AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Mika Brunold #423Switzerland2Matthew William Donald #461Czechia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Mon 7 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMika Brunold · 38 places

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Matthew William Donald

Czechia

ITF lists Donald as a right-handed player whose preferred surface is grass. Public ranking records show a career-best No. 455 in July 2026; no current injury or decline narrative was identified.

Current ranking: #461
Peak ranking: #455 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Brunold is a slight favorite due to his clay pedigree and H2H win, but Donald's identical recent form and stronger return game keep it close.

Expect a competitive match likely to go over 21.5 total games, with Brunold's serving edge being the key differentiator.

Context

Brunold, 410th, and Donald, 443rd, are both right-handed players who rely on consistent baseline play rather than big serving.
Their last-15 clay samples are nearly identical: both won 66.7% of matches, and Donald's 52.3% total points won is only slightly above Brunold's 51.7%. Donald has been more effective on return points (44.1% vs 40.6%), but Brunold has a stronger first-serve points won rate (68.8% vs 66.4%). This suggests a close match where small serving or returning differences could decide key games.
- Brunold: 10-5 record in last 15 clay matches, 51.7% total points won.
- Donald: 10-5 record in last 15 clay matches, 52.3% total points won.
- Donald's return points won (44.1%) is higher than Brunold's (40.6%).
- Brunold's first-serve points won (68.8%) is higher than Donald's (66.4%).
Donald's second serve has been a liability recently, with a low 48.5% second-serve points won rate.
Donald's 4.7 double faults per match is significantly higher than Brunold's 2.7, and his second-serve points won (48.5%) is below Brunold's 51.6%. If Donald struggles with his second serve, Brunold could earn more break opportunities, especially since Brunold converts 43.1% of break points. This could be a decisive factor in a close match.
- Donald: 4.7 double faults per match in last 15 clay matches.
- Brunold: 2.7 double faults per match in last 15 clay matches.
- Donald's second-serve points won: 48.5%; Brunold's: 51.6%.
- Brunold's break point conversion: 43.1%.
The two players met once before, in February 2024 at a hard-court event.
Brunold won that match despite dropping the first set, converting 67% of break points compared to Donald's 55%. However, that match was on hard court, and this is clay, so the surface change may reduce the relevance of that result. Still, Brunold's ability to turn the match around could give him confidence if he falls behind early.
- H2H: Brunold leads 1-0, winning 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 on 2024-02-23.
- Brunold converted 67% of break points in that match; Donald converted 55%.
- The match was on hard court, while this match is on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Mika Brunold

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Brunold's superior clay pedigree and H2H win give a slight edge, though recent form is nearly identical.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Brunold's superior clay pedigree and H2H win give a slight edge, though recent form is nearly identical.
- Last 15 on clay: Brunold 10-5, Donald 10-5 (identical record)
- Brunold holds 1-0 H2H edge (2024 hard court, 4-6 6-3 6-4)
- Brunold ranking 410 vs Donald 443; Brunold has higher career clay win% (84 wins vs 66)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined average games per match suggests a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Brunold last 15 avg games per match: 21.9 (328 games / 15 matches)
- Donald last 15 avg games per match: 21.4 (321 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been competitive, with average games near 9.5, making over 9.5 slightly more likely.
- Brunold first set avg games: 9.4 (last 15 matches)
- Donald first set avg games: 9.3 (last 15 matches)
- Both players have had several tiebreaks and close first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Donald's stronger return game and similar recent form make +3.5 games a reasonable cover.
- Brunold last 15 avg games won per match: 12.0
- Donald last 15 avg games won per match: 12.3
- Donald's return points won (44.1%) is higher than Brunold's (40.6%)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMatthew William Donald +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean to Brunold based on H2H and clay experience, but first set is close to a coin flip.
- Brunold first set win conversion 86% career; Donald 88%
- Brunold won first set in 10 of last 15 matches; Donald in 10 of last 15
- Both players have similar first-set performance recently
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Donald's high double fault rate makes over 6.5 total double faults likely.
- Brunold averages 2.7 double faults per match (last 15)
- Donald averages 4.7 double faults per match (last 15)
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Over 5.5 aces requires above-average serving from both, but possible in a longer match.
- Brunold averages 2.7 aces per match (last 15)
- Donald averages 0.9 aces per match (last 15)
- Combined average aces per match: 3.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W4-6 6-3 6-4Mika Brunold#410vMatthew William Donald#443Feb 23, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mika Brunold

10W 5L

7-6(4) 6-3#573Kai Wehnelt

7-6(3) 6-4#283Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-4#338Raphael Perot

6-2 7-6(3)#826Liam Gavrielides

6-3 6-4#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 7-6(3)#273Dominic Stricker

6-3 3-6 6-3#328Calvin Hemery

7-6(4) 6-1#416Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

6-4 6-3#267Harold Mayot

6-1 6-0#316Miguel Damas

6-2 3-6 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-4#392Georgii Kravchenko

4-6 6-2 6-3#532Ryan Nijboer

Matthew William Donald

10W 5L

6-2 6-2#546Jelle Sels

6-4 6-2#419Benjamin Hassan

4-6 6-1 7-5#654Giorgio Tabacco

7-5 4-6 6-3#439Nerman Fatic

6-0 4-6 6-3#613Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

2-6 6-3 6-4#490Louis Wessels

6-3 6-4#561Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-2 6-3#629Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-2 6-4#607Lorenzo Bocchi

7-6(9) 6-3#414Olle Wallin

6-4 6-0—Christopher Thies

7-5 6-3#387Max Wiskandt

6-4 6-2#636Adrian Oetzbach

6-4 5-7 6-1#425Ioannis Xilas

6-1 6-2#724Nikolai Barsukov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMika BrunoldBrunold

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Matthew William DonaldDonaldMD

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In65.6%+2.2pp67.8%

1st Serve Won68.8%+2.4pp66.4%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+3.1pp48.5%

Aces / Match2.7+1.80.9

Double Faults / Match2.72.0 fewer4.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.6%+3.5pp44.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.1%+8.9pp52.0%

Break Pts Saved56.9%+5.1pp62.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.7%—52.3%

Serve · 4–1

65.6%1st Serve In+2.2pp67.8%

68.8%1st Serve Won+2.4pp66.4%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp48.5%

2.7Aces / Match+1.80.9

2.7Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer4.7

Return · 0–1

40.6%Return Pts Won+3.5pp44.1%

Pressure · 0–2

43.1%Break Pts Converted+8.9pp52.0%

56.9%Break Pts Saved+5.1pp62.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.7%Total Pts Won—52.3%