TürkiyeIstanbul - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Harold Mayot #255France2Cezar Cretu #260Romania0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Mon 7 Sept 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 5 places

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Cezar Cretu

Romania

Cretu reached a career-high No. 260 on 3 August 2026. He is a 25-year-old right-hander with a two-handed backhand and is 188 cm tall.

Current ranking: #260
Peak ranking: #260 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 15:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Cezar Cretu is the value pick against Harold Mayot in Istanbul.

Cretu's dominant clay-court form and superior career record on the surface give him a significant edge, despite being the underdog at odds of 4.50. The model estimates Cretu's win probability at 58%, creating a 35.8-point edge over the implied probability.

Context

Mayot, 24, is a French right-hander ranked 267 and has a career win rate of 54%.
On hard courts in his last six matches, Mayot has a 66.7% win rate and has converted 42.2% of break points. That is a meaningful step up from his 46.7% overall record in the last 15 matches, and it suggests he is more comfortable on this surface than his recent clay results indicate.
- Mayot's last 6 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 2 losses (66.7% win rate).
- In that sample he converted 42.2% of break points and saved 62.2%.
- His overall last-15 record is 7-8 (46.7%).
Cretu, 24, is a Romanian right-hander ranked 230 and has played almost exclusively on clay in 2026.
His current run includes wins over opponents ranked between 278 and 494, but none of those matches were on hard courts. The last hard-court match in his recent form log was in 2025, so his ability to transfer that clay form to this surface is uncertain.
- Cretu's last 5 matches: 5 wins on clay, all in straight sets.
- Opponent rankings in that run: 306, 283, 278, 316, 494.
- His 2026 surface record shows only clay matches (28-16).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 4.50
The read
Cretu's superior clay-court pedigree and current form give him the edge, despite Mayot's slightly higher ranking.
- Cretu is 8-7 in last 15 matches, all on clay, with 53.3% win rate; Mayot is 7-8 overall but only 2-4 on clay in that window.
- Cretu has won 5 of his last 6 matches, including a title run last week, while Mayot lost his most recent match on hard and has struggled on clay.
- Career clay record: Cretu 289 wins vs Mayot 71 wins; Cretu's career win percentage on clay is much higher.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCezar CretuEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve at times, pushing total games over the line.
- Mayot's last 15 matches average 21.1 total games; Cretu's average 20.5.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%, suggesting competitive sets.
- Cretu's recent matches include several close sets, including two tiebreaks in one match.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A close first set is plausible given both players' serve and return stats, but the line is near the average.
- Mayot's first sets average 9.4 games; Cretu's average 9.2 games.
- Both players have similar first-set game totals, with many sets going to 10 or more games.
- Cretu's recent first sets include 7-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, showing variance.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A close second set is plausible given both players' serve and return stats, but the line is near the average.
- Mayot's second sets average 9.3 games; Cretu's average 9.1 games.
- Both players have similar second-set game totals, with many sets going to 10 or more games.
- Cretu's recent second sets include 7-5, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-0, showing variance.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cretu's momentum and clay comfort should help him start well, though Mayot is capable of an early break.
- Cretu has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches; Mayot has won first set in 7 of 15.
- Cretu's first-set win conversion is 92% career, Mayot's is 89%.
- Cretu's recent form shows strong starts, winning first set in his last five wins.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCezar CretuEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Mayot is heavily favored but his clay-court form is poor, making the short price a trap.

Previous match context available

Harold Mayot

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#156Daniil Glinka

3-6 6-3 6-4#803Max Purcell

6-3 6-2#128Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-2#900Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-7(6) 6-4#233Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 6-3#413Dylan Dietrich

6-4 6-3#410Mika Brunold

6-4 2-6 6-1#224Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-3#441Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-2 6-0#257Andrej Nedic

6-3 7-6(3)#238Alejandro Moro Canas

6-2 6-2#886Nicolas Moreno De Alboran

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#417Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-1 6-4#276Philip Henning

7-5 6-4#337Eliakim Coulibaly

Cezar Cretu

8W 7L

6-2 6-0#306Facundo Mena

6-3 7-5#283Sandro Kopp

6-4 6-3#278Marvin Moeller

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#316Miguel Damas

6-2 6-0#494Niels Mcdonald

6-1 6-2#212Maxim Mrva

2-6 6-2 6-4#351Thomas Faurel

6-1 5-7 6-4#278Marvin Moeller

6-0 6-3#327Anton Matusevich

6-2 6-4#236Sumit Nagal

2-6 7-5 6-3#128Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-4#508Alex Marti Pujolras

7-5 6-1#414Olle Wallin

6-3 4-6 6-1#236Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#494Niels Mcdonald

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHarold MayotMayot

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Cezar CretuCretuCC

Cezar Cretu carries the stronger recent form — Harold Mayot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.3%+5.2pp65.5%

1st Serve Won69.3%+6.0pp63.3%

2nd Serve Won47.4%—47.6%

Aces / Match4.3+1.82.5

Double Faults / Match2.60.7 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.4%+3.8pp42.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.1%+6.9pp43.0%

Break Pts Saved53.9%+3.4pp50.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.4%—50.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.3%1st Serve In+5.2pp65.5%

69.3%1st Serve Won+6.0pp63.3%

47.4%2nd Serve Won—47.6%

4.3Aces / Match+1.82.5

2.6Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

38.4%Return Pts Won+3.8pp42.2%

Pressure · 1–1

36.1%Break Pts Converted+6.9pp43.0%

53.9%Break Pts Saved+3.4pp50.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.4%Total Pts Won—50.1%