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Predictions graded

Sergey Fomin #305Uzbekistan0Yi Zhou #240China2

Sets 6-7 · 5-7Tue 8 Sept 2026, 09:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYi Zhou · 65 places

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistani right-hander, born 1 February 2001. ATP/ITF profile data lists a singles career high of No. 290 in May 2026 and clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #305
Peak ranking: #290 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Yi Zhou

China

At 21, he has a career-high ranking of No. 217, reached on 25 May 2026. He is a 193 cm right-hander; no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #240
Peak ranking: #217 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Yi Zhou is favored based on recent form and H2H, but his hard-court record is shaky.

The match is likely to be close, with value on over 21.5 total games and Fomin +3.5 game handicap. Avoid backing Zhou at short odds.

Context

Fomin, 295th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has a career win rate of 54.2%.
His last five matches include three losses, and his hard-court sample shows only 50% wins with a 39.1% return points won and 31.9% break point conversion. This suggests he may struggle to create chances against Zhou's serve.
- Fomin's last 5 matches: 2 wins, 3 losses.
- Hard court last 15: 3 wins, 3 losses (50%).
- Hard court return points won: 39.1%, break points converted: 31.9%.
Zhou, 248th, is a tall right-hander with a two-handed backhand and a career win rate of 48.6%.
His hard-court record is 2-4 in the last 15, but his first-serve points won is 72.5% and he saves 66.7% of break points. This could keep him competitive even if his overall form is inconsistent.
- Zhou's hard court last 15: 2 wins, 4 losses (33.3%).
- Hard court aces per match: 7.3.
- Hard court first-serve points won: 72.5%, break points saved: 66.7%.
The two players met once before, in 2023 on hard court.
Zhou won comfortably, and his stats in that match were superior: 63% first serve, 46% return points won, and 83% first-serve points won. Fomin struggled on return, winning only 31% of return points.
- 2023 hard court match: Zhou won 6-4 6-2.
- Zhou's first-serve points won: 83%, return points won: 46%.
- Fomin's return points won: 31%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Yi Zhou

1.33fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Yi Zhou's superior recent overall form and H2H win give him the edge, though his hard-court record in the last 15 is modest.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Yi Zhou's superior recent form and H2H win give him the edge, though his hard-court record in the last 15 is modest.
- Yi Zhou won the only H2H meeting 6-4 6-2 on hard in Aug 2023.
- Yi Zhou's last 15 overall record is 8-7 (53.3%) vs Fomin's 5-10 (33.3%).
- Yi Zhou's last 15 hard-court record is 2-4, but Fomin's is 3-3 with weaker opposition.
- Yi Zhou has a higher career hard-court win total (75 vs 112) but better recent form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYi ZhouEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting a higher total games line.
- Fomin's last 15 matches average 22.1 games per match.
- Yi Zhou's last 15 matches average 24.9 games per match.
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently (Fomin 6, Zhou 7).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Fomin's competitive hard-court stats and the likelihood of a close match make the +3.5 game handicap a solid value.
- Fomin's last 15 hard-court record is 3-3 with a 52.4% games won percentage.
- Yi Zhou's last 15 hard-court record is 2-4 with a 49.4% games won percentage.
- Fomin's overall games won percentage in last 15 is 48.3% vs Zhou's 52%.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSergey Fomin +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yi Zhou's slightly better recent first-set performance and strong serve on hard courts support a narrow edge.
- Yi Zhou's first-set win conversion is 74% career vs Fomin's 85%.
- Yi Zhou has won 6 of his last 15 first sets; Fomin has won 5.
- Yi Zhou's first-serve points won on hard is 72.5% vs Fomin's 73.7%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYi ZhouEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of three-set matches in both players' recent form suggests a competitive match likely to go the distance.
- Fomin has played 6 three-set matches in his last 15.
- Yi Zhou has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15.
- Both players have similar deciding-set win rates (Fomin 52%, Zhou 34% career).
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' ace rates on hard courts suggest a combined total above 11.5 is plausible.
- Fomin averages 5.7 aces per match in last 15; Zhou averages 6.7.
- Combined average aces per match is 12.4.
- On hard courts, Fomin averages 6.3 aces and Zhou 7.3.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages hover around the line, making over 7.5 a marginal but supported pick.
- Fomin averages 4.7 double faults per match in last 15; Zhou averages 3.1.
- Combined average double faults per match is 7.8.
- On hard courts, Fomin averages 4.2 and Zhou 3.7.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-2Sergey Fomin#295vYi Zhou#248Aug 15, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Sergey Fomin

5W 10L

7-5 6-0#466Khumoun Sultanov

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4—Xirui Han

4-6 6-1 7-5#524Aziz Dougaz

6-2 6-1#398Masamichi Imamura

6-1 6-4#486Kasidit Samrej

7-5 4-1 ret.#544Maxim Zhukov

1-6 6-1 6-3#495Giuseppe La Vela

6-2 3-6 7-6(8)#305Yanki Erel

6-3 4-6 6-4#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

3-6 6-4 6-1#414Olle Wallin

6-3 7-6(5)#900Mircea-Alexandru Jecan

7-6(6) 6-1#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#236Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#701Dragos Nicolae Cazacu

6-4 6-2#257Andrej Nedic

Yi Zhou

8W 7L

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#393Ilya Ivashka

3-6 6-1 6-3#322Daniel Milavsky

6-4 7-6(6)#203Luka Pavlovic

6-1 6-4#326Michael Geerts

5-7 7-6(5) 6-3#355Tiago Pereira

6-3 3-6 6-4#297Stefan Kozlov

6-3 6-4#287Alastair Gray

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1#568Daniel De Jonge

6-4 6-3#587Robin Catry

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2 6-3#161Billy Harris

7-6(7) 6-4#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-4#213Guy Den Ouden

6-4 6-2#143Jurij Rodionov

7-6(5) 6-3#115Nicolas Mejia

6-3 6-7(6) 6-2—Benjamin Willwerth

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SFSergey FominFomin

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Yi ZhouZhouYZ

Yi Zhou carries the stronger recent form — Sergey Fomin's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In58.4%+3.8pp62.2%

1st Serve Won67.3%+2.5pp69.8%

2nd Serve Won49.3%+1.2pp50.5%

Aces / Match5.7+1.06.7

Double Faults / Match4.71.6 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.4%+2.0pp37.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.0%+4.9pp40.9%

Break Pts Saved55.7%+12.9pp68.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.8%+0.8pp50.6%

Serve · 0–5

58.4%1st Serve In+3.8pp62.2%

67.3%1st Serve Won+2.5pp69.8%

49.3%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp50.5%

5.7Aces / Match+1.06.7

4.7Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

39.4%Return Pts Won+2.0pp37.4%

Pressure · 0–2

36.0%Break Pts Converted+4.9pp40.9%

55.7%Break Pts Saved+12.9pp68.6%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won+0.8pp50.6%