FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Ryan Peniston #455United Kingdom0Daniil Glinka #166Estonia2

Sets 6-7 · 2-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–186%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Glinka · 289 places

Ryan Peniston

United Kingdom

Peniston, 30, is a left-hander with a two-handed backhand. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 123 in July 2022.

Current ranking: #455
Peak ranking: #123 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Daniil Glinka

Estonia

Age 26, left-handed with a one-handed backhand and 188 cm tall. The supplied profile and current public record list him at No. 166, also his verified career high; his career activity is concentrated on hard and indoor courts.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: #166
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Daniil Glinka is favored over Ryan Peniston due to superior ranking, recent form, and hard-court performance.

Glinka's strong serve should lead to over 8.5 total aces, and the match is likely to exceed 21.5 total games. Avoid betting on Glinka to win the first set at odds around 1.33, as Peniston can be competitive early.

Context

Glinka, 24, is ranked 156 and has a career 55.8% win rate. Peniston, 30, is ranked 455 and has struggled in 2026 with only 2 wins in 10 hard-court matches.
Glinka's recent hard-court record is 8-6, including wins over Pedro Martinez Portero and Harold Mayot, while Peniston is 5-9 on hard courts in his last 14. Peniston's losses have come against lower-ranked opponents like Ivan Ivanov and Carl Emil Overbeck, suggesting a form gap. However, Glinka's last two matches were losses, so his momentum is not perfect.
- Glinka's last 15 hard-court record: 8 wins, 6 losses (57.1%).
- Peniston's last 15 hard-court record: 5 wins, 9 losses (35.7%).
- Glinka beat Pedro Martinez Portero (rank 148) and Harold Mayot (267) in August 2026.
- Peniston lost to Ivan Ivanov (530) and Carl Emil Overbeck (296) in August 2026.
Peniston's first-serve percentage is 65.3% and he averages 4.2 double faults per match, which gives opponents chances.
Glinka wins 38.5% of return points overall, and Peniston's second serve is vulnerable at 46.4% points won. Glinka's first-serve points won is 73.6%, so he can hold more easily. Peniston will need to improve his serve to stay competitive.
- Peniston's first-serve points won: 64.7% (last 15 matches).
- Peniston's second-serve points won: 46.4% (last 15 matches).
- Glinka's return points won: 38.5% (last 15 matches).
- Glinka's first-serve points won: 73.6% (last 15 matches).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Daniil Glinka

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Glinka's stronger recent form, higher ranking, and better hard-court win rate give him a clear edge.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Daniil Glinka

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Glinka's first-set win rate is 66.7% over his last 15 matches, but the odds imply a much higher probability, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Glinka's stronger recent form, higher ranking, and better hard-court win rate give him a clear edge.
- Glinka last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), Peniston 5-10 (33.3%)
- Glinka hard-court last 14 record 8-6 (57.1%), Peniston hard-court last 14 record 5-9 (35.7%)
- Glinka ranking 156 vs Peniston 455
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil GlinkaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches often exceed 21.5 games, and a competitive match is likely.
- Peniston last 15 average total games per match: 21.1
- Glinka last 15 average total games per match: 23.5
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been close for both players, with several tiebreaks and extended games.
- Peniston last 15 first-set average games: 9.3
- Glinka last 15 first-set average games: 9.7
- Glinka has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Glinka has been stronger in opening sets recently, while Peniston often starts slowly.
- Glinka first-set win rate in last 15: 10 of 15 (66.7%)
- Peniston first-set win rate in last 15: 6 of 15 (40%)
- Glinka first-set win conversion career 82%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniil GlinkaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Glinka's strong serve should produce enough aces to push the total over 8.5.
- Glinka last 15 aces per match: 6.9
- Peniston last 15 aces per match: 1.7
- Combined average aces per match: 8.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average enough double faults to make over 6.5 likely.
- Peniston last 15 double faults per match: 4.2
- Glinka last 15 double faults per match: 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Ryan Peniston

5W 10L

6-2 6-3#296Carl Emil Overbeck

6-0 3-6 6-4#530Ivan Ivanov

6-3 3-0 ret.#259Max Basing

6-2 6-4#811Francisco Rocha

6-1 6-3#752Rodrigo Alujas

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#270Hynek Barton

6-3 6-2#94Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-4 6-4#567Hyeon Chung

6-1 6-1#59Roman Andres Burruchaga

4-6 7-6(9) 6-4#460Moerani Bouzige

6-2 6-7(4) 1-1 ret.#204Elias Ymer

6-3 6-2#88Sho Shimabukuro

7-5 3-6 6-2#324Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

6-0 6-1#548Takuya Kumasaka

Daniil Glinka

8W 7L

7-6(3) 6-3#208Daniel Rincon

6-3 5-7 6-4#118Zsombor Piros

6-3 6-2#148Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 6-3#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-3 6-4#267Harold Mayot

6-4 6-3#204Elias Ymer

2-6 6-3 6-0#303Florent Bax

0-6 6-3 6-4#187Andrea Guerrieri

7-6(4) 6-4#523Alexander Donski

7-5 1-6 6-4#598Amit Vales

6-4 3-6 6-1#559Fares Zakaria

6-1 1-6 6-3#353Philip Sekulic

7-6(2) 6-3#399Garrett Johns

6-4 6-4#124Bu Yunchaokete

6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#344Edward Winter

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RPRyan PenistonPeniston

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniil GlinkaGlinkaDG

Daniil Glinka carries the stronger recent form — Ryan Peniston's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In65.3%+6.1pp59.2%

1st Serve Won64.7%+8.9pp73.6%

2nd Serve Won46.4%+4.1pp50.5%

Aces / Match1.7+5.26.9

Double Faults / Match4.20.9 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.9%+3.4pp38.5%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted38.4%—38.6%

Break Pts Saved53.1%+3.9pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.7%+1.3pp51.0%

Serve · 1–4

65.3%1st Serve In+6.1pp59.2%

64.7%1st Serve Won+8.9pp73.6%

46.4%2nd Serve Won+4.1pp50.5%

1.7Aces / Match+5.26.9

4.2Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

41.9%Return Pts Won+3.4pp38.5%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

38.4%Break Pts Converted—38.6%

53.1%Break Pts Saved+3.9pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.0%