Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Timofei Derepasko #680Russia2Taiyo Yamanaka #830Japan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Mon 7 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimofei Derepasko · 150 places

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #680
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Taiyo Yamanaka

Japan

Yamanaka, 25, is the right-hander with a one-handed backhand in this matchup. Hard is listed as his preferred surface; his highest ranking was No. 745 in June 2025.

Current ranking: #830
Peak ranking: #745 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 15:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Derepasko's superior return game and recent form make him the likely winner, but the odds at 1.60 offer no value (model edge -4.5pts).

Yamanaka's longer matches and higher ace/double fault rates point to over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in set one as the best low-confidence angles.

Context

Derepasko, ranked 680, has played mostly clay recently and has a 61.5% win rate on that surface in his last 13 matches.
His hard-court sample is only two matches, so the surface switch adds uncertainty. The small sample means his strong clay results should not be treated as a reliable guide for this hard-court qualifying match.
- Derepasko's last 15 matches: 8-5 on clay, 1-1 on hard.
- His clay win rate is 61.5% (8/13), while hard is 50% (1/2).
Yamanaka, ranked 830, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand and has a career return points won of 41%.
His recent return numbers are below his career average, and against Derepasko's first serve, which wins 72.3% of points, Yamanaka may struggle to create break chances. This could lead to more service holds and tighter sets.
- Yamanaka's return points won in last 15: 37.4% (396/1058).
- Derepasko's first serve points won in last 15: 72.3% (292/404).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Timofei Derepasko

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Derepasko's stronger recent return and overall point-winning profile gives him the edge in this hard-court matchup.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Derepasko's stronger recent return and overall point-winning profile gives him the edge in this hard-court matchup.
- Derepasko last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Yamanaka 7-8 (46.7%)
- Derepasko last 15 total points won 52.6% vs Yamanaka 49.0%
- Derepasko last 15 return points won 43.6% vs Yamanaka 37.4%
- Derepasko won last match 6-2 6-0 on hard, Yamanaka won 6-4 6-4
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive first sets, with Yamanaka frequently going to tiebreaks.
- Derepasko last 15 first set average games 9.3, Yamanaka 9.7
- Yamanaka has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 first sets
- Derepasko has played 2 tiebreaks in last 15 first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yamanaka's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, pushing total games over the line.
- Derepasko last 15 average games per match 18.3, Yamanaka 22.1
- Yamanaka last 15 matches have 5 three-set matches, Derepasko 2
- Both players have similar break point save rates around 57%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derepasko's slightly better serve and return numbers in recent matches support taking the opening set.
- Derepasko first set win conversion career 85%, Yamanaka 85%
- Derepasko last 15 first serve points won 72.3% vs Yamanaka 69.7%
- Derepasko last 15 break points saved 56.9% vs Yamanaka 56.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yamanaka's higher double fault rate drives the combined total over the line.
- Derepasko last 15 double faults per match 1.8, Yamanaka 3.1
- Combined average double faults per match 4.9
- Yamanaka has 47 double faults in last 15 matches, Derepasko 25 in 14
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are near the line, with Yamanaka's higher ace count pushing the total over.
- Derepasko last 15 aces per match 3.1, Yamanaka 4.2
- Combined average aces per match 7.3
- Yamanaka has 63 aces in last 15 matches, Derepasko 44 in 14
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Timofei Derepasko

9W 6L

6-2 6-0—Minhthien Nguyen

6-4 6-3—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 6-0#889Alessandro Bellifemine

6-2 6-1—Egor Shcherbakov

6-0 6-2#279Sean Cuenin

7-6(7) 5-1 ret.—Loan Lestir

6-3 6-2#600Pierre Delage

6-4 6-2—Vardan Manukyan

6-3 6-1—Mattias Pisanu

3-6 6-3 6-2—Marko Milosavljevic (SRB)

7-6(4) 6-1#496Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-3#421Semen Pankin

7-5 6-4#671Andrea De Marchi

7-5 6-3#885Boris Butulija

7-6(5) 6-2—Luc Wieland

Taiyo Yamanaka

7W 8L

6-4 6-4—Nikita Ianin

6-2 2-0 ret.#694Shinji Hazawa

6-3 6-2—Weiyi Kong

7-5 7-5#540Shunsuke Mitsui

6-3 6-7(1) 6-1—Sergey Petrov

6-4 7-6(5)—Andrei Kunitsyn

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

7-6(2) 6-2#522Hikaru Shiraishi

6-3 6-4#1909Ren Nakamura

6-3 6-3#460Moerani Bouzige

3-6 7-5 6-4#646Chase Ferguson

6-2 7-5#854Hoyoung Roh

6-2 2-6 6-4#646Chase Ferguson

6-4 7-6(1)#612Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5)#548Takuya Kumasaka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TDTimofei DerepaskoDerepasko

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Taiyo YamanakaYamanakaTY

Timofei Derepasko carries the stronger recent form — Taiyo Yamanaka's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1552.5%+7.7pp60.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1572.3%+2.6pp69.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1551.2%+4.2pp47.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.1+1.14.2

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.81.3 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1543.6%+6.2pp37.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1539.8%+7.3pp32.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.9%—56.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.6%+3.6pp49.0%

Serve · 3–2

52.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+7.7pp60.2%

72.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.6pp69.7%

51.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.2pp47.0%

3.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.14.2

1.8Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.3 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

43.6%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+6.2pp37.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

39.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+7.3pp32.5%

56.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—56.6%

Points · 1–0

52.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp49.0%