Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Florent Bax #247France1Maximus Jones #489Thailand2

Sets 0-6 · 6-3 · 6-7Tue 8 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFlorent Bax · 242 places

Florent Bax

France

Bax, 27, is a right-handed French player listed at 185 cm. Ranking sources list No. 247 as both his current and career-high singles ranking in late July 2026; no reliable source in the requested search set states a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #247
Peak ranking: #247 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Maximus Jones

Thailand

Jones, 21, represents Thailand and is a right-hander. He reached a career-best No. 301 in February 2026; the available profile material does not identify a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #489
Peak ranking: #301 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Bax holds a slight edge over Jones based on superior return game, first-serve effectiveness, and ranking.

The match is expected to be close, with value in Bax to win and over 21.5 total games. Jones' ability to push sets and force tiebreaks adds risk to these bets.

Context

Bax, ranked 303, has been more consistent on hard courts recently, winning 58.3% of his last 12 matches on the surface.
Jones has a slightly better overall record in the last 15 matches (53.3% vs 60% for Bax), but his last match was a straight-set loss to Ivan Ivanov. Bax's recent hard-court sample includes wins over lower-ranked opponents and a retirement loss, suggesting he is competitive but not dominant.
- Bax's last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), hard-court record: 7-5 (58.3%).
- Jones's last 15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%), all on hard courts.
- Jones lost his most recent match 6-0 6-4 to Ivan Ivanov (ranked 530).
The two players met once before, in April 2025, with Jones winning 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4.
That result gives Jones a psychological edge, but both players have played many matches since then and their current form differs. The H2H is a minor factor given the time elapsed.
- H2H: Jones defeated Bax 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 on hard court in April 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Bax has a stronger recent overall profile and return game, giving him the edge in this hard-court matchup.
- Bax last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Jones 8-7 (53.3%)
- Bax last 15 total points won 52.4% vs Jones 50.1%
- Bax return points won 40.2% vs Jones 35.7%
- Bax ranking 303 vs Jones 489
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFlorent BaxEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with high game totals, and their only H2H went three sets.
- Bax last 15 average games per match 23.9 (359 games / 15 matches)
- Jones last 15 average games per match 22.1 (331 games / 15 matches)
- H2H 2025 match had 33 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play close opening sets, and their previous meeting featured a tiebreak.
- Bax last 15 average first set games 9.7
- Jones last 15 average first set games 9.5
- H2H first set went to tiebreak (13 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Bax's superior first-serve effectiveness and break point saving should help him take the opening set.
- Bax first set win conversion 88% career
- Bax last 15 first serve points won 74.9% vs Jones 72.1%
- Bax last 15 break points saved 64.5% vs Jones 61.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFlorent BaxEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The players are closely matched and their only previous encounter required a deciding set.
- Bax last 15 deciding set win rate 51% career
- Jones last 15 deciding set win rate 52% career
- H2H match went three sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 6 aces per match, making over 11.5 total aces likely.
- Bax last 15 aces per match 6.0
- Jones last 15 aces per match 5.9
- Combined average 11.9 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages slightly exceed the 5.5 line.
- Bax last 15 double faults per match 2.3
- Jones last 15 double faults per match 3.3
- Combined average 5.6 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have played tiebreaks regularly and their previous meeting included one.
- Bax career tiebreak win percentage 56%
- Jones career tiebreak win percentage 50%
- H2H first set went to tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-7(5) 6-4 6-4Florent Bax#303vMaximus Jones#489Apr 19, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Florent Bax

9W 6L

7-6(7) 4-3 ret.#460Moerani Bouzige

6-2 6-4#720Manish Sureshkumar

6-1 6-4—Maan Kesarwani

7-5 7-5#971Ko Suzuki

2-6 6-3 6-0#156Daniil Glinka

6-0 6-7(7) 6-4#275Ilia Simakin

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-1#556Daniil Ostapenkov

6-3 6-4#405Arthur Weber

6-4 3-6 6-2#674Gabriel Debru

7-6(3) 6-3#548Takuya Kumasaka

7-5 6-3#591Paul Inchauspe

6-2 6-1#281Dan Added

6-4 5-7 7-6(6)#584Alexander Weis

6-7(4) 6-4 6-2#885Maxence Rivet

6-7(4) 6-0 6-0—Lenny Couturier

Maximus Jones

8W 7L

6-0 6-4#530Ivan Ivanov 6-3 6-4#824Oskari Paldanius

6-2 7-5#287Alastair Gray

6-2 3-1 ret.#393Ilya Ivashka

6-0 7-6(5)#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-3 3-6 6-1#539Kokoro Isomura

6-1 4-6 6-2#888Ryota Tanuma

3-6 6-4 6-0#877Makoto Ochi

7-5 6-4#717Hunter Heck

6-4 7-5#835Jangjun Kim

6-2 6-3#1581Shunrou Takeshima

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#612Mukund Sasikumar

6-7(6) 6-3 6-1#353Philip Sekulic

6-2 6-7(5) 6-4#598Amit Vales

6-4 7-6(3)#569Sidharth Rawat

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FBFlorent BaxBax

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Maximus JonesJonesMJ

Florent Bax carries the stronger recent form — Maximus Jones's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.4%+0.9pp61.3%

1st Serve Won74.9%+2.8pp72.1%

2nd Serve Won50.7%+2.7pp48.0%

Aces / Match6.0—5.9

Double Faults / Match2.31.0 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.2%+4.5pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.0%+8.0pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved64.5%+3.3pp61.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.4%+2.3pp50.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

60.4%1st Serve In+0.9pp61.3%

74.9%1st Serve Won+2.8pp72.1%

50.7%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp48.0%

6.0Aces / Match—5.9

2.3Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

40.2%Return Pts Won+4.5pp35.7%

Pressure · 1–1

42.0%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp50.0%

64.5%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp61.2%

Points · 1–0

52.4%Total Pts Won+2.3pp50.1%