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Predictions graded

Matthew Dellavedova #299Australia0Taro Daniel #186Japan2

Sets 3-6 · 1-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 10:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTaro Daniel · 113 places

Matthew Dellavedova

Australia

Dellavedova, ranked No. 299 in the supplied match data, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand. Reliable public age, career-high and preferred-surface information could not be verified.

Current ranking: #299
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Taro Daniel

Japan

Daniel was born on 27 January 1993 and has reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 58. The supplied current ranking is No. 186.

Current ranking: #186
Peak ranking: #58
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Dellavedova's superior recent hard-court form and slightly better serve metrics give him a narrow edge over Daniel despite the ranking gap.

The best betting angle is Dellavedova to win at 3.80 odds, offering a 28.7-point edge over the model's 55% probability. Expect a competitive match with potential for over 21.5 total games.

Context

Dellavedova, ranked 293, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand and has a career win percentage of 57.7%.
His recent hard-court run includes wins over players ranked outside the top 400, but losses to higher-ranked opponents like Ilia Simakin and Yu Hsiou Hsu. This suggests he can dominate weaker opposition but may struggle against a more experienced player like Daniel.
- Last 15 matches: 11-4 record, all on hard courts.
- Wins include 6-1 6-2 over Kasidit Samrej (rank 486) and 6-2 6-2 over Tai Sach (rank 516).
- Losses to Ilia Simakin (rank 275) and Yu Hsiou Hsu (rank 268).
Daniel, ranked 160, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has a career win percentage of 57.5%.
His recent wins include victories over Jacob Fearnley (rank 101) and Jan Choinski (rank 76), showing he can compete at a higher level. However, his last match was a loss to Andrew Johnson (rank 805), which may indicate some inconsistency.
- Last 15 matches: 11-4 record.
- Wins over Jacob Fearnley (rank 101) and Jan Choinski (rank 76).
- Recent loss to Andrew Johnson (rank 805) on August 26.
Daniel's return points won percentage is 44.2% over his last 15 matches, while Dellavedova's is 40.5%.
This suggests Daniel may be more effective at breaking serve, which could be crucial in a match where both players have similar overall records. However, Dellavedova's first serve percentage is higher (67.6% vs 59.8%), so he may be able to protect his serve better.
- Daniel return points won: 44.2% (last 15).
- Dellavedova return points won: 40.5% (last 15).
- Dellavedova first serve in: 67.6%; Daniel first serve in: 59.8%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.80
The read
Dellavedova's superior recent hard-court volume and slightly better serve metrics give him a narrow edge despite the ranking gap.
- Dellavedova last 15 on hard: 11-4 record, 58% games won, 68.7% first serve points won
- Daniel last 15 on hard: 5-2 record, 57% games won, 67.9% first serve points won
- Dellavedova ranking 293 vs Daniel 160, but Dellavedova has won 8 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMatthew DellavedovaEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are competitive on hard courts with similar games won rates, suggesting a match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Dellavedova last 15 average duration 121.1 minutes, games per match 20.9
- Daniel last 15 average duration 102.6 minutes, games per match 21.3
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 57-58%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown ability to extend first sets, with Daniel's recent first sets averaging near the over line.
- Dellavedova recent hard matches often feature 10+ games in first set
- Daniel's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Daniel's recent hard-court form and competitive games won percentage make him a solid underdog with a +2.5 game handicap.
- Daniel's last 15 games won percentage 57.4% vs Dellavedova's 58%
- Daniel has won 5 of last 7 hard court matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTaro Daniel +2.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dellavedova's strong first-set conversion and slightly better first-serve performance support a small edge in the opening set.
- Dellavedova first set win conversion career 89%, last 15 first serve points won 68.7%
- Daniel first set win conversion career 84%, last 15 first serve points won 66.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatthew DellavedovaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average fewer than 2 double faults per match, making the under 3.5 line likely.
- Dellavedova last 15 double faults per match 1.2
- Daniel last 15 double faults per match 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match 3.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players slightly exceed the 5.5 line, making the over a reasonable low-confidence play.
- Dellavedova last 15 aces per match 3.1
- Daniel last 15 aces per match 2.7
- Combined average aces per match 5.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Matthew Dellavedova

11W 4L

7-5 6-2#275Ilia Simakin 4-6 6-3 4-1 ret.#461Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 4-6 6-4—Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-2#486Kasidit Samrej

6-4 6-2#880Kristjan Tamm

6-2 6-2#516Tai Sach

6-1 6-2#672Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 6-2#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-5 6-2#540Shunsuke Mitsui

6-2 6-4#516Tai Sach

6-1 6-2—Hiromasa Koyama

7-6(1) 6-0—Jeffrey Hsu

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#821Kousuke Ogura

6-4 1-6 7-6(3)#694Shinji Hazawa

7-5 7-6(3)—Matthew Shearer

Taro Daniel

11W 4L

2-6 6-2 6-4#805Andrew Johnson

6-4 7-6(8)#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-1#101Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-3#76Jan Choinski

6-3 6-2#492Duncan Chan

7-6(4) 2-6 6-1#167Dusan Lajovic

7-5 6-3—Maxime St-Hilaire

6-4 3-6 6-3#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-2#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-6(0) 6-4#70Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-2 2-6 6-2#347Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-0 6-2#897Federico Coria

4-6 6-2 6-2#75Valentin Royer

6-4 6-3#175Zdenek Kolar

6-0 6-4#223Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMatthew DellavedovaDellavedova

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Taro DanielDanielTD

Matthew Dellavedova carries the stronger recent form — Taro Daniel's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In67.6%+7.8pp59.8%

1st Serve Won68.7%+2.3pp66.4%

2nd Serve Won57.6%+3.0pp54.6%

Aces / Match3.1+0.42.7

Double Faults / Match1.20.7 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.5%+3.7pp44.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted48.5%+6.0pp54.5%

Break Pts Saved61.5%+1.8pp63.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won53.0%—52.9%

Serve · 5–0

67.6%1st Serve In+7.8pp59.8%

68.7%1st Serve Won+2.3pp66.4%

57.6%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp54.6%

3.1Aces / Match+0.42.7

1.2Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

40.5%Return Pts Won+3.7pp44.2%

Pressure · 0–2

48.5%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp54.5%

61.5%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp63.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.0%Total Pts Won—52.9%