 6-3—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 6-0#889Alessandro Bellifemine

6-2 6-1—Egor Shcherbakov

6-0 6-2#279Sean Cuenin

7-6(7) 5-1 ret.—Loan Lestir

6-3 6-2#600Pierre Delage

6-4 6-2—Vardan Manukyan

6-3 6-1—Mattias Pisanu

3-6 6-3 6-2—Marko Milosavljevic (SRB)

7-6(4) 6-1#496Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-3#421Semen Pankin

7-5 6-4#671Andrea De Marchi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CHCruz HewittHewitt

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Timofei DerepaskoDerepaskoTD

Timofei Derepasko carries the stronger recent form — Cruz Hewitt's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.8%+5.7pp52.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.0%+4.2pp73.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1548.0%+2.0pp50.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.3+0.63.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.81.7 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.7%+3.7pp42.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1534.9%+9.4pp44.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1555.1%+4.3pp59.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.0%+3.2pp52.2%

Serve · 1–4

57.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+5.7pp52.1%

69.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp73.2%

48.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp50.0%

3.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.63.9

3.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.7 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

38.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.7pp42.4%

Pressure · 0–2

34.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+9.4pp44.3%

55.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp59.4%

Points · 0–1

49.0%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp52.2%